AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#9Away
Texas
0-0 · AVR 76.2
29p
#24Home
Missouri
0-0 · AVR 66.8
23p
TEX 66%34% MIZ
Spread
TEX -6.0
Total
52
Moneyline
TEX-198MIZ+198
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TEX advantageevenMIZ advantage →
TEX throw
TEX protection #84
even
TEX run
TEX line #84TEX backs #3
MIZ +20
MIZ throw
TEX +5
MIZ run
TEX +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Zollers
Dominick Giudice
vs
Colin Simmons
LT · MIZ
EDGE · TEX
91.6
105.6
TEX +14
when MIZ runs
Ahmad Hardy
vs
Rasheem Biles
RB · MIZ
MLB · TEX
86.8
93.7
TEX +7
when TEX runs
Hollywood Smothers
vs
Robert Woodyard Jr.
RB · TEX
MLB · MIZ
82.9
87.0
MIZ +4
off the edge· hunting Manning
Laurence Seymore III
vs
Darris Smith
LT · TEX
EDGE · MIZ
79.9
80.7
dead even
when TEX throws
Emmett Mosley V
vs
Cameron Keys
X · TEX
CB1 · MIZ
76.6
84.0
MIZ +7
when MIZ throws
Cayden Lee
vs
Jelani McDonald
X · MIZ
CB1 · TEX
76.8
81.4
TEX +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas
LBRasheem Biles
93.72/878
QBArch Manningout
86.38/308
RBHollywood Smothers
82.914/514
DBJelani McDonald
81.475/1427
LBJustin Cryerprobable
77.585/878
WREmmett Mosley V
76.630/777

also out — Lake Travis player, LT (LT), all-sec starting left tackle (OL), North Texas player, care, Ty'Anthony Smith (LB), After Missing, Texas (OL)

Missouri
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
87.014/878
RBAhmad Hardyout
86.83/514
CBCameron Keys
84.055/1427
LBNicholas Rodriguez
80.151/878
WRCayden Lee
76.829/777
CBSione Laulea
70.4227/1427

also out — Josh Atkins, C. Green (OG), Key (OL), key Mizzou offensive lineman

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas
opponent
Missouri
home+5.9
Ole Miss#14
-7.6away
home+18.5
Mississippi State#45
+5.0away
home+18.0
Arkansas#40
+4.5away
home+11.2
Florida#25
+2.7home
neutral+3.5
Oklahoma#11
-2.5home
away-3.5
Texas A&M#8
-7.0home

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEX +6.095% interval: -29.9 to 17.980% interval: -23.4 to 11.4-23+11TEX wins 66%MIZ wins 34%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEX 28–21 MIZMIZ 18–53 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 21–49 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIZ 25–46 TEX neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIZ 28–42 TEX neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 32–39 TEX neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 35–35 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIZ 39–32 TEX neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIZ 42–28 TEX neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIZ 46–25 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 14–49 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 18–46 TEX neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIZ 21–42 TEX neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIZ 25–39 TEX neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIZ 28–35 TEX neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIZ 32–32 TEX neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIZ 35–28 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIZ 39–25 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIZ 42–21 TEX neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 11–46 TEX neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 14–42 TEX neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIZ 18–39 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIZ 21–35 TEX neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIZ 25–32 TEX neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIZ 28–28 TEX neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIZ 32–25 TEX neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIZ 35–21 TEX neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 39–18 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIZ 7–42 TEX neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 11–39 TEX neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIZ 14–35 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIZ 18–32 TEX neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIZ 21–28 TEX neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMIZ 25–25 TEX neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIZ 28–21 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIZ 32–18 TEX neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 35–14 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIZ 4–39 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 7–35 TEX neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIZ 11–32 TEX neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIZ 14–28 TEX neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIZ 18–25 TEX neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIZ 21–21 TEX neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIZ 25–18 TEX neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 28–14 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIZ 32–11 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIZ 0–35 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 4–32 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIZ 7–28 TEX neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIZ 11–25 TEX neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIZ 14–21 TEX neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIZ 18–18 TEX neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 21–14 TEX neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIZ 25–11 TEX neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIZ 28–7 TEX neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MIZ 0–28 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIZ 4–25 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIZ 7–21 TEX neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIZ 11–18 TEX neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 14–14 TEX neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIZ 18–11 TEX neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 21–7 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIZ 25–4 TEX neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalTEX +35TEX +21TEX +7MIZ +7MIZ +21margin →