AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 4:45 PM
#95Away
Troy
0-0 · AVR 41.7
17p
#24Home
Missouri
0-0 · AVR 66.8
39p
TROY 7%93% MIZ
Spread
MIZ -22.2
Total
56
Moneyline
TROY+1420MIZ-1420
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TROY advantageevenMIZ advantage →
TROY throw
MIZ +59
TROY run
MIZ +61
MIZ throw
TROY coverage #45TROY pass rush #124
MIZ +25
MIZ run
MIZ +44

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MIZ throws
Cayden Lee
vs
Jonathan Pennix
X · MIZ
CB1 · TROY
76.8
83.7
TROY +7
when MIZ runs
Ahmad Hardy
vs
TJ Thompson
RB · MIZ
MLB · TROY
86.8
68.5
MIZ +18
off the edge· hunting Zollers
Dominick Giudice
vs
Makel Green
LT · MIZ
EDGE · TROY
91.6
58.5
MIZ +33
when TROY runs
Jordan Lovett
vs
Robert Woodyard Jr.
RB · TROY
MLB · MIZ
50.3
87.0
MIZ +37
when TROY throws
TJ Lott
vs
Cameron Keys
X · TROY
CB1 · MIZ
51.9
84.0
MIZ +32
over the middle
Brett Norfleet
vs
Joe Lott
TE · MIZ
FS · TROY
57.9
62.8
TROY +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Troy
CBJonathan Pennix
83.758/1427
DBDonnie Smith
78.9102/1427
LBTJ Thompson
68.5169/878
SMarcus Goree Jr.
67.5292/1427
LBLuke Hodge
61.8257/878
WRTJ Lott
51.9264/777
Missouri
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
87.014/878
RBAhmad Hardyout
86.83/514
CBCameron Keys
84.055/1427
LBNicholas Rodriguez
80.151/878
WRCayden Lee
76.829/777
CBSione Laulea
70.4227/1427

also out — Josh Atkins, C. Green (OG), Key (OL), key Mizzou offensive lineman

Projected margin

80% between 5 and 40
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIZ +22.295% interval: -1.7 to 46.180% interval: 4.8 to 39.6+5+40TROY wins 7%MIZ wins 93%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIZ 39–18 TROYMIZ 35–42 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 39–39 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 42–35 TROY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 46–32 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 49–28 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIZ 53–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIZ 56–21 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIZ 60–18 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 63–14 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 32–39 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 35–35 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 39–32 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIZ 42–28 TROY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 46–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIZ 49–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIZ 53–18 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 56–14 TROY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIZ 60–11 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 28–35 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 32–32 TROY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIZ 35–28 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 39–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIZ 42–21 TROY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIZ 46–18 TROY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIZ 49–14 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIZ 53–11 TROY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 56–7 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIZ 25–32 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 28–28 TROY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIZ 32–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIZ 35–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIZ 39–18 TROY neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMIZ 42–14 TROY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIZ 46–11 TROY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIZ 49–7 TROY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIZ 53–4 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIZ 21–28 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 25–25 TROY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIZ 28–21 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 32–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIZ 35–14 TROY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIZ 39–11 TROY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIZ 42–7 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIZ 46–4 TROY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 49–0 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIZ 18–25 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 21–21 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 25–18 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIZ 28–14 TROY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 32–11 TROY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIZ 35–7 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIZ 39–4 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 42–0 TROY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MIZ 14–21 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 18–18 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 21–14 TROY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 25–11 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 28–7 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIZ 32–4 TROY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 35–0 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalTROY +7MIZ +7MIZ +21MIZ +35MIZ +49margin →