AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#12Away
Alabama
0-0 · AVR 74.0
33p
#45Home
Mississippi State
0-0 · AVR 56.9
22p
ALA 78%22% MSST
Spread
ALA -11.3
Total
55
Moneyline
ALA-355MSST+355
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ALA advantageevenMSST advantage →
ALA throw
ALA QB #85ALA WR #15
ALA +12
ALA run
ALA +40
MSST throw
MSST protection #89ALA pass rush #67
ALA +15
MSST run
ALA +28

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSST runs
Fluff Bothwell
vs
Yhonzae Pierre
RB · MSST
MLB · ALA
71.0
87.5
ALA +16
when ALA throws
Ryan Coleman-Williams
vs
Kelley Jones
X · ALA
CB1 · MSST
78.5
75.5
ALA +3
when MSST throws
Anthony Evans III
vs
Bray Hubbard
X · MSST
CB1 · ALA
64.0
87.6
ALA +24
over the middle
Sam West
vs
Zabien Brown
TE · MSST
FS · ALA
44.2
83.7
ALA +39
when ALA runs
Daniel Hill
vs
Gav Holman
RB · ALA
MLB · MSST
64.3
62.8
dead even
off the edge· hunting Taylor
Canon Boone
vs
Jeremiah Beaman
LT · MSST
EDGE · ALA
51.3
73.4
ALA +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Alabama
DBBray Hubbard
87.623/1427
LBYhonzae Pierre
87.513/878
DBKeon Sabb
84.845/1427
DBDijon Lee Jr.
83.956/1427
LBJah-Marien Latham
82.836/878
WRRyan Coleman-Williams
78.526/777

also out — Alabama running back (RB), Ezavier Crowell (RB), RB (RB), another Alabama RB (RB), unknown (RB), Alabama Freshman Cornerback (CB), top recruit (CB), 5-star defensive back (DB) +9 more

Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
77.127/308
CBKelley Jones
75.5150/1427
CBQuentin Taylor
75.0154/1427
SIsaac Smith
72.3186/1427
RBFluff Bothwell
71.048/514
WRAnthony Evans III
64.089/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Alabama
opponent
Mississippi State
home+9.8
South Carolina#29
-9.0away
away+3.5
LSU#20
-10.3away
home+12.7
Auburn#31
-1.1home
away+3.3
Vanderbilt#23
-5.5home

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKALA +11.395% interval: -35.2 to 12.680% interval: -28.7 to 6.1-29+6ALA wins 78%MSST wins 22%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ALA 35–21 MSSTMSST 18–60 ALA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMSST 21–56 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 25–53 ALA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 28–49 ALA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSST 32–46 ALA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSST 35–42 ALA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 39–39 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSST 42–35 ALA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 46–32 ALA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSST 14–56 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 18–53 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 21–49 ALA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 25–46 ALA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSST 28–42 ALA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSST 32–39 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSST 35–35 ALA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 39–32 ALA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSST 42–28 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 11–53 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 14–49 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 18–46 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSST 21–42 ALA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSST 25–39 ALA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSST 28–35 ALA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSST 32–32 ALA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 35–28 ALA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 39–25 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 7–49 ALA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 11–46 ALA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSST 14–42 ALA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 18–39 ALA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSST 21–35 ALA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSST 25–32 ALA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSST 28–28 ALA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSST 32–25 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 35–21 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 4–46 ALA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 7–42 ALA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSST 11–39 ALA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSST 14–35 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSST 18–32 ALA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSST 21–28 ALA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSST 25–25 ALA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSST 28–21 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 32–18 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 0–42 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 4–39 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 7–35 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 11–32 ALA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 14–28 ALA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 18–25 ALA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 21–21 ALA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSST 25–18 ALA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSST 28–14 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MSST 0–35 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 4–32 ALA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSST 7–28 ALA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSST 11–25 ALA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 14–21 ALA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSST 18–18 ALA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSST 21–14 ALA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSST 25–11 ALA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalALA +42ALA +28ALA +14PKMSST +14margin →