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SEC

Texas

Longhorns4-13rd in SEC
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX · 100,119
TeamCarried by the defense · underachieving the roster
OffensePassing attack · weakweak point: avoiding disruption, 110th
DefenseSmothering · strong

The season

Best win
W 24-23 vs #2 Ohio State
Wk 2 · Sep 12 · model had 68%
Worst loss
L 24-27 vs (N) #19 Oklahoma
Wk 6 · Oct 10 · lost as a 81% favorite

Schedule

model 4/5 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsTexas State
    W 59–7
    Win chance 95%Model margin +22.6Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsOhio State
    W 24–23
    Win chance 68%Model margin +6.4Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsUTSA
    W 30–6
    Win chance 99%Model margin +33.1Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    atTennessee
    W 20–17
    Win chance 78%Model margin +10.6Game details
  5. Week 6 · Oct 10
    vsOklahomaNeutral
    L 24–27
    Win chance 81%Model margin +11.9Game details
  6. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsFlorida
    Win chance 79%Model margin +11.1Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsOle Miss
    Win chance 72%Model margin +8.0Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsMississippi State
    Win chance 83%Model margin +13.0Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atMissouri
    Win chance 57%Model margin +2.6Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atLSU
    Win chance 51%Model margin +0.4Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsArkansas
    Win chance 95%Model margin +22.3Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atTexas A&M
    Win chance 51%Model margin +0.4Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
37
#94 of 138
Defense efficiency
86
#11 of 138
Efficiency
#960.08
EPA / play
#23-0.05
#600.26
Pass
#200.00
#930.04
Rush
#22-0.09
#6944%
Success
#2535%
Big plays & havoc
#971.18
Explosive
#71.04
#11017%
Havoc
#1021%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB83rd
RB82nd
WR37th
TE103rd
OL10th
DL24th
LB127th
DB89th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Arch ManningJR
865 yds · 7 TD · 3 INT
74.8
113th QB
RB
Hollywood SmothersJR
198 yds · 2 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.1
147th RB
WR
Sterling BerkhalterSR
3 rec · 34 yds · 0 TD
83.7
29th WR
WR
Cam ColemanJR
11 rec · 194 yds · 4 TD
70.5
246th WR
TE
Nick TownsendSO
1 rec · 9 yds · 0 TD
63.2
190th TE
Defense
LB
Rasheem BilesSR
30 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
67.2
487th LB
LB
Rocky CummingsFR
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
66.3
539th LB
DB
Jelani McDonaldSR
26 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
76.3
149th DB
DB
Graceson LittletonSO
14 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
76.0
161st DB
DB
Kobe BlackJR
7 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
68.0
598th DB

Injury report

4 listed
Ques.
Trevor GoosbyOG

Goosby is dealing with a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.

78.510-11
Ques.
Zion WilliamsDL

Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.

75.210-11
Ques.
Kaliq LockettWR

Lockett is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.

57.110-11
Ques.
Daylan McCutcheonWR

McCutcheon is ailing from an illness, and it is unclear if he will play against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.

53.510-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsFlorida
    Playoff chance if win
    66.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    41.3%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsOle Miss
    Playoff chance if win
    68.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    42.3%
  3. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsMississippi State
    Playoff chance if win
    65.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    40.3%
  4. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atMissouri
    Playoff chance if win
    71.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    46.3%
  5. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atLSU
    Playoff chance if win
    73.2%
    Playoff chance if loss
    47.8%
  6. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsArkansas
    Playoff chance if win
    62.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    35.4%
  7. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atTexas A&M
    Playoff chance if win
    72.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    48.6%

Past seasons

Year by year
-5.4 points since 2022
6070809010078.3202284.4202381.6202472.92025
2022 78.32023 84.42024 81.62025 72.9

2025

9-3
D-I rank
#21
Rating
72.9
Listed games · 12
LWWWLWWWWLWW
355 pts scored237 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at Ohio StateL 7–14
  2. W2 vs San José StateW 38–7
  3. W3 vs UTEPW 27–10
  4. W4 vs Sam HoustonW 55–0
  5. W6 at FloridaL 21–29
  6. W7 vs OklahomaW 23–6
  7. W8 at KentuckyW 16–13
  8. W9 at Mississippi StateW 45–38
  9. W10 vs VanderbiltW 34–31
  10. W12 at GeorgiaL 10–35
  11. W13 vs ArkansasW 52–37
  12. W14 vs Texas A&MW 27–17

2024

11-2
D-I rank
#3
Rating
81.6
Listed games · 13
WWWWWWLWWWWWL
437 pts scored162 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Colorado StateW 52–0
  2. W2 at MichiganW 31–12
  3. W3 vs UTSAW 56–7
  4. W4 vs UL MonroeW 51–3
  5. W5 vs Mississippi StateW 35–13
  6. W7 vs OklahomaW 34–3
  7. W8 vs GeorgiaL 15–30
  8. W9 at VanderbiltW 27–24
  9. W11 vs FloridaW 49–17
  10. W12 at ArkansasW 20–10
  11. W13 vs KentuckyW 31–14
  12. W14 at Texas A&MW 17–7
  13. W15 vs GeorgiaL 19–22

2023

12-1
D-I rank
#3
Rating
84.4
Listed games · 13
WWWWWLWWWWWWW
470 pts scored228 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs RiceW 37–10
  2. W2 at AlabamaW 34–24
  3. W3 vs WyomingW 31–10
  4. W4 at BaylorW 38–6
  5. W5 vs KansasW 40–14
  6. W6 vs OklahomaL 30–34
  7. W8 at HoustonW 31–24
  8. W9 vs BYUW 35–6
  9. W10 vs Kansas StateW 33–30
  10. W11 at TCUW 29–26
  11. W12 at Iowa StateW 26–16
  12. W13 vs Texas TechW 57–7
  13. W14 vs Oklahoma StateW 49–21

2022

8-4
D-I rank
#7
Rating
78.3
Listed games · 12
WLWLWWWLWLWW
428 pts scored254 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs UL MonroeW 52–10
  2. W2 vs AlabamaL 19–20
  3. W3 vs UTSAW 41–20
  4. W4 at Texas TechL 34–37
  5. W5 vs West VirginiaW 38–20
  6. W6 vs OklahomaW 49–0
  7. W7 vs Iowa StateW 24–21
  8. W8 at Oklahoma StateL 34–41
  9. W10 at Kansas StateW 34–27
  10. W11 vs TCUL 10–17
  11. W12 at KansasW 55–14
  12. W13 vs BaylorW 38–27