AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#25Away
Florida
0-0 · AVR 66.3
25p
#24Home
Missouri
0-0 · AVR 66.8
28p
FLA 42%58% MIZ
Spread
MIZ -2.7
Total
53
Moneyline
FLA+136MIZ-136
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FLA advantageevenMIZ advantage →
FLA throw
FLA QB #101FLA WR #33
MIZ +27
FLA run
FLA +9
MIZ throw
MIZ +6
MIZ run
FLA +11

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Zollers
Dominick Giudice
vs
Emmanuel Oyebadejo
LT · MIZ
EDGE · FLA
91.6
90.7
dead even
when MIZ runs
Ahmad Hardy
vs
Myles Graham
RB · MIZ
MLB · FLA
86.8
86.1
dead even
when FLA runs
Jadan Baugh
vs
Robert Woodyard Jr.
RB · FLA
MLB · MIZ
80.9
87.0
MIZ +6
when FLA throws
Vernell Brown III
vs
Cameron Keys
X · FLA
CB1 · MIZ
71.4
84.0
MIZ +13
when MIZ throws
Cayden Lee
vs
Bryce Thornton
X · MIZ
CB1 · FLA
76.8
72.0
MIZ +5
over the middle
Lacota Dippre
vs
JaDon Blair
TE · FLA
FS · MIZ
73.7
68.8
FLA +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida
LBMyles Graham
86.118/878
LBJayden Woods
82.837/878
RBJadan Baugh
80.921/514
TELacota Dippre
73.75/287
SBryce Thornton
72.0189/1427
WRVernell Brown III
71.445/777

also out — Graham Mertz

Missouri
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
87.014/878
RBAhmad Hardyout
86.83/514
CBCameron Keys
84.055/1427
LBNicholas Rodriguez
80.151/878
WRCayden Lee
76.829/777
CBSione Laulea
70.4227/1427

also out — Josh Atkins, C. Green (OG), Key (OL), key Mizzou offensive lineman

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida
opponent
Missouri
away-11.2
Texas#9
-6.0home
away+11.9
Kentucky#67
+17.0home
home-2.8
Ole Miss#14
-7.6away
neutral-14.6
Georgia#3
-16.9away
home-2.6
Oklahoma#11
-2.5home

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIZ +2.795% interval: -21.2 to 26.680% interval: -14.7 to 20.1-15+20FLA wins 42%MIZ wins 58%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIZ 28–28 FLAMIZ 25–53 FLA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMIZ 28–49 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 32–46 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIZ 35–42 FLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIZ 39–39 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 42–35 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 46–32 FLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIZ 49–28 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 53–25 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 21–49 FLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 25–46 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 28–42 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 32–39 FLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 35–35 FLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIZ 39–32 FLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIZ 42–28 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 46–25 FLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIZ 49–21 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIZ 18–46 FLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 21–42 FLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIZ 25–39 FLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIZ 28–35 FLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIZ 32–32 FLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIZ 35–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIZ 39–25 FLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIZ 42–21 FLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIZ 46–18 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 14–42 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 18–39 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 21–35 FLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIZ 25–32 FLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIZ 28–28 FLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIZ 32–25 FLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIZ 35–21 FLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIZ 39–18 FLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIZ 42–14 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 11–39 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 14–35 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 18–32 FLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIZ 21–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIZ 25–25 FLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIZ 28–21 FLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIZ 32–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIZ 35–14 FLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIZ 39–11 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 7–35 FLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 11–32 FLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIZ 14–28 FLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIZ 18–25 FLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 21–21 FLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIZ 25–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIZ 28–14 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIZ 32–11 FLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIZ 35–7 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 4–32 FLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 7–28 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 11–25 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 14–21 FLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIZ 18–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 21–14 FLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 25–11 FLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIZ 28–7 FLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIZ 32–4 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes77706356494235totalFLA +28FLA +14PKMIZ +14MIZ +28margin →