AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:30 PM
#1Away
Ohio State
0-0 · AVR 85.7
28p
#9Home
Texas
0-0 · AVR 76.2
21p
OSU 70%31% TEX
Spread
OSU -7.3
Total
48
Moneyline
OSU-228TEX+228
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OSU advantageevenTEX advantage →
OSU throw
OSU +14
OSU run
even
TEX throw
TEX protection #84
TEX +12
TEX run
TEX line #84TEX backs #3
OSU +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Sayin
Austin Siereveld
vs
Colin Simmons
LT · OSU
EDGE · TEX
81.7
105.6
TEX +24
when OSU runs
Bo Jackson
vs
Rasheem Biles
RB · OSU
MLB · TEX
84.6
93.7
TEX +9
when OSU throws
Jeremiah Smith
vs
Jelani McDonald
X · OSU
CB1 · TEX
96.0
81.4
OSU +15
off the edge· hunting Manning
Laurence Seymore III
vs
Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
LT · TEX
EDGE · OSU
79.9
95.4
OSU +15
when TEX runs
Hollywood Smothers
vs
Christian Alliegro
RB · TEX
MLB · OSU
82.9
79.4
TEX +4
when TEX throws
Emmett Mosley V
vs
Jermaine Mathews Jr.
X · TEX
CB1 · OSU
76.6
69.4
TEX +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ohio State
WRJeremiah Smith
96.01/777
QBJulian Sayin
86.67/308
RBBo Jackson
84.68/514
LBChristian Alliegro
79.461/878
CBJermaine Mathews Jr.
69.4253/1427
LBPayton Pierce
67.8180/878

also out — Legend Bey (RB), Ohio State OL

Texas
LBRasheem Biles
93.72/878
QBArch Manningout
86.38/308
RBHollywood Smothers
82.914/514
DBJelani McDonald
81.475/1427
LBJustin Cryerprobable
77.585/878
WREmmett Mosley V
76.630/777

also out — Lake Travis player, LT (LT), all-sec starting left tackle (OL), North Texas player, care, Ty'Anthony Smith (LB), After Missing, Texas (OL)

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOSU +7.395% interval: -31.2 to 16.680% interval: -24.7 to 10.1-25+10OSU wins 70%TEX wins 31%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OSU 28–21 TEXTEX 18–53 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 21–49 OSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 25–46 OSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEX 28–42 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEX 32–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 35–35 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEX 39–32 OSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEX 42–28 OSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 46–25 OSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 14–49 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 18–46 OSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 21–42 OSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 25–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEX 28–35 OSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEX 32–32 OSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEX 35–28 OSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 39–25 OSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEX 42–21 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 11–46 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 14–42 OSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEX 18–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 21–35 OSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEX 25–32 OSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEX 28–28 OSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEX 32–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 35–21 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 39–18 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 7–42 OSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 11–39 OSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEX 14–35 OSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEX 18–32 OSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEX 21–28 OSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTEX 25–25 OSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEX 28–21 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 32–18 OSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEX 35–14 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 4–39 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 7–35 OSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEX 11–32 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEX 14–28 OSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEX 18–25 OSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEX 21–21 OSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEX 25–18 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 28–14 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 32–11 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 0–35 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 4–32 OSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 7–28 OSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 11–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 14–21 OSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEX 18–18 OSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEX 21–14 OSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 25–11 OSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEX 28–7 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TEX 0–28 OSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 4–25 OSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEX 7–21 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 11–18 OSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEX 14–14 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 18–11 OSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEX 21–7 OSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 25–4 OSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalOSU +35OSU +21OSU +7TEX +7TEX +21margin →