AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 PM
#9Away
Texas
0-0 · AVR 76.2
29p
#17Home
Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 71.5
28p
TEX 54%46% TENN
Spread
TEX -1.7
Total
57
Moneyline
TEX-120TENN+120
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TEX advantageevenTENN advantage →
TEX throw
TEX protection #84
TEX +5
TEX run
TEX line #84TEX backs #3
TENN +15
TENN throw
TENN QB #86TENN WR #10
TEX +11
TENN run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Phillips
Shamurad Umarov
vs
Colin Simmons
LT · TENN
EDGE · TEX
81.0
105.6
TEX +25
when TENN runs
DeSean Bishop
vs
Rasheem Biles
RB · TENN
MLB · TEX
85.8
93.7
TEX +8
off the edge· hunting Manning
Laurence Seymore III
vs
Jordan Norman
LT · TEX
EDGE · TENN
79.9
82.3
dead even
when TENN throws
Mike Matthews
vs
Jelani McDonald
X · TENN
CB1 · TEX
79.8
81.4
dead even
when TEX runs
Hollywood Smothers
vs
Amare Campbell
RB · TEX
MLB · TENN
82.9
77.3
TEX +6
when TEX throws
Emmett Mosley V
vs
Ty Redmond
X · TEX
CB1 · TENN
76.6
78.0
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas
LBRasheem Biles
93.72/878
QBArch Manningout
86.38/308
RBHollywood Smothers
82.914/514
DBJelani McDonald
81.475/1427
LBJustin Cryerprobable
77.585/878
WREmmett Mosley V
76.630/777

also out — Lake Travis player, LT (LT), all-sec starting left tackle (OL), North Texas player, care, Ty'Anthony Smith (LB), After Missing, Texas (OL)

Tennessee
RBDeSean Bishop
85.85/514
WRMike Matthews
79.821/777
DBTy Redmond
78.0114/1427
DBQua Moss
77.8119/1427
LBAmare Campbell
77.387/878
WRBraylon Staley
75.532/777

also out — Jadais Richard (CB), EDGE Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Tennessee Football Starting Defender (S), Tennessee defensive back (DB), unknown (S), Farooq (S), Tennessee (S) +1 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas
opponent
Tennessee
home+18.0
Arkansas#40
+8.8away
away-3.5
Texas A&M#8
-7.7away
away+5.7
LSU#20
+6.5home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEX +1.795% interval: -25.6 to 22.280% interval: -19.1 to 15.7-19+16TEX wins 54%TENN wins 46%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TENN 28–28 TEXTENN 25–53 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 28–49 TEX neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 32–46 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 35–42 TEX neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 39–39 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTENN 42–35 TEX neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTENN 46–32 TEX neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTENN 49–28 TEX neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 53–25 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 21–49 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 25–46 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 28–42 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 32–39 TEX neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 35–35 TEX neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTENN 39–32 TEX neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTENN 42–28 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 46–25 TEX neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 49–21 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 18–46 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 21–42 TEX neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTENN 25–39 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTENN 28–35 TEX neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 32–32 TEX neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTENN 35–28 TEX neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 39–25 TEX neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTENN 42–21 TEX neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTENN 46–18 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 14–42 TEX neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 18–39 TEX neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTENN 21–35 TEX neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTENN 25–32 TEX neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTENN 28–28 TEX neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTENN 32–25 TEX neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTENN 35–21 TEX neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTENN 39–18 TEX neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTENN 42–14 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 11–39 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 14–35 TEX neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTENN 18–32 TEX neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTENN 21–28 TEX neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 25–25 TEX neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTENN 28–21 TEX neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 32–18 TEX neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTENN 35–14 TEX neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 39–11 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 7–35 TEX neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 11–32 TEX neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 14–28 TEX neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTENN 18–25 TEX neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTENN 21–21 TEX neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 25–18 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTENN 28–14 TEX neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTENN 32–11 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 35–7 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 4–32 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 7–28 TEX neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 11–25 TEX neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTENN 14–21 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 18–18 TEX neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 21–14 TEX neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTENN 25–11 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 28–7 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 32–4 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalTEX +28TEX +14PKTENN +14TENN +28margin →