Passing
TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TXST offense
- #14
- TEX defense
- #20
EPA comparison
0.48
#14
0.00
#20
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
TXST 7.9%92.2% TEX
- Projected margin
- TEX by 22.6
- Projected total
- 57
- 80% outcome range
- TEX 2 to TEX 43
- Win probability
- TEX 92.2%
FinalTXST 7 · TEX 59model had +22.6, off by 29.4
Current team profiles
Texas State
TexasWhen Texas State has the ball
Rushing
TEX defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TXST offense
- #63
- TEX defense
- #22
EPA comparison
0.12
#63
-0.09
#22
Rush EPA
Drive success
TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TXST offense
- #23
- TEX defense
- #25
Success rates
49%
#23
35%
#25
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#30
-0.05
#23
EPA / play
1.27
#43
1.04
#7
Explosiveness
14%
#49
21%
#10
Havoc
When Texas has the ball
Passing
TEX offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TXST defense
- #113
- TEX offense
- #60
EPA comparison
0.32
#113
0.26
#60
Pass EPA
Rushing
TXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TXST defense
- #34
- TEX offense
- #93
EPA comparison
-0.04
#34
0.04
#93
Rush EPA
Drive success
TEX offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TXST defense
- #112
- TEX offense
- #69
Success rates
45%
#112
44%
#69
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#90
0.08
#96
EPA / play
1.20
#65
1.18
#97
Explosiveness
15%
#90
17%
#110
Havoc
Current key players
Texas StateQBBrad Jackson
1226 yds · 13 TD · 5 INT
82.459/729
WRLa'Keyleon Graves
1 rec · 49 yds · 1 TD
83.928/2069
LBAyden Jones
31 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.2
- Coverage
- 74.7
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 14
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
80.181/1796
RBJuntavious Harris
80 yds · 1 TD · 8.9 YPC
78.5101/1044
DBRyan Nolan
29 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 65.8
- Coverage
- 80.3
- Targets allowed
- 17
- Rec allowed
- 11
- Yards allowed
- 131
- Passer rating allowed
- 102.8
- Missed tackles
- 5
78.486/2969
WRDameon Crowe
4 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
74.8131/2069
Availability reports · 3
- Cole Snodgrass · TEout · 2026-10-01
Snodgrass is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to suit up against the San Diego State on Saturday.
- Kylen Evans · WRQues. · 2026-09-27
vans is nursing with a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will face San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.
- Jordan Sample · LBQues. · 2026-09-27
Sample is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.
TexasQBArch Manning
865 yds · 7 TD · 3 INT
74.8113/729
WRSterling Berkhalter
3 rec · 34 yds · 0 TD
83.729/2069
DBJelani McDonald
26 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.2
- Coverage
- 73.5
- Targets allowed
- 11
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 56
- Passer rating allowed
- 118.2
- Missed tackles
- 3
76.3149/2969
RBHollywood Smothers
198 yds · 2 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.1147/1044
DBGraceson Littleton
14 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.1
- Coverage
- 75.0
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 11
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 59.2
- Missed tackles
- 3
76.0161/2969
WRCam Coleman
11 rec · 194 yds · 4 TD
70.5246/2069
Availability reports · 4
- Trevor Goosby · OGQues. · 2026-10-11
Goosby is dealing with a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.
- Zion Williams · DLQues. · 2026-10-11
Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.
- Kaliq Lockett · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Lockett is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.
- Daylan McCutcheon · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
McCutcheon is ailing from an illness, and it is unclear if he will play against Gators on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
TXSTTexas State
TEXTexas
vs
Offense
82.4
#50 of 138
QB
Quarterback
74.8
#83 of 138
78.2
#46 of 138
RB
Running backs
74.0
#82 of 138
77.4
#21 of 138
WR
Receivers
74.5
#37 of 138
64.5
#94 of 138
TE
Tight ends
63.2
#103 of 138
69.2
#61 of 138
OL
Offensive line
76.6
#10 of 138
Defense
81.3
#12 of 138
DL
Defensive line
77.9
#24 of 138
75.1
#58 of 138
LB
Linebackers
66.3
#127 of 138
71.2
#81 of 138
DB
Secondary
70.6
#89 of 138