AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#67Away
Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 49.8
19p
#24Home
Missouri
0-0 · AVR 66.8
36p
UK 12%88% MIZ
Spread
MIZ -17.0
Total
55
Moneyline
UK+718MIZ-718
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UK advantageevenMIZ advantage →
UK throw
UK protection #32
MIZ +38
UK run
UK backs #105
MIZ +28
MIZ throw
UK pass rush #49
MIZ +26
MIZ run
MIZ +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Zollers
Dominick Giudice
vs
Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace
LT · MIZ
EDGE · UK
91.6
84.7
MIZ +7
off the edge· hunting Minchey
Coleton Price
vs
Darris Smith
LT · UK
EDGE · MIZ
85.1
80.7
UK +4
when MIZ runs
Ahmad Hardy
vs
Lorenzo Cowan
RB · MIZ
MLB · UK
86.8
66.0
MIZ +21
when MIZ throws
Cayden Lee
vs
Jesse Anderson III
X · MIZ
CB1 · UK
76.8
70.2
MIZ +7
when UK runs
CJ Baxter
vs
Robert Woodyard Jr.
RB · UK
MLB · MIZ
52.0
87.0
MIZ +35
when UK throws
Nic Anderson
vs
Cameron Keys
X · UK
CB1 · MIZ
45.6
84.0
MIZ +38

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kentucky
DBJesse Anderson III
70.2234/1427
DBTy Bryant
68.1277/1427
LBLorenzo Cowan
66.0199/878
LBSam Greene
65.4207/878
QBKenny Minchey
53.8109/308
RBCJ Baxterprobable
52.0227/514

also out — T. Mizell (RB), Jovantae Barnes (RB)

Missouri
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
87.014/878
RBAhmad Hardyout
86.83/514
CBCameron Keys
84.055/1427
LBNicholas Rodriguez
80.151/878
WRCayden Lee
76.829/777
CBSione Laulea
70.4227/1427

also out — Josh Atkins, C. Green (OG), Key (OL), key Mizzou offensive lineman

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kentucky
opponent
Missouri
away-26.5
Texas A&M#8
-7.0home
away-22.0
Oklahoma#11
-2.5home
home-11.9
Florida#25
+2.7home

Projected margin

80% between -0 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIZ +17.095% interval: -6.9 to 40.980% interval: -0.3 to 34.40+34UK wins 12%MIZ wins 88%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIZ 35–21 UKMIZ 32–46 UK neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMIZ 35–42 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 39–39 UK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIZ 42–35 UK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIZ 46–32 UK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 49–28 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIZ 53–25 UK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIZ 56–21 UK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIZ 60–18 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 28–42 UK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 32–39 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 35–35 UK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIZ 39–32 UK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 42–28 UK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIZ 46–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIZ 49–21 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIZ 53–18 UK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 56–14 UK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIZ 25–39 UK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 28–35 UK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIZ 32–32 UK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIZ 35–28 UK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIZ 39–25 UK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIZ 42–21 UK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIZ 46–18 UK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 49–14 UK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIZ 53–11 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 21–35 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 25–32 UK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 28–28 UK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIZ 32–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIZ 35–21 UK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIZ 39–18 UK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIZ 42–14 UK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIZ 46–11 UK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIZ 49–7 UK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIZ 18–32 UK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 21–28 UK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 25–25 UK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIZ 28–21 UK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIZ 32–18 UK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIZ 35–14 UK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIZ 39–11 UK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIZ 42–7 UK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIZ 46–4 UK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIZ 14–28 UK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 18–25 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 21–21 UK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIZ 25–18 UK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIZ 28–14 UK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIZ 32–11 UK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIZ 35–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIZ 39–4 UK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIZ 42–0 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 11–25 UK neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMIZ 14–21 UK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIZ 18–18 UK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIZ 21–14 UK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIZ 25–11 UK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIZ 28–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIZ 32–4 UK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIZ 35–0 UK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalUK +14PKMIZ +14MIZ +28MIZ +42margin →