CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Fri Sep 11 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MIZ 50.9%49.1% KU
Projected margin
MIZ by 0.9
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
MIZ 21 to KU 17
Win probability
MIZ 50.9%
FinalMIZ 38 · KU 21model had -0.9, off by 16.1

Current team profiles

Missouri
Kansas

When Missouri has the ball

Passing

MIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
MIZ offense
#19
KU defense
#71
EPA comparison
0.43
#19
0.15
#71
Pass EPA

Rushing

KU defense
Higher-ranked profile
MIZ offense
#72
KU defense
#27
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
-0.07
#27
Rush EPA

Drive success

KU defense
Higher-ranked profile
MIZ offense
#79
KU defense
#20
Success rates
43%
#79
35%
#20
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#46
-0.03
#30
EPA / play
1.30
#30
1.27
#92
Explosiveness
16%
#93
20%
#19
Havoc

When Kansas has the ball

Passing

MIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
MIZ defense
#38
KU offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.06
#38
0.27
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

KU offense
Higher-ranked profile
MIZ defense
#29
KU offense
#19
EPA comparison
-0.06
#29
0.24
#19
Rush EPA

Drive success

MIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
MIZ defense
#20
KU offense
#28
Success rates
35%
#20
48%
#28
Success rate
More metrics
-0.02
#33
0.25
#28
EPA / play
1.34
#114
1.34
#20
Explosiveness
22%
#4
14%
#60
Havoc

Current key players

Missouri
QBAustin Simmons
1270 yds · 13 TD · 0 INT
88.428/729
WRCayden Lee
33 rec · 496 yds · 4 TD
91.35/2069
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
32 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
92.5
Coverage
55.4
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
12
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
1
77.5126/1796
CBJahlil Florence
6 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
44.7
Coverage
81.1
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
8
Passer rating allowed
9.8
Missed tackles
3
75.7168/2969
SCJ Bass III
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.0
Coverage
78.9
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
74.5210/2969
SSantana Banner
42 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
65.2
Coverage
79.1
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
155
Passer rating allowed
128.9
Missed tackles
5
74.2218/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Cayden Green · OGout · 2026-09-20

    Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Gavin Hoffman · TEout · 2026-09-20

    Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Ahmad Hardy · RBout · 2026-09-11

    Hardy is dealing with a leg injury, and and a timetable for return has yet to be established.

  • Jabari Brady · WRout · 2026-09-20

    Brady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Darris Smith · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against the Ole Miss on Saturday, October 17th.

Kansas
QBChase Jenkins
65 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
93.31/729
LBJaron Willis
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.8
Coverage
71.6
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.330/1796
WRNik McMillan
14 rec · 256 yds · 2 TD
85.324/2069
LBTrey Lathan
22 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.1
Coverage
83.7
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
9
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
83.554/1796
TEJack Utz
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
84.2
Penalties
0
77.934/1017
RBJalen Dupree
103 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 YPC
77.8120/1044
Availability reports · 7
  • Cole Ballard · QBout · 2026-10-02

    Ballard is dealing with a shoulder injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Yasin Willis · RBout · 2026-09-28

    Willis has been out of the lineup with an foot injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Justin Thurman · RBout · 2026-08-11

    Thurman has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kory Amachree · RBout · 2026-10-02

    Amachree is expected to miss the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Jaylen Mason · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mason is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jailen Butler · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Butler exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Wildcats on Saturday, October

  • Carter Moses · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Moses is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MIZ
KU
vs
Offense
88.4
#27 of 138
QB
93.3
#1 of 138
69.8
#121 of 138
RB
76.8
#57 of 138
77.6
#19 of 138
WR
78.9
#15 of 138
70.1
#63 of 138
TE
77.9
#30 of 138
77.3
#9 of 138
OL
77.5
#8 of 138
Defense
81.3
#11 of 138
DL
89.4
#1 of 138
72.7
#81 of 138
LB
83.2
#10 of 138
73.6
#49 of 138
DB
72.4
#66 of 138
Common opponents