CFB
Model
All rankings
SEC

Missouri

Tigers5-16th in SEC
Memorial Stadium · Columbia, MO · 71,168
TeamWell-rounded
OffenseBig-play passing attack · solidweak point: avoiding disruption, 93rd
DefenseHavoc-driven · solidweak point: big plays allowed, 114th

The season

Best win
W 45-17 vs #22 Florida
Wk 5 · Oct 3 · won as a 22% underdog
Worst loss
L 24-31 @ #35 Mississippi State
Wk 4 · Sep 26 · model had 15%

Schedule

model 5/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 3
    vsArkansas-Pine Bluff
    W 54–14
    Win chance >99%Model margin +54.9Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 11
    atKansas
    W 38–21
    Win chance 53%Model margin +0.9Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsTroy
    W 27–17
    Win chance 95%Model margin +21.6Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    atMississippi State
    L 24–31
    Win chance 15%Model margin -14.1Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsFlorida
    W 45–17
    Win chance 22%Model margin -10.5Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    vsTexas A&M
    W 27–6
    Win chance 55%Model margin +1.6Game details
  7. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atOle Miss
    Win chance 43%Model margin -2.5Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atArkansas
    Win chance 81%Model margin +11.8Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsTexas
    Win chance 43%Model margin -2.6Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atGeorgia
    Win chance 19%Model margin -12.1Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsKentucky
    Win chance 81%Model margin +11.9Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsOklahoma
    Win chance 57%Model margin +2.5Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
63
#40 of 138
Defense efficiency
86
#11 of 138
Efficiency
#460.20
EPA / play
#33-0.02
#190.43
Pass
#380.06
#720.10
Rush
#29-0.06
#7943%
Success
#2035%
Big plays & havoc
#301.30
Explosive
#1141.34
#9316%
Havoc
#422%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB27th
RB121st
WR19th
TE63rd
OL9th
DL11th
LB81st
DB49th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Austin SimmonsSR
1270 yds · 13 TD · 0 INT
88.4
28th QB
RB
Preston HatfieldFR
34 yds · 1 TD · 8.5 YPC
70.9
289th RB
WR
Cayden LeeSR
33 rec · 496 yds · 4 TD
91.3
5th WR
WR
Donovan OlugbodeSO
27 rec · 416 yds · 6 TD
71.5
213th WR
TE
Gavin HoffmanJR
— rec · — yds · — TD
70.1
91st TE
Defense
LB
Robert Woodyard Jr.SR
32 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
77.5
126th LB
LB
Bobby Washington Jr.SR
3 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
73.9
219th LB
CB
Jahlil FlorenceSR
6 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
75.7
168th DB
S
CJ Bass IIISO
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
74.5
210th DB
S
Santana BannerSR
42 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
74.2
218th DB

Injury report

4 out
out
Cayden GreenOG

Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

73.009-20
out
Gavin HoffmanTE

Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

70.109-20
out
Ahmad HardyRB

Hardy is dealing with a leg injury, and and a timetable for return has yet to be established.

91.9202509-11
out
Jabari BradyWR

Brady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

—09-20
Ques.
Darris SmithDL

Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against the Ole Miss on Saturday, October 17th.

67.410-10

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atOle Miss
    Playoff chance if win
    18.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    6.1%
  2. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atArkansas
    Playoff chance if win
    13.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    4.5%
  3. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsTexas
    Playoff chance if win
    19.4%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.6%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atGeorgia
    Playoff chance if win
    24.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    7.9%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsKentucky
    Playoff chance if win
    13.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    4.1%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsOklahoma
    Playoff chance if win
    16.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.5%

Past seasons

Year by year
+10.6 points since 2022
506070809062.8202274.0202372.3202473.42025
2022 62.82023 74.02024 72.32025 73.4

2025

8-4
D-I rank
#19
Rating
73.4
Listed games · 12
WWWWWLWLLWLW
386 pts scored233 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Central ArkansasW 61–6
  2. W2 vs KansasW 42–31
  3. W3 vs LouisianaW 52–10
  4. W4 vs South CarolinaW 29–20
  5. W5 vs MassachusettsW 42–6
  6. W7 vs AlabamaL 24–27
  7. W8 at AuburnW 23–17
  8. W9 at VanderbiltL 10–17
  9. W11 vs Texas A&ML 17–38
  10. W12 vs Mississippi StateW 49–27
  11. W13 at OklahomaL 6–17
  12. W14 at ArkansasW 31–17

2024

9-3
D-I rank
#20
Rating
72.3
Listed games · 12
WWWWLWWLWLWW
349 pts scored241 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Murray StateW 51–0
  2. W2 vs BuffaloW 38–0
  3. W3 vs Boston CollegeW 27–21
  4. W4 vs VanderbiltW 30–27
  5. W6 at Texas A&ML 10–41
  6. W7 at MassachusettsW 45–3
  7. W8 vs AuburnW 21–17
  8. W9 at AlabamaL 0–34
  9. W11 vs OklahomaW 30–23
  10. W12 at South CarolinaL 30–34
  11. W13 at Mississippi StateW 39–20
  12. W14 vs ArkansasW 28–21

2023

10-2
D-I rank
#18
Rating
74.0
Listed games · 12
WWWWWLWWLWWW
409 pts scored268 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs South DakotaW 35–10
  2. W2 vs Middle TennesseeW 23–19
  3. W3 vs Kansas StateW 30–27
  4. W4 vs MemphisW 34–27
  5. W5 at VanderbiltW 38–21
  6. W6 vs LSUL 39–49
  7. W7 at KentuckyW 38–21
  8. W8 vs South CarolinaW 34–12
  9. W10 at GeorgiaL 21–30
  10. W11 vs TennesseeW 36–7
  11. W12 vs FloridaW 33–31
  12. W13 at ArkansasW 48–14

2022

6-6
D-I rank
#61
Rating
62.8
Listed games · 12
WLWLLLWWLLWW
306 pts scored300 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Louisiana TechW 52–24
  2. W2 at Kansas StateL 12–40
  3. W3 vs Abilene ChristianW 34–17
  4. W4 at AuburnL 14–17
  5. W5 vs GeorgiaL 22–26
  6. W6 at FloridaL 17–24
  7. W8 vs VanderbiltW 17–14
  8. W9 at South CarolinaW 23–10
  9. W10 vs KentuckyL 17–21
  10. W11 at TennesseeL 24–66
  11. W12 vs New Mexico StateW 45–14
  12. W13 vs ArkansasW 29–27