AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 8:15 PM
#45Away
Mississippi State
0-0 · AVR 56.9
21p
#29Home
South Carolina
0-0 · AVR 63.4
30p
MSST 27%73% SC
Spread
SC -9.0
Total
51
Moneyline
MSST+268SC-268
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MSST advantageevenSC advantage →
MSST throw
MSST protection #89
SC +7
MSST run
SC +38
SC throw
MSST pass rush #115
SC +15
SC run
SC +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSST runs
Fluff Bothwell
vs
Fred Johnson
RB · MSST
MLB · SC
71.0
78.4
SC +7
off the edge· hunting Taylor
Canon Boone
vs
Dylan Stewart
LT · MSST
EDGE · SC
51.3
91.7
SC +40
when SC throws
Nyck Harbor
vs
Kelley Jones
X · SC
CB1 · MSST
61.5
75.5
MSST +14
when MSST throws
Anthony Evans III
vs
Vicari Swain
X · MSST
CB1 · SC
64.0
71.7
SC +8
when SC runs
Christian Clark
vs
Gav Holman
RB · SC
MLB · MSST
53.4
62.8
MSST +9
over the middle
Mike Tyler
vs
Kendel Dolby
TE · SC
FS · MSST
42.0
64.9
MSST +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
77.127/308
CBKelley Jones
75.5150/1427
CBQuentin Taylor
75.0154/1427
SIsaac Smith
72.3186/1427
RBFluff Bothwell
71.048/514
WRAnthony Evans III
64.089/777
South Carolina
LBFred Johnson
78.473/878
LBJustin Okoronkwo
72.1123/878
DBVicari Swain
71.7197/1427
QBLaNorris Sellers
67.648/308
DBPeyton Williams
67.0308/1427
DBJalewis Solomon
62.1423/1427

also out — unknown (WR), J. Gibson (WR), J. Sellers (WR), Dylan Stewart (EDGE), Jacarrius Peak (OL)

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Mississippi State
opponent
South Carolina
home-11.3
Alabama#12
-9.8away
home-10.0
Oklahoma#11
-8.5away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSC +9.095% interval: -14.9 to 32.980% interval: -8.4 to 26.4-8+26MSST wins 27%SC wins 73%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SC 28–21 MSSTSC 25–46 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSC 28–42 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 32–39 MSST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 35–35 MSST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 39–32 MSST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSC 42–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSC 46–25 MSST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 49–21 MSST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 53–18 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 21–42 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 25–39 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSC 28–35 MSST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSC 32–32 MSST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSC 35–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSC 39–25 MSST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSC 42–21 MSST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSC 46–18 MSST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 49–14 MSST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 18–39 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 21–35 MSST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 25–32 MSST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSC 28–28 MSST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSC 32–25 MSST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSC 35–21 MSST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSC 39–18 MSST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSC 42–14 MSST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSC 46–11 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 14–35 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 18–32 MSST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 21–28 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSC 25–25 MSST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSC 28–21 MSST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSC 32–18 MSST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSC 35–14 MSST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSC 39–11 MSST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSC 42–7 MSST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 11–32 MSST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 14–28 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSC 18–25 MSST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 21–21 MSST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 25–18 MSST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSC 28–14 MSST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSC 32–11 MSST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSC 35–7 MSST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 39–4 MSST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 7–28 MSST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSC 11–25 MSST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 14–21 MSST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSC 18–18 MSST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSC 21–14 MSST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 25–11 MSST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSC 28–7 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSC 32–4 MSST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSC 35–0 MSST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 4–25 MSST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesSC 7–21 MSST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 11–18 MSST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSC 14–14 MSST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSC 18–11 MSST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 21–7 MSST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSC 25–4 MSST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSC 28–0 MSST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalMSST +21MSST +7SC +7SC +21SC +35margin →