Passing
ALA offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ALA offense
- #22
- MSST defense
- #75
EPA comparison
0.42
#22
0.16
#75
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ALA 61.7%38.4% MSST
- Projected margin
- ALA by 4.1
- Projected total
- 62
- 80% outcome range
- ALA 24 to MSST 14
- Win probability
- ALA 61.7%
FinalALA 56 · MSST 23model had -4.1, off by 28.9
Current team profiles
Alabama
Mississippi StateWhen Alabama has the ball
Rushing
ALA offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ALA offense
- #9
- MSST defense
- #73
EPA comparison
0.27
#9
0.05
#73
Rush EPA
Drive success
ALA offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ALA offense
- #15
- MSST defense
- #78
Success rates
50%
#15
41%
#78
Success rate
More metrics
0.33
#7
0.09
#88
EPA / play
1.32
#25
1.16
#40
Explosiveness
16%
#94
17%
#43
Havoc
When Mississippi State has the ball
Passing
MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ALA defense
- #55
- MSST offense
- #19
EPA comparison
0.10
#55
0.43
#19
Pass EPA
Rushing
ALA defense
Higher-ranked profile
- ALA defense
- #8
- MSST offense
- #30
EPA comparison
-0.17
#8
0.20
#30
Rush EPA
Drive success
MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- ALA defense
- #30
- MSST offense
- #29
Success rates
35%
#30
48%
#29
Success rate
More metrics
-0.06
#17
0.28
#24
EPA / play
1.37
#122
1.32
#27
Explosiveness
20%
#22
14%
#63
Havoc
Current key players
AlabamaQBKeelon Russell
1414 yds · 11 TD · 2 INT
92.54/729
RBEJ Crowell
204 yds · 3 TD · 7.8 YPC
90.38/1044
LBLuke Metz
36 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.1
- Coverage
- 84.7
- Pressures
- 7
- Pass-rush snaps
- 25
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
87.223/1796
TEMarshall Pritchett
7 rec · 148 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 73.8
- Run blocking
- 74.2
- Penalties
- 1
82.817/1017
WRNoah Rogers
3 rec · 55 yds · 0 TD
81.844/2069
LBDesmond Umeozulu
6 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 77.3
- Coverage
- 62.2
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 30
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.798/1796
Availability reports · 2
- Josh Ford · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Ford is nursing with a arm injury, and it is unclear if he will be active against Volunteers on Saturday, October 17th.
- Aubrey Walker · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Walker is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Volunteers on Saturday, October 17th.
Mississippi StateQBKamario Taylor
1450 yds · 17 TD · 4 INT
73.0130/729
RBJ.J. Hill
124 yds · 2 TD · 12.4 YPC
90.09/1044
CBJett Jefferson
25 tkl · 8 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.9
- Coverage
- 83.8
- Targets allowed
- 31
- Rec allowed
- 15
- Yards allowed
- 164
- Passer rating allowed
- 96.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
85.124/2969
WRAnthony Evans III
40 rec · 574 yds · 5 TD
82.834/2069
SJardin Gilbert
26 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.2
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 158.3
- Missed tackles
- 2
77.8100/2969
SIsaac Smith
17 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.3
- Coverage
- 76.8
- Targets allowed
- 8
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 24
- Passer rating allowed
- 66.7
- Missed tackles
- 3
75.6171/2969
Availability reports · 4
- A. Williams · WRout · 2026-10-01
Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely to play Saturday against the Alabama.
- Trevion Williams · DLout · 2026-09-26
Williams is sidelined due to Leg injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Bull Mitchell · WRout · 2026-09-20
Mitchell is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
- Jamari Freeman · OGQues. · 2026-10-03
Freeman is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against LSU on Saturday, October 10th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
ALAAlabama
MSSTMississippi State
vs
Offense
92.5
#3 of 138
QB
Quarterback
73.0
#89 of 138
84.4
#12 of 138
RB
Running backs
89.0
#3 of 138
76.3
#29 of 138
WR
Receivers
75.4
#32 of 138
82.8
#17 of 138
TE
Tight ends
64.6
#92 of 138
71.7
#38 of 138
OL
Offensive line
63.3
#113 of 138
Defense
79.7
#17 of 138
DL
Defensive line
73.2
#66 of 138
81.5
#14 of 138
LB
Linebackers
66.7
#126 of 138
72.1
#69 of 138
DB
Secondary
76.3
#22 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Alabama
opponent
Mississippi State
Hhome+31.0
SCSouth Carolina#38+7.0Aaway
Aaway+6.6
LSULSU#11-10.0Aaway
Hhome+18.0
AUBAuburn#42+1.4Hhome
Aaway+13.4
VANVanderbilt#58+2.1Hhome