Passing
MIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TROY offense
- #101
- MIZ defense
- #38
EPA comparison
0.11
#101
0.06
#38
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
TROY 5.9%94.1% MIZ
- Projected margin
- MIZ by 21.6
- Projected total
- 50
- 80% outcome range
- MIZ 4 to MIZ 41
- Win probability
- MIZ 94.1%
FinalTROY 17 · MIZ 27model had +21.6, off by 11.6
Current team profiles
TroyMissouriWhen Troy has the ball
Rushing
MIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TROY offense
- #45
- MIZ defense
- #29
EPA comparison
0.16
#45
-0.06
#29
Rush EPA
Drive success
MIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TROY offense
- #79
- MIZ defense
- #20
Success rates
43%
#79
35%
#20
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#78
-0.02
#33
EPA / play
1.26
#47
1.34
#114
Explosiveness
17%
#114
22%
#4
Havoc
When Missouri has the ball
Passing
MIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TROY defense
- #71
- MIZ offense
- #19
EPA comparison
0.15
#71
0.43
#19
Pass EPA
Rushing
TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TROY defense
- #56
- MIZ offense
- #72
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.10
#72
Rush EPA
Drive success
TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TROY defense
- #64
- MIZ offense
- #79
Success rates
40%
#64
43%
#79
Success rate
More metrics
0.07
#73
0.20
#46
EPA / play
1.35
#116
1.30
#30
Explosiveness
17%
#59
16%
#93
Havoc
Current key players
TroyQBGoose Crowder
822 yds · 7 TD · 4 INT
60.7263/729
SJustin Powe
26 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.7
- Coverage
- 78.7
- Targets allowed
- 3
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 37
- Passer rating allowed
- 118.1
- Missed tackles
- 3
80.952/2969
RBGavin Griffin
259 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
77.6124/1044
DBDonnie Smith
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.0
- Coverage
- 67.2
- Targets allowed
- 3
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 31
- Passer rating allowed
- 100.7
- Missed tackles
- 5
73.3262/2969
SJamarion Keyes
17 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.5
- Coverage
- 68.9
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 94.3
- Missed tackles
- 1
72.9285/2969
LBTJ Thompson
20 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.2
- Coverage
- 67.7
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 23
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
72.3282/1796
Availability reports · 2
- Jackson Worley · TEout · 2026-10-03
Worley has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Fabian Rogosch · TEQues. · 2026-10-06
Rogosch is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Louisiana on Saturday, October 17th.
MissouriQBAustin Simmons
1270 yds · 13 TD · 0 INT
88.428/729
WRCayden Lee
33 rec · 496 yds · 4 TD
91.35/2069
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
32 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 92.5
- Coverage
- 55.4
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 12
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
77.5126/1796
CBJahlil Florence
6 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 44.7
- Coverage
- 81.1
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 8
- Passer rating allowed
- 9.8
- Missed tackles
- 3
75.7168/2969
SCJ Bass III
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 57.0
- Coverage
- 78.9
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.5210/2969
SSantana Banner
42 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 65.2
- Coverage
- 79.1
- Targets allowed
- 16
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 155
- Passer rating allowed
- 128.9
- Missed tackles
- 5
74.2218/2969
Availability reports · 5
- Cayden Green · OGout · 2026-09-20
Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
- Gavin Hoffman · TEout · 2026-09-20
Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Ahmad Hardy · RBout · 2026-09-11
Hardy is dealing with a leg injury, and and a timetable for return has yet to be established.
- Jabari Brady · WRout · 2026-09-20
Brady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Darris Smith · DLQues. · 2026-10-10
Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against the Ole Miss on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
TROYTroy
MIZMissouri
vs
Offense
60.7
#130 of 138
QB
Quarterback
88.4
#27 of 138
76.6
#59 of 138
RB
Running backs
69.8
#121 of 138
67.0
#121 of 138
WR
Receivers
77.6
#19 of 138
69.3
#68 of 138
TE
Tight ends
70.1
#63 of 138
61.6
#123 of 138
OL
Offensive line
77.3
#9 of 138
Defense
64.1
#138 of 138
DL
Defensive line
81.3
#11 of 138
69.1
#112 of 138
LB
Linebackers
72.7
#81 of 138
72.0
#71 of 138
DB
Secondary
73.6
#49 of 138