AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:30 AM
Lone Star Showdown (all-sports trophy; no traditional football traveling trophy)
#9Away
Texas
0-0 · AVR 76.2
25p
#8Home
Texas A&M
0-0 · AVR 76.5
28p
TEX 40%60% TA&M
Spread
TA&M -3.5
Total
53
Moneyline
TEX+148TA&M-148
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TEX advantageevenTA&M advantage →
TEX throw
TEX protection #84
TA&M +8
TEX run
TEX line #84TEX backs #3
TA&M +26
TA&M throw
TA&M WR #1TA&M protection #120
TEX +5
TA&M run
TA&M line #120TA&M backs #40
TEX +55

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Manning
Laurence Seymore III
vs
Ryan Henderson
LT · TEX
EDGE · TA&M
79.9
88.3
TA&M +8
when TA&M runs
Rueben Owens II
vs
Rasheem Biles
RB · TA&M
MLB · TEX
74.1
93.7
TEX +20
when TA&M throws
Mario Craver
vs
Jelani McDonald
X · TA&M
CB1 · TEX
85.5
81.4
TA&M +4
when TEX runs
Hollywood Smothers
vs
Daymion Sanford
RB · TEX
MLB · TA&M
82.9
82.7
dead even
when TEX throws
Emmett Mosley V
vs
Marcus Ratcliffe
X · TEX
CB1 · TA&M
76.6
80.6
TA&M +4
over the middle
Emaree Winston
vs
Adam Graham
TE · TEX
FS · TA&M
53.9
70.8
TA&M +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas
LBRasheem Biles
93.72/878
QBArch Manningout
86.38/308
RBHollywood Smothers
82.914/514
DBJelani McDonald
81.475/1427
LBJustin Cryerprobable
77.585/878
WREmmett Mosley V
76.630/777

also out — Lake Travis player, LT (LT), all-sec starting left tackle (OL), North Texas player, care, Ty'Anthony Smith (LB), After Missing, Texas (OL)

Texas A&M
WRMario Craver
85.513/777
LBDaymion Sanford
82.739/878
SMarcus Ratcliffe
80.688/1427
QBMarcel Reed
80.221/308
LBRay Coney
78.869/878
CBRickey Gibson III
78.4108/1427

also out — Target After Missing, Former Texas A&M OL (OL), star safety (S), Chace Sims (DL), DT Sims, McGuire (OL), Myles (WR), Player 1 +3 more

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas
opponent
Texas A&M
away+1.7
Tennessee#17
+7.7home
neutral+3.5
Oklahoma#11
+2.0away
away+6.0
Missouri#24
+7.0away
away+5.7
LSU#20
+6.7away
home+18.0
Arkansas#40
+19.0home

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTA&M +3.595% interval: -21.1 to 28.180% interval: -14.4 to 21.4-14+21TEX wins 40%TA&M wins 60%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TA&M 28–28 TEXTA&M 28–49 TEX neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 32–46 TEX neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTA&M 35–42 TEX neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTA&M 39–39 TEX neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 42–35 TEX neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 46–32 TEX neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTA&M 49–28 TEX neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTA&M 53–25 TEX neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 56–21 TEX neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTA&M 25–46 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 28–42 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 32–39 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 35–35 TEX neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTA&M 39–32 TEX neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTA&M 42–28 TEX neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 46–25 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 49–21 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 53–18 TEX neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTA&M 21–42 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 25–39 TEX neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTA&M 28–35 TEX neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTA&M 32–32 TEX neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTA&M 35–28 TEX neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTA&M 39–25 TEX neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTA&M 42–21 TEX neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTA&M 46–18 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 49–14 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTA&M 18–39 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 21–35 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTA&M 25–32 TEX neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTA&M 28–28 TEX neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTA&M 32–25 TEX neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTA&M 35–21 TEX neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTA&M 39–18 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTA&M 42–14 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 46–11 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTA&M 14–35 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 18–32 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTA&M 21–28 TEX neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTA&M 25–25 TEX neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTA&M 28–21 TEX neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTA&M 32–18 TEX neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTA&M 35–14 TEX neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTA&M 39–11 TEX neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 42–7 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTA&M 11–32 TEX neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTA&M 14–28 TEX neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTA&M 18–25 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTA&M 21–21 TEX neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTA&M 25–18 TEX neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTA&M 28–14 TEX neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTA&M 32–11 TEX neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTA&M 35–7 TEX neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTA&M 39–4 TEX neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTA&M 7–28 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 11–25 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 14–21 TEX neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 18–18 TEX neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTA&M 21–14 TEX neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTA&M 25–11 TEX neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 28–7 TEX neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 32–4 TEX neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 35–0 TEX neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalTEX +21TEX +7TA&M +7TA&M +21TA&M +35margin →