AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12
#24Away
Missouri
0-0 · AVR 66.8
32p
#50Home
Kansas
0-0 · AVR 55.4
25p
MIZ 66%34% KU
Spread
MIZ -6.3
Total
57
Moneyline
MIZ-196KU+196
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MIZ advantageevenKU advantage →
MIZ throw
KU pass rush #42
MIZ +23
MIZ run
MIZ +4
KU throw
KU QB #95KU protection #1
MIZ +19
KU run
KU backs #63
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Marshall
James Livingston
vs
Darris Smith
LT · KU
EDGE · MIZ
96.9
80.7
KU +16
off the edge· hunting Zollers
Dominick Giudice
vs
Blake Herold
LT · MIZ
EDGE · KU
91.6
82.8
MIZ +9
when MIZ runs
Ahmad Hardy
vs
Jibreel Al-Amin
RB · MIZ
MLB · KU
86.8
78.3
MIZ +9
when KU throws
Cam Pickett
vs
Cameron Keys
X · KU
CB1 · MIZ
68.5
84.0
MIZ +15
when KU runs
Yasin Willis
vs
Robert Woodyard Jr.
RB · KU
MLB · MIZ
59.9
87.0
MIZ +27
when MIZ throws
Cayden Lee
vs
Jalen Todd
X · MIZ
CB1 · KU
76.8
67.8
MIZ +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Missouri
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
87.014/878
RBAhmad Hardyout
86.83/514
CBCameron Keys
84.055/1427
LBNicholas Rodriguez
80.151/878
WRCayden Lee
76.829/777
CBSione Laulea
70.4227/1427

also out — Josh Atkins, C. Green (OG), Key (OL), key Mizzou offensive lineman

Kansas
LBJibreel Al-Amin
78.376/878
LBTrey Lathan
75.4103/878
WRCam Pickettquestionable
68.561/777
CBJalen Todd
67.8284/1427
SCorey Gordon
66.4323/1427
TELeyton Cure
60.053/287

also out — J. Thurman (RB), Tre'von McAlpine (DL)

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIZ +6.395% interval: -30.2 to 17.680% interval: -23.7 to 11.1-24+11MIZ wins 66%KU wins 34%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIZ 32–25 KUKU 21–56 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKU 25–53 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKU 28–49 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKU 32–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 35–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKU 39–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 42–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKU 46–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKU 49–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 18–53 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 21–49 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKU 25–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKU 28–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKU 32–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKU 35–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKU 39–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 42–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 46–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 14–49 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 18–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 21–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 25–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKU 28–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKU 32–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 35–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 39–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 42–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 11–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 14–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 18–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 21–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 25–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesKU 28–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKU 32–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKU 35–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 39–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 7–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 11–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 14–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 18–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKU 21–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKU 25–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 28–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 32–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 35–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 4–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 7–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKU 11–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKU 14–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKU 18–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKU 21–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKU 25–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 28–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 32–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 0–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKU 4–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKU 7–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 11–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 14–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 18–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 21–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKU 25–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKU 28–7 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalMIZ +35MIZ +21MIZ +7KU +7KU +21margin →