CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
VAN 55.4%44.6% UK
Projected margin
VAN by 2.0
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
VAN 21 to UK 17
Win probability
VAN 55.4%

Current team profiles

Vanderbilt
Kentucky

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Passing

UK defense
Higher-ranked profile
VAN offense
#76
UK defense
#60
EPA comparison
0.20
#76
0.11
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

VAN offense
Higher-ranked profile
VAN offense
#79
UK defense
#81
EPA comparison
0.09
#79
0.06
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

VAN offense
Higher-ranked profile
VAN offense
#102
UK defense
#109
Success rates
40%
#102
44%
#109
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#105
0.04
#56
EPA / play
1.25
#57
1.17
#44
Explosiveness
16%
#101
18%
#36
Havoc

When Kentucky has the ball

Passing

UK offense
Higher-ranked profile
VAN defense
#93
UK offense
#66
EPA comparison
0.22
#93
0.24
#66
Pass EPA

Rushing

UK offense
Higher-ranked profile
VAN defense
#81
UK offense
#35
EPA comparison
0.06
#81
0.19
#35
Rush EPA

Drive success

UK offense
Higher-ranked profile
VAN defense
#97
UK offense
#20
Success rates
43%
#97
50%
#20
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#92
0.21
#43
EPA / play
1.22
#72
1.15
#106
Explosiveness
15%
#83
13%
#39
Havoc

Current key players

Vanderbilt
QBWhit Muschamp
18 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
73.9121/729
TEMaurice Veney
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.9
Run blocking
78.6
Penalties
0
82.818/1017
SCJ Heard
40 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
86.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
116
Passer rating allowed
121.1
Missed tackles
4
80.951/2969
SMason Lewis
20 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.8
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
72
Passer rating allowed
77.6
Missed tackles
3
79.274/2969
LBBryan Longwell
31 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
65.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
75.7163/1796
SRicardo Jones
22 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
80.4
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
43
Passer rating allowed
94.1
Missed tackles
5
75.1190/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Kahden Smith · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Smith has been out of the lineup due to a leg injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

  • J. Curtis · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Curtis is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

Kentucky
QBKenny Minchey
1148 yds · 11 TD · 1 INT
63.0239/729
RBJason Patterson
355 yds · 3 TD · 7.9 YPC
86.228/1044
WRKenny Darby
25 rec · 322 yds · 3 TD
81.147/2069
TEElijah Brown
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
66.8
Run blocking
78.1
Penalties
0
80.524/1017
LBAntwan Smith
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.9
Coverage
64.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.9220/1796
LBSam Greene
17 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.3
Coverage
66.7
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
68
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
2
73.6234/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Tovani Mizell · RBout · 2026-08-22

    Mizell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Lincoln Watkins · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Sooners on Saturday, October

Position units

Position-unit comparison

VAN
UK
vs
Offense
73.9
#86 of 138
QB
63.0
#126 of 138
69.7
#123 of 138
RB
81.1
#30 of 138
66.9
#122 of 138
WR
70.6
#75 of 138
82.8
#18 of 138
TE
80.5
#24 of 138
61.2
#126 of 138
OL
74.5
#20 of 138
Defense
71.4
#92 of 138
DL
71.6
#90 of 138
69.4
#107 of 138
LB
71.1
#95 of 138
76.1
#24 of 138
DB
70.3
#92 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Vanderbilt
opponent
Kentucky
H-13.4
ALA#3
-28.0H
H-5.5
TENN#21
-15.5A
A-4.0
FLA#22
-3.4H