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SEC

Mississippi State

Bulldogs4-111th in SEC
Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville, MS · 61,337
TeamCarried by the offense
OffenseEfficient and explosive · strong
DefenseBend-don't-break · weak

The season

Best win
W 31-24 vs #15 Missouri
Wk 4 · Sep 26 · model had 85%
Worst loss
L 23-56 vs #3 Alabama
Wk 5 · Oct 3 · model had 38%

Schedule

model 5/5 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsUL Monroe
    W 62–13
    Win chance 96%Model margin +23.2Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    atMinnesota
    W 38–13
    Win chance 56%Model margin +2.0Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    atSouth Carolina
    W 41–34
    Win chance 55%Model margin +1.6Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsMissouri
    W 31–24
    Win chance 85%Model margin +14.1Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsAlabama
    L 23–56
    Win chance 38%Model margin -4.1Game details
  6. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atLSU
    Win chance 23%Model margin -10.0Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsOklahoma
    Win chance 43%Model margin -2.6Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atTexas
    Win chance 17%Model margin -13.0Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsVanderbilt
    Win chance 56%Model margin +2.1Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsAuburn
    Win chance 54%Model margin +1.4Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsTennessee Tech
    Win chance >99%Model margin +41.8Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 27
    atOle Miss
    Win chance 29%Model margin -7.6Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
81
#13 of 138
Defense efficiency
50
#66 of 138
Efficiency
#240.28
EPA / play
#880.09
#190.43
Pass
#750.16
#300.20
Rush
#730.05
#2948%
Success
#7841%
Big plays & havoc
#271.32
Explosive
#401.16
#6314%
Havoc
#4317%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB89th
RB3rd
WR32nd
TE92nd
OL113th
DL66th
LB126th
DB22nd

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Kamario TaylorSO
1450 yds · 17 TD · 4 INT
73.0
130th QB
RB
J.J. HillFR
124 yds · 2 TD · 12.4 YPC
90.0
9th RB
WR
Anthony Evans IIISR
40 rec · 574 yds · 5 TD
82.8
34th WR
WR
Zion CrumptonFR
2 rec · 35 yds · 0 TD
72.9
173rd WR
TE
Joeseph SkipworthFR
3 rec · 26 yds · 0 TD
64.6
166th TE
Defense
LB
Fatt ForrestSO
14 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
71.6
300th LB
LB
Derion GulletteJR
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
64.4
639th LB
CB
Jett JeffersonJR
25 tkl · 8 PD · 0 INT
85.1
24th DB
S
Jardin GilbertSR
26 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
77.8
100th DB
S
Isaac SmithSR
17 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
75.6
171st DB

Injury report

3 out
out
A. WilliamsWR

Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely to play Saturday against the Alabama.

51.7202510-01
out
Trevion WilliamsDL

Williams is sidelined due to Leg injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

69.209-26
out
Bull MitchellWR

Mitchell is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

—09-20
Ques.
Jamari FreemanOG

Freeman is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against LSU on Saturday, October 10th.

48.810-03

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atLSU
    Playoff chance if win
    3.2%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsOklahoma
    Playoff chance if win
    2.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.3%
  3. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atTexas
    Playoff chance if win
    3.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.5%
  4. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsVanderbilt
    Playoff chance if win
    1.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.3%
  5. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsAuburn
    Playoff chance if win
    1.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.3%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 27
    atOle Miss
    Playoff chance if win
    2.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%

Past seasons

Year by year
-6.4 points since 2022
405365789070.4202260.4202355.2202464.02025
2022 70.42023 60.42024 55.22025 64.0

2025

5-7
D-I rank
#55
Rating
64.0
Listed games · 12
WWWWLLLLWLLL
366 pts scored350 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at Southern MissW 34–17
  2. W2 vs Arizona StateW 24–20
  3. W3 vs Alcorn StateW 63–0
  4. W4 vs Northern IllinoisW 38–10
  5. W5 vs TennesseeL 34–41
  6. W6 at Texas A&ML 9–31
  7. W8 at FloridaL 21–23
  8. W9 vs TexasL 38–45
  9. W10 at ArkansasW 38–35
  10. W11 vs GeorgiaL 21–41
  11. W12 at MissouriL 27–49
  12. W14 vs Ole MissL 19–38

2024

2-10
D-I rank
#94
Rating
55.2
Listed games · 12
WLLLLLLLWLLL
310 pts scored409 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Eastern KentuckyW 56–7
  2. W2 at Arizona StateL 23–30
  3. W3 vs ToledoL 17–41
  4. W4 vs FloridaL 28–45
  5. W5 at TexasL 13–35
  6. W7 at GeorgiaL 31–41
  7. W8 vs Texas A&ML 24–34
  8. W9 vs ArkansasL 25–58
  9. W10 vs MassachusettsW 45–20
  10. W11 at TennesseeL 14–33
  11. W13 vs MissouriL 20–39
  12. W14 at Ole MissL 14–26

2023

5-7
D-I rank
#64
Rating
60.4
Listed games · 12
WWLLLWWLLLWL
262 pts scored319 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs SE LouisianaW 48–7
  2. W2 vs ArizonaW 31–24
  3. W3 vs LSUL 14–41
  4. W4 at South CarolinaL 30–37
  5. W5 vs AlabamaL 17–40
  6. W6 vs Western MichiganW 41–28
  7. W8 at ArkansasW 7–3
  8. W9 at AuburnL 13–27
  9. W10 vs KentuckyL 3–24
  10. W11 at Texas A&ML 10–51
  11. W12 vs Southern MissW 41–20
  12. W13 vs Ole MissL 7–17

2022

8-4
D-I rank
#24
Rating
70.4
Listed games · 12
WWLWWWLLWLWW
392 pts scored290 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs MemphisW 49–23
  2. W2 at ArizonaW 39–17
  3. W3 at LSUL 16–31
  4. W4 vs Bowling GreenW 45–14
  5. W5 vs Texas A&MW 42–24
  6. W6 vs ArkansasW 40–17
  7. W7 at KentuckyL 17–27
  8. W8 at AlabamaL 6–30
  9. W10 vs AuburnW 39–33
  10. W11 vs GeorgiaL 19–45
  11. W12 vs East Tennessee StateW 56–7
  12. W13 at Ole MissW 24–22