AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 3:30 PM
#59Away
Texas State
0-0 · AVR 51.4
14p
#9Home
Texas
0-0 · AVR 76.2
47p
TXST 1%99% TEX
Spread
TEX -32.4
Total
61
Moneyline
TXST—TEX—
Against the market
TEX +1.9line TEX -30.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TXST advantageevenTEX advantage →
TXST throw
TXST +11
TXST run
TXST line #18TXST backs #97
TEX +28
TEX throw
TEX protection #84
TEX +39
TEX run
TEX line #84TEX backs #3
TEX +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Jaylen Early
vs
Colin Simmons
LT · TXST
EDGE · TEX
91.1
105.6
TEX +14
off the edge· hunting Manning
Laurence Seymore III
vs
DonTerry Russell
LT · TEX
EDGE · TXST
79.9
83.6
TXST +4
when TXST throws
Beau Sparks
vs
Jelani McDonald
X · TXST
CB1 · TEX
80.3
81.4
dead even
when TXST runs
Jaylen Jenkins
vs
Rasheem Biles
RB · TXST
MLB · TEX
53.2
93.7
TEX +40
when TEX runs
Hollywood Smothers
vs
Terrence Cooks II
RB · TEX
MLB · TXST
82.9
60.0
TEX +23
when TEX throws
Emmett Mosley V
vs
Ryan Nolan
X · TEX
CB1 · TXST
76.6
65.1
TEX +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
84.810/308
WRBeau Sparks
80.320/777
WRChris Dawn Jr.
71.346/777
DBRyan Nolan
65.1354/1427
TEBlake Smith
64.125/287
LBTerrence Cooks II
60.0288/878
Texas
LBRasheem Biles
93.72/878
QBArch Manningout
86.38/308
RBHollywood Smothers
82.914/514
DBJelani McDonald
81.475/1427
LBJustin Cryerprobable
77.585/878
WREmmett Mosley V
76.630/777

also out — Lake Travis player, LT (LT), all-sec starting left tackle (OL), North Texas player, care, Ty'Anthony Smith (LB), After Missing, Texas (OL)

Projected margin

80% between 11 and 49
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEX +32.4MKT95% interval: 3 to 5980% interval: 11 to 49+11+49TXST wins 1%TEX wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEX 49–14 TXSTTEX 46–39 TXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 49–35 TXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEX 53–32 TXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEX 56–28 TXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 60–25 TXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 63–21 TXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEX 67–18 TXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 70–14 TXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 74–11 TXST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTEX 42–35 TXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEX 46–32 TXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEX 49–28 TXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEX 53–25 TXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 56–21 TXST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEX 60–18 TXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEX 63–14 TXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEX 67–11 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 70–7 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 39–32 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 42–28 TXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEX 46–25 TXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEX 49–21 TXST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEX 53–18 TXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEX 56–14 TXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 60–11 TXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEX 63–7 TXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEX 67–4 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEX 35–28 TXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEX 39–25 TXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEX 42–21 TXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEX 46–18 TXST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTEX 49–14 TXST neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesTEX 53–11 TXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEX 56–7 TXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 60–4 TXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEX 63–0 TXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEX 32–25 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 35–21 TXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEX 39–18 TXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEX 42–14 TXST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEX 46–11 TXST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTEX 49–7 TXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEX 53–4 TXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEX 56–0 TXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TEX 28–21 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEX 32–18 TXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEX 35–14 TXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEX 39–11 TXST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEX 42–7 TXST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEX 46–4 TXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEX 49–0 TXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TEX 25–18 TXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEX 28–14 TXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEX 32–11 TXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEX 35–7 TXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEX 39–4 TXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEX 42–0 TXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)84777063564942totalTEX +7TEX +21TEX +35TEX +49TEX +63margin →