AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#24Away
Missouri
0-0 · AVR 66.8
25p
#14Home
Ole Miss
0-0 · AVR 73.1
33p
MIZ 30%70% MISS
Spread
MISS -7.6
Total
58
Moneyline
MIZ+231MISS-231
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MIZ advantageevenMISS advantage →
MIZ throw
MISS +7
MIZ run
even
MISS throw
MISS protection #58
even
MISS run
MISS backs #11
MIZ +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Zollers
Dominick Giudice
vs
Jonathan Maldonado
LT · MIZ
EDGE · MISS
91.6
92.7
dead even
when MISS runs
Kewan Lacy
vs
Robert Woodyard Jr.
RB · MISS
MLB · MIZ
90.1
87.0
MISS +3
when MIZ runs
Ahmad Hardy
vs
Suntarine Perkins
RB · MIZ
MLB · MISS
86.8
78.6
MIZ +8
when MIZ throws
Cayden Lee
vs
Antonio Kite
X · MIZ
CB1 · MISS
76.8
78.2
dead even
when MISS throws
Deuce Alexander
vs
Cameron Keys
X · MISS
CB1 · MIZ
68.4
84.0
MIZ +16
off the edge· hunting Chambliss
Tommy Kinsler IV
vs
Darris Smith
LT · MISS
EDGE · MIZ
65.2
80.7
MIZ +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Missouri
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
87.014/878
RBAhmad Hardyout
86.83/514
CBCameron Keys
84.055/1427
LBNicholas Rodriguez
80.151/878
WRCayden Lee
76.829/777
CBSione Laulea
70.4227/1427

also out — Josh Atkins, C. Green (OG), Key (OL), key Mizzou offensive lineman

Ole Miss
QBTrinidad Chambliss
98.71/308
RBKewan Lacy
90.11/514
LBSuntarine Perkins
78.670/878
CBAntonio Kite
78.2110/1427
CBCedrick Beavers
72.4185/1427
WRDeuce Alexander
68.463/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Missouri
opponent
Ole Miss
away+5.0
Mississippi State#45
+15.1home
away-16.9
Georgia#3
-6.8home
home-2.5
Oklahoma#11
-2.3away
home+2.7
Florida#25
+2.8away
home-6.0
Texas#9
-5.9away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMISS +7.695% interval: -16.3 to 31.580% interval: -9.8 to 25-10+25MIZ wins 30%MISS wins 70%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MISS 32–25 MIZMISS 28–49 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMISS 32–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMISS 35–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMISS 39–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 42–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMISS 46–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 49–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMISS 53–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 56–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 25–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 28–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMISS 32–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 35–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMISS 39–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 42–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMISS 46–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 49–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 53–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 21–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 25–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 28–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 32–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 35–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMISS 39–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMISS 42–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMISS 46–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 49–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 18–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 21–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMISS 25–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 28–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMISS 32–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMISS 35–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMISS 39–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMISS 42–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 46–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMISS 14–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 18–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMISS 21–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 25–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMISS 28–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMISS 32–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMISS 35–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMISS 39–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 42–7 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 11–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMISS 14–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMISS 18–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMISS 21–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMISS 25–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMISS 28–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMISS 32–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMISS 35–7 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMISS 39–4 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMISS 7–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMISS 11–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMISS 14–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMISS 18–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMISS 21–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMISS 25–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMISS 28–7 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMISS 32–4 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMISS 35–0 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalMIZ +21MIZ +7MISS +7MISS +21MISS +35margin →