AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
Battle Line Trophy
#24Away
Missouri
0-0 · AVR 66.8
33p
#40Home
Arkansas
0-0 · AVR 58.2
28p
MIZ 62%38% ARK
Spread
MIZ -4.5
Total
60
Moneyline
MIZ-162ARK+162
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MIZ advantageevenARK advantage →
MIZ throw
MIZ +14
MIZ run
ARK linebackers #107
MIZ +23
ARK throw
MIZ +21
ARK run
MIZ +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Zollers
Dominick Giudice
vs
Steven Soles Jr.
LT · MIZ
EDGE · ARK
91.6
85.2
MIZ +6
when MIZ runs
Ahmad Hardy
vs
Ben Bogle
RB · MIZ
MLB · ARK
86.8
77.0
MIZ +10
when ARK runs
Sutton Smith
vs
Robert Woodyard Jr.
RB · ARK
MLB · MIZ
68.8
87.0
MIZ +18
over the middle
Jaden Platt
vs
JaDon Blair
TE · ARK
FS · MIZ
78.6
68.8
ARK +10
when MIZ throws
Cayden Lee
vs
Joker Johnson
X · MIZ
CB1 · ARK
76.8
70.0
MIZ +7
when ARK throws
Jamari Hawkins
vs
Cameron Keys
X · ARK
CB1 · MIZ
56.7
84.0
MIZ +27

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Missouri
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
87.014/878
RBAhmad Hardyout
86.83/514
CBCameron Keys
84.055/1427
LBNicholas Rodriguez
80.151/878
WRCayden Lee
76.829/777
CBSione Laulea
70.4227/1427

also out — Josh Atkins, C. Green (OG), Key (OL), key Mizzou offensive lineman

Arkansas
TEJaden Platt
78.63/287
LBBen Bogle
77.088/878
DBJoker Johnson
70.0239/1427
RBSutton Smith
68.861/514
DBLa'khi Roland
64.9358/1427
DBChristian Harrison
60.9459/1427

also out — M. Lassiter (TE)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Missouri
opponent
Arkansas
home-7.0
Texas A&M#8
-19.0away
home-6.0
Texas#9
-18.0away
away-16.9
Georgia#3
-19.0home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIZ +4.595% interval: -28.4 to 19.480% interval: -21.9 to 12.9-22+13MIZ wins 62%ARK wins 38%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIZ 35–28 ARKARK 25–60 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesARK 28–56 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARK 32–53 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARK 35–49 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 39–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARK 42–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARK 46–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 49–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 53–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 21–56 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 25–53 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 28–49 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 32–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARK 35–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARK 39–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 42–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARK 46–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARK 49–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 18–53 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 21–49 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 25–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 28–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 32–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARK 35–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARK 39–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARK 42–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 46–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 14–49 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 18–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 21–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 25–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARK 28–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARK 32–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARK 35–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 39–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARK 42–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 11–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 14–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 18–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 21–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARK 25–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARK 28–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARK 32–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 35–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARK 39–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 7–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 11–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 14–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 18–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 21–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARK 25–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARK 28–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARK 32–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARK 35–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 4–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 7–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 11–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARK 14–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARK 18–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 21–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARK 25–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 28–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARK 32–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalMIZ +35MIZ +21MIZ +7ARK +7ARK +21margin →