CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
MIZ 21.9%78.1% UGA
Projected margin
UGA by 12.1
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
MIZ 7 to UGA 31
Win probability
UGA 78.1%

Current team profiles

Missouri
Georgia

When Missouri has the ball

Passing

MIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
MIZ offense
#19
UGA defense
#49
EPA comparison
0.43
#19
0.08
#49
Pass EPA

Rushing

UGA defense
Higher-ranked profile
MIZ offense
#72
UGA defense
#5
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
-0.22
#5
Rush EPA

Drive success

UGA defense
Higher-ranked profile
MIZ offense
#79
UGA defense
#27
Success rates
43%
#79
35%
#27
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#46
-0.05
#25
EPA / play
1.30
#30
1.23
#76
Explosiveness
16%
#93
19%
#24
Havoc

When Georgia has the ball

Passing

UGA offense
Higher-ranked profile
MIZ defense
#38
UGA offense
#3
EPA comparison
0.06
#38
0.62
#3
Pass EPA

Rushing

UGA offense
Higher-ranked profile
MIZ defense
#29
UGA offense
#12
EPA comparison
-0.06
#29
0.26
#12
Rush EPA

Drive success

UGA offense
Higher-ranked profile
MIZ defense
#20
UGA offense
#6
Success rates
35%
#20
52%
#6
Success rate
More metrics
-0.02
#33
0.40
#3
EPA / play
1.34
#114
1.28
#38
Explosiveness
22%
#4
12%
#24
Havoc

Current key players

Missouri
QBAustin Simmons
1270 yds · 13 TD · 0 INT
88.428/729
WRCayden Lee
33 rec · 496 yds · 4 TD
91.35/2069
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
32 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
92.5
Coverage
55.4
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
12
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
1
77.5126/1796
CBJahlil Florence
6 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
44.7
Coverage
81.1
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
8
Passer rating allowed
9.8
Missed tackles
3
75.7168/2969
SCJ Bass III
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.0
Coverage
78.9
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
74.5210/2969
SSantana Banner
42 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
65.2
Coverage
79.1
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
155
Passer rating allowed
128.9
Missed tackles
5
74.2218/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Cayden Green · OGout · 2026-09-20

    Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Gavin Hoffman · TEout · 2026-09-20

    Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Ahmad Hardy · RBout · 2026-09-11

    Hardy is dealing with a leg injury, and and a timetable for return has yet to be established.

  • Jabari Brady · WRout · 2026-09-20

    Brady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Darris Smith · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against the Ole Miss on Saturday, October 17th.

Georgia
QBGunner Stockton
1049 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
92.53/729
RBDwight Phillips Jr.
160 yds · 1 TD · 8.0 YPC
90.66/1044
TEElyiss Williams
6 rec · 71 yds · 2 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
74.3
Run blocking
78.3
Penalties
0
88.94/1017
LBChris Cole
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.6
Coverage
67.1
Pressures
12
Pass-rush snaps
59
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
88.517/1796
DBKJ Bolden
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.3
Coverage
82.5
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
94
Passer rating allowed
83.1
Missed tackles
2
84.229/2969
WRLandon Roldan
4 rec · 80 yds · 1 TD
83.927/2069
Availability reports · 3
  • Dante Dowdell · RBout · 2026-09-05

    Dowdell has been sidelined due an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Isiah Canion · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Conan is dealing with a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face Tigers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Thomas Blackshear · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Blackshear is dealing with a upper-body injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against the Tigers on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MIZ
UGA
vs
Offense
88.4
#27 of 138
QB
92.5
#4 of 138
69.8
#121 of 138
RB
90.5
#2 of 138
77.6
#19 of 138
WR
82.8
#4 of 138
70.1
#63 of 138
TE
88.9
#4 of 138
77.3
#9 of 138
OL
75.5
#15 of 138
Defense
81.3
#11 of 138
DL
78.6
#20 of 138
72.7
#81 of 138
LB
81.2
#15 of 138
73.6
#49 of 138
DB
78.9
#5 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Missouri
opponent
Georgia
H+2.5
OU#19
+28.0H
A+11.8
ARK#71
+28.0A
H+28.0
FLA#22
+12.6N
A-2.5
MISS#14
+6.9A