AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#8Away
Texas A&M
0-0 · AVR 76.5
32p
#24Home
Missouri
0-0 · AVR 66.8
25p
TA&M 68%32% MIZ
Spread
TA&M -7.0
Total
58
Moneyline
TA&M-213MIZ+213
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TA&M advantageevenMIZ advantage →
TA&M throw
TA&M WR #1TA&M protection #120
MIZ +4
TA&M run
TA&M line #120TA&M backs #40
MIZ +46
MIZ throw
TA&M +15
MIZ run
TA&M +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Zollers
Dominick Giudice
vs
Ryan Henderson
LT · MIZ
EDGE · TA&M
91.6
88.3
MIZ +3
when TA&M throws
Mario Craver
vs
Cameron Keys
X · TA&M
CB1 · MIZ
85.5
84.0
dead even
when MIZ runs
Ahmad Hardy
vs
Daymion Sanford
RB · MIZ
MLB · TA&M
86.8
82.7
MIZ +4
when TA&M runs
Rueben Owens II
vs
Robert Woodyard Jr.
RB · TA&M
MLB · MIZ
74.1
87.0
MIZ +13
when MIZ throws
Cayden Lee
vs
Marcus Ratcliffe
X · MIZ
CB1 · TA&M
76.8
80.6
TA&M +4
over the middle
Brett Norfleet
vs
Adam Graham
TE · MIZ
FS · TA&M
57.9
70.8
TA&M +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas A&M
WRMario Craver
85.513/777
LBDaymion Sanford
82.739/878
SMarcus Ratcliffe
80.688/1427
QBMarcel Reed
80.221/308
LBRay Coney
78.869/878
CBRickey Gibson III
78.4108/1427

also out — Target After Missing, Former Texas A&M OL (OL), star safety (S), Chace Sims (DL), DT Sims, McGuire (OL), Myles (WR), Player 1 +3 more

Missouri
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
87.014/878
RBAhmad Hardyout
86.83/514
CBCameron Keys
84.055/1427
LBNicholas Rodriguez
80.151/878
WRCayden Lee
76.829/777
CBSione Laulea
70.4227/1427

also out — Josh Atkins, C. Green (OG), Key (OL), key Mizzou offensive lineman

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas A&M
opponent
Missouri
home+19.0
Arkansas#40
+4.5away
home+26.5
Kentucky#67
+17.0home
home+3.5
Texas#9
-6.0home
away+2.0
Oklahoma#11
-2.5home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTA&M +7.095% interval: -30.9 to 16.980% interval: -24.3 to 10.4-24+10TA&M wins 68%MIZ wins 32%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TA&M 32–25 MIZMIZ 21–56 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 25–53 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIZ 28–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIZ 32–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 35–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIZ 39–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 42–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIZ 46–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIZ 49–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 18–53 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 21–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIZ 25–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIZ 28–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIZ 32–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIZ 35–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIZ 39–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIZ 42–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIZ 46–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 14–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 18–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIZ 21–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 25–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIZ 28–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIZ 32–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIZ 35–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 39–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIZ 42–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 11–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 14–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIZ 18–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 21–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIZ 25–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMIZ 28–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIZ 32–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 35–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIZ 39–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 7–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 11–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIZ 14–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIZ 18–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIZ 21–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIZ 25–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIZ 28–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIZ 32–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIZ 35–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 4–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 7–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 11–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIZ 14–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 18–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIZ 21–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 25–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIZ 28–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 32–11 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 0–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 4–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 7–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 11–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIZ 14–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIZ 18–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIZ 21–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 25–11 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 28–7 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalTA&M +35TA&M +21TA&M +7MIZ +7MIZ +21margin →