AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#24Away
Missouri
0-0 · AVR 66.8
30p
#45Home
Mississippi State
0-0 · AVR 56.9
25p
MIZ 63%37% MSST
Spread
MIZ -5.0
Total
56
Moneyline
MIZ-169MSST+169
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MIZ advantageevenMSST advantage →
MIZ throw
MSST pass rush #115
MIZ +24
MIZ run
MIZ +50
MSST throw
MSST protection #89
MIZ +15
MSST run
MIZ +39

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSST runs
Fluff Bothwell
vs
Robert Woodyard Jr.
RB · MSST
MLB · MIZ
71.0
87.0
MIZ +16
when MIZ throws
Cayden Lee
vs
Kelley Jones
X · MIZ
CB1 · MSST
76.8
75.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Zollers
Dominick Giudice
vs
Gus Cordova
LT · MIZ
EDGE · MSST
91.6
59.1
MIZ +32
when MIZ runs
Ahmad Hardy
vs
Gav Holman
RB · MIZ
MLB · MSST
86.8
62.8
MIZ +24
when MSST throws
Anthony Evans III
vs
Cameron Keys
X · MSST
CB1 · MIZ
64.0
84.0
MIZ +20
off the edge· hunting Taylor
Canon Boone
vs
Darris Smith
LT · MSST
EDGE · MIZ
51.3
80.7
MIZ +29

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Missouri
LBRobert Woodyard Jr.
87.014/878
RBAhmad Hardyout
86.83/514
CBCameron Keys
84.055/1427
LBNicholas Rodriguez
80.151/878
WRCayden Lee
76.829/777
CBSione Laulea
70.4227/1427

also out — Josh Atkins, C. Green (OG), Key (OL), key Mizzou offensive lineman

Mississippi State
QBKamario Taylor
77.127/308
CBKelley Jones
75.5150/1427
CBQuentin Taylor
75.0154/1427
SIsaac Smith
72.3186/1427
RBFluff Bothwell
71.048/514
WRAnthony Evans III
64.089/777

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Missouri
opponent
Mississippi State
home-6.0
Texas#9
-18.5away
away-7.6
Ole Miss#14
-15.1away
home-2.5
Oklahoma#11
-10.0home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIZ +5.095% interval: -28.9 to 18.980% interval: -22.4 to 12.4-22+12MIZ wins 63%MSST wins 37%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIZ 32–25 MSSTMSST 21–56 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 25–53 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 28–49 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSST 32–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 35–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSST 39–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 42–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 46–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSST 49–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 18–53 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 21–49 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 25–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 28–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 32–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSST 35–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSST 39–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 42–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSST 46–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 14–49 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 18–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSST 21–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 25–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSST 28–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSST 32–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSST 35–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 39–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 42–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 11–46 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 14–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 18–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 21–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 25–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSST 28–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSST 32–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSST 35–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 39–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 7–42 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSST 11–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSST 14–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 18–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSST 21–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSST 25–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSST 28–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 32–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSST 35–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSST 4–39 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 7–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSST 11–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSST 14–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSST 18–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSST 21–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSST 25–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSST 28–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSST 32–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 0–35 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSST 4–32 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSST 7–28 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSST 11–25 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSST 14–21 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSST 18–18 MIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMSST 21–14 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSST 25–11 MIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSST 28–7 MIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalMIZ +35MIZ +21MIZ +7MSST +7MSST +21margin →