AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#23Away
Vanderbilt
0-0 · AVR 66.9
34p
#67Home
Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 49.8
22p
VAN 80%20% UK
Spread
VAN -12.5
Total
56
Moneyline
VAN-410UK+410
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← VAN advantageevenUK advantage →
VAN throw
VAN WR #7UK pass rush #49
VAN +23
VAN run
VAN +18
UK throw
UK protection #32VAN pass rush #13
VAN +29
UK run
UK backs #105
VAN +33

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Minchey
Coleton Price
vs
Miles Capers
LT · UK
EDGE · VAN
85.1
83.8
dead even
off the edge· hunting Berlowitz
Gunner Givens
vs
Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace
LT · VAN
EDGE · UK
78.0
84.7
UK +7
when VAN throws
Junior Sherrill
vs
Jesse Anderson III
X · VAN
CB1 · UK
86.4
70.2
VAN +16
when VAN runs
Sedrick Alexander
vs
Lorenzo Cowan
RB · VAN
MLB · UK
81.4
66.0
VAN +15
when UK runs
CJ Baxter
vs
Nick Rinaldi
RB · UK
MLB · VAN
52.0
76.8
VAN +25
when UK throws
Nic Anderson
vs
Ricardo Jones
X · UK
CB1 · VAN
45.6
79.0
VAN +33

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Vanderbilt
WRJunior Sherrill
86.410/777
RBSedrick Alexander
81.418/514
SRicardo Jones
79.0100/1427
LBNick Rinaldi
76.890/878
LBBryan Longwell
74.7109/878
TECole Spence
71.310/287
Kentucky
DBJesse Anderson III
70.2234/1427
DBTy Bryant
68.1277/1427
LBLorenzo Cowan
66.0199/878
LBSam Greene
65.4207/878
QBKenny Minchey
53.8109/308
RBCJ Baxterprobable
52.0227/514

also out — T. Mizell (RB), Jovantae Barnes (RB)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Vanderbilt
opponent
Kentucky
home-1.3
Tennessee#17
-21.3away
home-3.3
Alabama#12
-18.4home
away-1.8
Florida#25
-11.9home

Projected margin

80% between -30 and 5
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKVAN +12.595% interval: -36.4 to 11.480% interval: -29.9 to 4.8-30+5VAN wins 80%UK wins 20%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ VAN 35–21 UKUK 18–60 VAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUK 21–56 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 25–53 VAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 28–49 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 32–46 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUK 35–42 VAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 39–39 VAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUK 42–35 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 46–32 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 14–56 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 18–53 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 21–49 VAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUK 25–46 VAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUK 28–42 VAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUK 32–39 VAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUK 35–35 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 39–32 VAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUK 42–28 VAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 11–53 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 14–49 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 18–46 VAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 21–42 VAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUK 25–39 VAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUK 28–35 VAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUK 32–32 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUK 35–28 VAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 39–25 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUK 7–49 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 11–46 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 14–42 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 18–39 VAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUK 21–35 VAN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUK 25–32 VAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUK 28–28 VAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 32–25 VAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUK 35–21 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 4–46 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 7–42 VAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 11–39 VAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 14–35 VAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUK 18–32 VAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUK 21–28 VAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUK 25–25 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUK 28–21 VAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 32–18 VAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUK 0–42 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 4–39 VAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUK 7–35 VAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUK 11–32 VAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 14–28 VAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUK 18–25 VAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUK 21–21 VAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 25–18 VAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUK 28–14 VAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UK 0–35 VAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 4–32 VAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUK 7–28 VAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 11–25 VAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUK 14–21 VAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 18–18 VAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUK 21–14 VAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 25–11 VAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalVAN +42VAN +28VAN +14PKUK +14margin →