AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#24Away
Missouri
0-0 · AVR 66.8
20p
#3Home
Georgia
0-0 · AVR 80.0
36p
MIZ 12%88% UGA
Spread
UGA -16.9
Total
56
Moneyline
MIZ+724UGA-724
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MIZ advantageevenUGA advantage →
MIZ throw
UGA pass rush #88
MIZ +9
MIZ run
UGA front #88UGA linebackers #4
MIZ +9
UGA throw
even
UGA run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MIZ runs
Ahmad Hardy
vs
Chris Cole
RB · MIZ
MLB · UGA
86.8
85.5
dead even
when UGA runs
Nate Frazier
vs
Robert Woodyard Jr.
RB · UGA
MLB · MIZ
81.1
87.0
MIZ +6
when MIZ throws
Cayden Lee
vs
KJ Bolden
X · MIZ
CB1 · UGA
76.8
81.2
UGA +4
off the edge· hunting Zollers
Dominick Giudice
vs
Elijah Griffin
LT · MIZ
EDGE · UGA
91.6
64.1
MIZ +28
when UGA throws
Isiah Canion
vs
Cameron Keys
X · UGA
CB1 · MIZ
63.4
84.0
MIZ +21
off the edge· hunting Stockton
Drew Bobo
vs
Darris Smith
LT · UGA
EDGE · MIZ
63.4
80.7
MIZ +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Missouri
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
87.014/878
RBAhmad Hardyout
86.83/514
CBCameron Keys
84.055/1427
LBNicholas Rodriguez
80.151/878
WRCayden Lee
76.829/777
CBSione Laulea
70.4227/1427

also out — Josh Atkins, C. Green (OG), Key (OL), key Mizzou offensive lineman

Georgia
LBChris Cole
85.521/878
LBRaylen Wilson
84.324/878
QBGunner Stockton
81.718/308
DBKJ Bolden
81.280/1427
RBNate Frazier
81.119/514
SKhalil Barnes
74.0164/1427

also out — unknown, Dante Dowdell (RB), Kirby Smart (RB), AJC.com (DB), Former Georgia Bulldogs OL (OL), Drew Bobo (C), Carter Loflin (OL)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Missouri
opponent
Georgia
away+4.5
Arkansas#40
+19.0away
home-2.5
Oklahoma#11
+12.0home
away-7.6
Ole Miss#14
+6.8away
home+2.7
Florida#25
+14.6neutral

Projected margin

80% between -0 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUGA +16.995% interval: -7 to 40.880% interval: -0.4 to 34.30+34MIZ wins 12%UGA wins 88%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UGA 35–21 MIZUGA 32–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUGA 35–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 39–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUGA 42–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 46–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 49–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUGA 53–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUGA 56–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUGA 60–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 28–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 32–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 35–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUGA 39–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 42–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 46–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 49–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUGA 53–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUGA 56–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 25–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 28–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUGA 32–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 35–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUGA 39–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUGA 42–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 46–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 49–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUGA 53–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 21–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 25–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 28–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 32–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 35–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUGA 39–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUGA 42–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUGA 46–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUGA 49–7 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUGA 18–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 21–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUGA 25–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 28–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUGA 32–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUGA 35–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 39–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 42–7 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUGA 46–4 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 14–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 18–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 21–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUGA 25–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 28–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 32–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 35–7 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUGA 39–4 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUGA 42–0 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 11–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUGA 14–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 18–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUGA 21–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUGA 25–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 28–7 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUGA 32–4 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 35–0 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMIZ +14PKUGA +14UGA +28UGA +42margin →