AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#23Away
Vanderbilt
0-0 · AVR 66.9
28p
#31Home
Auburn
0-0 · AVR 62.1
26p
VAN 55%45% AUB
Spread
VAN -1.9
Total
54
Moneyline
VAN-124AUB+124
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← VAN advantageevenAUB advantage →
VAN throw
VAN WR #7AUB pass rush #18
VAN +6
VAN run
AUB +13
AUB throw
AUB protection #51VAN pass rush #13
AUB +16
AUB run
VAN +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when VAN runs
Sedrick Alexander
vs
Xavier Atkins
RB · VAN
MLB · AUB
81.4
93.4
AUB +12
off the edge· hunting Berlowitz
Gunner Givens
vs
Cody Sigler
LT · VAN
EDGE · AUB
78.0
92.0
AUB +14
when AUB throws
Keshaun Singleton
vs
Ricardo Jones
X · AUB
CB1 · VAN
86.7
79.0
AUB +8
when AUB runs
Jeremiah Cobb
vs
Nick Rinaldi
RB · AUB
MLB · VAN
78.7
76.8
dead even
when VAN throws
Junior Sherrill
vs
Fred Gaskin III
X · VAN
CB1 · AUB
86.4
66.3
VAN +20
off the edge· hunting Brown
Jacob Strand
vs
Miles Capers
LT · AUB
EDGE · VAN
53.1
83.8
VAN +31

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Vanderbilt
WRJunior Sherrill
86.410/777
RBSedrick Alexander
81.418/514
SRicardo Jones
79.0100/1427
LBNick Rinaldi
76.890/878
LBBryan Longwell
74.7109/878
TECole Spence
71.310/287
Auburn
LBXavier Atkins
93.44/878
WRKeshaun Singleton
86.79/777
WRJeremiah Koger
83.116/777
QBByrum Brown
81.319/308
RBJeremiah Cobb
78.729/514
LBColeman Granberry
78.082/878

also out — Fly, Tai Buster (OL), tight end (TE), Auburn Linebacker Likely, Auburn edge rusher (DL), Auburn linebacker (LB), J.J. Faulk (EDGE), Auburn RB (RB) +3 more

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Vanderbilt
opponent
Auburn
home-2.1
Ole Miss#14
-11.5away
home-3.3
Alabama#12
-12.7away
home-1.3
Tennessee#17
-10.7away
away-16.4
Georgia#3
-20.8away
home+10.0
Arkansas#40
+5.6home
away+5.5
Mississippi State#45
+1.1away
away-1.8
Florida#25
-1.2home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKVAN +1.995% interval: -25.8 to 2280% interval: -19.3 to 15.5-19+16VAN wins 55%AUB wins 45%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AUB 28–28 VANAUB 25–53 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 28–49 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 32–46 VAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAUB 35–42 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 39–39 VAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAUB 42–35 VAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAUB 46–32 VAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 49–28 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 53–25 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAUB 21–49 VAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 25–46 VAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 28–42 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 32–39 VAN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAUB 35–35 VAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAUB 39–32 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 42–28 VAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAUB 46–25 VAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAUB 49–21 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAUB 18–46 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 21–42 VAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 25–39 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 28–35 VAN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAUB 32–32 VAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAUB 35–28 VAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAUB 39–25 VAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAUB 42–21 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 46–18 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 14–42 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 18–39 VAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAUB 21–35 VAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAUB 25–32 VAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAUB 28–28 VAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAUB 32–25 VAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAUB 35–21 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 39–18 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAUB 42–14 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 11–39 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 14–35 VAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAUB 18–32 VAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAUB 21–28 VAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAUB 25–25 VAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAUB 28–21 VAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 32–18 VAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAUB 35–14 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAUB 39–11 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 7–35 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 11–32 VAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAUB 14–28 VAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAUB 18–25 VAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 21–21 VAN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAUB 25–18 VAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAUB 28–14 VAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAUB 32–11 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 35–7 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 4–32 VAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 7–28 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAUB 11–25 VAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAUB 14–21 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 18–18 VAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAUB 21–14 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 25–11 VAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 28–7 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 32–4 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalVAN +28VAN +14PKAUB +14AUB +28margin →