Passing
MIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MIZ offense
- #19
- MSST defense
- #75
EPA comparison
0.43
#19
0.16
#75
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 7:45 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MIZ 20.2%79.8% MSST
- Projected margin
- MSST by 14.1
- Projected total
- 59
- 80% outcome range
- MIZ 6 to MSST 38
- Win probability
- MSST 79.8%
FinalMIZ 24 · MSST 31model had +14.1, off by 7.1
Current team profiles
Missouri
Mississippi StateWhen Missouri has the ball
Rushing
MIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MIZ offense
- #72
- MSST defense
- #73
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
0.05
#73
Rush EPA
Drive success
MSST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MIZ offense
- #79
- MSST defense
- #78
Success rates
43%
#79
41%
#78
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#46
0.09
#88
EPA / play
1.30
#30
1.16
#40
Explosiveness
16%
#93
17%
#43
Havoc
When Mississippi State has the ball
Passing
MSST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MIZ defense
- #38
- MSST offense
- #19
EPA comparison
0.06
#38
0.43
#19
Pass EPA
Rushing
MIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MIZ defense
- #29
- MSST offense
- #30
EPA comparison
-0.06
#29
0.20
#30
Rush EPA
Drive success
MIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MIZ defense
- #20
- MSST offense
- #29
Success rates
35%
#20
48%
#29
Success rate
More metrics
-0.02
#33
0.28
#24
EPA / play
1.34
#114
1.32
#27
Explosiveness
22%
#4
14%
#63
Havoc
Current key players
MissouriQBAustin Simmons
1270 yds · 13 TD · 0 INT
88.428/729
WRCayden Lee
33 rec · 496 yds · 4 TD
91.35/2069
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
32 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 92.5
- Coverage
- 55.4
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 12
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
77.5126/1796
CBJahlil Florence
6 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 44.7
- Coverage
- 81.1
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 8
- Passer rating allowed
- 9.8
- Missed tackles
- 3
75.7168/2969
SCJ Bass III
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 57.0
- Coverage
- 78.9
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.5210/2969
SSantana Banner
42 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 65.2
- Coverage
- 79.1
- Targets allowed
- 16
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 155
- Passer rating allowed
- 128.9
- Missed tackles
- 5
74.2218/2969
Availability reports · 5
- Cayden Green · OGout · 2026-09-20
Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
- Gavin Hoffman · TEout · 2026-09-20
Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Ahmad Hardy · RBout · 2026-09-11
Hardy is dealing with a leg injury, and and a timetable for return has yet to be established.
- Jabari Brady · WRout · 2026-09-20
Brady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Darris Smith · DLQues. · 2026-10-10
Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against the Ole Miss on Saturday, October 17th.
Mississippi StateQBKamario Taylor
1450 yds · 17 TD · 4 INT
73.0130/729
RBJ.J. Hill
124 yds · 2 TD · 12.4 YPC
90.09/1044
CBJett Jefferson
25 tkl · 8 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.9
- Coverage
- 83.8
- Targets allowed
- 31
- Rec allowed
- 15
- Yards allowed
- 164
- Passer rating allowed
- 96.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
85.124/2969
WRAnthony Evans III
40 rec · 574 yds · 5 TD
82.834/2069
SJardin Gilbert
26 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.2
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 158.3
- Missed tackles
- 2
77.8100/2969
SIsaac Smith
17 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.3
- Coverage
- 76.8
- Targets allowed
- 8
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 24
- Passer rating allowed
- 66.7
- Missed tackles
- 3
75.6171/2969
Availability reports · 4
- A. Williams · WRout · 2026-10-01
Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely to play Saturday against the Alabama.
- Trevion Williams · DLout · 2026-09-26
Williams is sidelined due to Leg injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Bull Mitchell · WRout · 2026-09-20
Mitchell is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
- Jamari Freeman · OGQues. · 2026-10-03
Freeman is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against LSU on Saturday, October 10th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
MIZMissouri
MSSTMississippi State
vs
Offense
88.4
#27 of 138
QB
Quarterback
73.0
#89 of 138
69.8
#121 of 138
RB
Running backs
89.0
#3 of 138
77.6
#19 of 138
WR
Receivers
75.4
#32 of 138
70.1
#63 of 138
TE
Tight ends
64.6
#92 of 138
77.3
#9 of 138
OL
Offensive line
63.3
#113 of 138
Defense
81.3
#11 of 138
DL
Defensive line
73.2
#66 of 138
72.7
#81 of 138
LB
Linebackers
66.7
#126 of 138
73.6
#49 of 138
DB
Secondary
76.3
#22 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Missouri
opponent
Mississippi State
Hhome-2.6
TEXTexas#7-13.0Aaway
Aaway-2.5
MISSOle Miss#14-7.6Aaway
Hhome+2.5
OUOklahoma#19-2.6Hhome