AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#11Away
Oklahoma
0-0 · AVR 74.3
27p
#24Home
Missouri
0-0 · AVR 66.8
25p
OU 57%43% MIZ
Spread
OU -2.5
Total
52
Moneyline
OU-133MIZ+133
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OU advantageevenMIZ advantage →
OU throw
even
OU run
MIZ +20
MIZ throw
OU +22
MIZ run
OU +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Zollers
Dominick Giudice
vs
Taylor Wein
LT · MIZ
EDGE · OU
91.6
96.5
OU +5
when MIZ runs
Ahmad Hardy
vs
Kip Lewis
RB · MIZ
MLB · OU
86.8
92.3
OU +5
when MIZ throws
Cayden Lee
vs
Peyton Bowen
X · MIZ
CB1 · OU
76.8
86.1
OU +9
when OU throws
Parker Livingstone
vs
Cameron Keys
X · OU
CB1 · MIZ
71.1
84.0
MIZ +13
off the edge· hunting Mateer
Caleb Nitta
vs
Darris Smith
LT · OU
EDGE · MIZ
74.3
80.7
MIZ +6
when OU runs
Lloyd Avant
vs
Robert Woodyard Jr.
RB · OU
MLB · MIZ
62.3
87.0
MIZ +25

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oklahoma
LBKip Lewis
92.36/878
LBOwen Heinecke
91.78/878
DBPeyton Bowen
86.134/1427
DBEli Bowenprobable
83.063/1427
DBCourtland Guillory
82.468/1427
QBJohn Mateerprobable
71.835/308

also out — Michael Fasusi, Jaren Kanak (TE), Oklahoma OL (OL), Maikkula (C), Jake Maikkula (OL)

Missouri
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
87.014/878
RBAhmad Hardyout
86.83/514
CBCameron Keys
84.055/1427
LBNicholas Rodriguez
80.151/878
WRCayden Lee
76.829/777
CBSione Laulea
70.4227/1427

also out — Josh Atkins, C. Green (OG), Key (OL), key Mizzou offensive lineman

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oklahoma
opponent
Missouri
home+2.3
Ole Miss#14
-7.6away
home+22.0
Kentucky#67
+17.0home
away+10.0
Mississippi State#45
+5.0away
home-2.0
Texas A&M#8
-7.0home
away-12.0
Georgia#3
-16.9away
neutral-3.5
Texas#9
-6.0home
away+2.6
Florida#25
+2.7home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOU +2.595% interval: -27.1 to 22.180% interval: -20.4 to 15.4-20+15OU wins 57%MIZ wins 43%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIZ 25–25 OUMIZ 21–49 OU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 25–46 OU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMIZ 28–42 OU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIZ 32–39 OU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIZ 35–35 OU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 39–32 OU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIZ 42–28 OU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 46–25 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 49–21 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 18–46 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 21–42 OU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIZ 25–39 OU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIZ 28–35 OU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIZ 32–32 OU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIZ 35–28 OU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 39–25 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIZ 42–21 OU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIZ 46–18 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 14–42 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 18–39 OU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIZ 21–35 OU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIZ 25–32 OU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIZ 28–28 OU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIZ 32–25 OU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIZ 35–21 OU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIZ 39–18 OU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 42–14 OU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 11–39 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 14–35 OU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIZ 18–32 OU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIZ 21–28 OU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIZ 25–25 OU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIZ 28–21 OU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIZ 32–18 OU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIZ 35–14 OU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 39–11 OU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 7–35 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 11–32 OU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIZ 14–28 OU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIZ 18–25 OU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMIZ 21–21 OU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMIZ 25–18 OU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIZ 28–14 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIZ 32–11 OU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIZ 35–7 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 4–32 OU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIZ 7–28 OU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIZ 11–25 OU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 14–21 OU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIZ 18–18 OU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIZ 21–14 OU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIZ 25–11 OU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIZ 28–7 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIZ 32–4 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIZ 0–28 OU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIZ 4–25 OU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIZ 7–21 OU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIZ 11–18 OU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 14–14 OU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMIZ 18–11 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIZ 21–7 OU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIZ 25–4 OU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIZ 28–0 OU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalOU +28OU +14PKMIZ +14MIZ +28margin →