CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
OU 43.1%56.9% MIZ
Projected margin
MIZ by 2.5
Projected total
51
80% outcome range
OU 16 to MIZ 21
Win probability
MIZ 56.9%

Current team profiles

Oklahoma
Missouri

When Oklahoma has the ball

Passing

MIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU offense
#55
MIZ defense
#38
EPA comparison
0.27
#55
0.06
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

MIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU offense
#138
MIZ defense
#29
EPA comparison
-0.24
#138
-0.06
#29
Rush EPA

Drive success

MIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU offense
#119
MIZ defense
#20
Success rates
38%
#119
35%
#20
Success rate
More metrics
-0.04
#129
-0.02
#33
EPA / play
1.06
#132
1.34
#114
Explosiveness
17%
#114
22%
#4
Havoc

When Missouri has the ball

Passing

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU defense
#12
MIZ offense
#19
EPA comparison
-0.07
#12
0.43
#19
Pass EPA

Rushing

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU defense
#26
MIZ offense
#72
EPA comparison
-0.08
#26
0.10
#72
Rush EPA

Drive success

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU defense
#2
MIZ offense
#79
Success rates
32%
#2
43%
#79
Success rate
More metrics
-0.16
#3
0.20
#46
EPA / play
1.27
#89
1.30
#30
Explosiveness
21%
#14
16%
#93
Havoc

Current key players

Oklahoma
QBWhitt Newbauer
6 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
65.3214/729
DBPeyton Bowen
17 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.1
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
84.925/2969
LBDane Bathurst
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.9
Coverage
63.9
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.560/1796
TETrynae Washington
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.4
Run blocking
81.4
Penalties
0
79.229/1017
WRIsaiah Sategna III
20 rec · 267 yds · 2 TD
75.7115/2069
DBEli Bowen
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.3
Coverage
64.2
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
124
Passer rating allowed
58.4
Missed tackles
1
70.5412/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Trell Harris · WRout · 2026-09-15

    Harris sustained a back injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jer'Michael Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Carter is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Van Dorselaer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Dorselaer is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

Missouri
QBAustin Simmons
1270 yds · 13 TD · 0 INT
88.428/729
WRCayden Lee
33 rec · 496 yds · 4 TD
91.35/2069
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
32 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
92.5
Coverage
55.4
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
12
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
1
77.5126/1796
CBJahlil Florence
6 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
44.7
Coverage
81.1
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
8
Passer rating allowed
9.8
Missed tackles
3
75.7168/2969
SCJ Bass III
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.0
Coverage
78.9
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
74.5210/2969
SSantana Banner
42 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
65.2
Coverage
79.1
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
155
Passer rating allowed
128.9
Missed tackles
5
74.2218/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Cayden Green · OGout · 2026-09-20

    Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Gavin Hoffman · TEout · 2026-09-20

    Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Ahmad Hardy · RBout · 2026-09-11

    Hardy is dealing with a leg injury, and and a timetable for return has yet to be established.

  • Jabari Brady · WRout · 2026-09-20

    Brady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Darris Smith · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against the Ole Miss on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

OU
MIZ
vs
Offense
65.3
#119 of 138
QB
88.4
#27 of 138
67.2
#134 of 138
RB
69.8
#121 of 138
68.7
#99 of 138
WR
77.6
#19 of 138
79.2
#27 of 138
TE
70.1
#63 of 138
73.3
#25 of 138
OL
77.3
#9 of 138
Defense
77.6
#30 of 138
DL
81.3
#11 of 138
73.7
#74 of 138
LB
72.7
#81 of 138
71.9
#72 of 138
DB
73.6
#49 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Oklahoma
opponent
Missouri
A+0.6
FLA#22
+28.0H
H+0.6
TA&M#28
+21.0H
A-28.0
UGA#6
-12.1A
A+2.6
MSST#35
-7.0A
N+3.0
TEX#7
-2.6H
H+2.9
MISS#14
-2.5A
H+12.0
UK#40
+11.9H