AVRCFB Model
All rankings
Pac-12

Texas State

Bobcats0-01st in Pac-12
Bobcat Stadium (TX) · San Marcos, TX · 30,000
Rank —
59
Rating
51.4
TeamOffense-leaning roster
OffenseQuarterback-driven, veteran line
DefenseUnprovenweak point: linebacker, 106th

The season ahead

11 games scheduled

Schedule

11 games
WkOpponentWin probDateProjectedGame page
1
at#9Texas
1%
Sep 514-47p›
2
vs#62UTSA
51%
Sep 1231-31p›
3
vs#80North Texas
65%
Sep 2034-29p›
4
vsIncarnate Word
97%
Sep 2643-17p›
5
at#64San Diego State
44%
Oct 427-29p›
7
vs#129Colorado State
90%
Oct 1638-20p›
8
vs#92Utah State
74%
Oct 2436-27p›
9
at#60Boise State
42%
Nov 129-32p›
10
at#122Oregon State
80%
Nov 835-24p›
11
vs#87Fresno State
69%
Nov 1433-26p›
12
vs#85Washington State
69%
Nov 2132-26p›

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Personnel
#284
Talent
#8564
Position groups2025 player ratings
QB10th
RB97th
WR13th
TE24th
OL18th
DL70th
LB106th
DB111th

Starting eleven

11 personnel
11 of 11 named9 ratedavg 69.94 top-252025 ratings
X80.3
B. Sparks
WR · SR20th
LT91.1
J. Early
OL · SR10th
LG68.1
J. DeLeon
OL · JR76th
C57.6
S. Burns
OL · SR114th
RG—
A. Ross
OL · FR
RT—
W. Boone
OL · JR
TE64.1
B. Smith
TE · SR25th
SL58.6
K. Evans
WR · SO127th
Z71.3
C. Dawn
WR · SR46th
QB84.8
B. Jackson
QB · SO10th
RB53.2
J. Jenkins
RB · SR197th

Roster

Core lineup

2025 ratings
Offense
QB
Brad JacksonSO
84.8
10th QB
RB
Jaylen JenkinsSR
53.2
197th RB
WR
Beau SparksSR
80.3
20th WR
WR
Chris Dawn Jr.SR
71.3
46th WR
TE
Blake SmithSR
64.1
25th TE
Defense
LB
Terrence Cooks IISR
60.0
288th LB
LB
Cole NillesJR
51.9
442nd LB
DB
Ryan NolanSR
65.1
354th DB
DB
Christopher JonesSO
60.0
484th DB
DB
Dexter Ricks Jr.SR
54.5
633rd DB

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

1%–8% playoff odds, on these results

Ranked by how far the result is likely to move their playoff odds. A close game against a good team moves more than a near-certain win, even when losing that one would hurt more.

W9
at#60Boise State
2% lose8% win
±1.8
likely move
in odds
42% to win
W5
at#64San Diego State
2% lose8% win
±1.8
likely move
in odds
44% to win
W2
vs#62UTSA
2% lose7% win
±1.4
likely move
in odds
51% to win
W12
vs#85Washington State
2% lose6% win
±1.4
likely move
in odds
67% to win
W8
vs#92Utah State
2% lose6% win
±1.1
likely move
in odds
72% to win
W11
vs#87Fresno State
2% lose6% win
±1.1
likely move
in odds
67% to win
W3
vs#80North Texas
2% lose6% win
±1.0
likely move
in odds
64% to win
W10
at#122Oregon State
2% lose6% win
±0.7
likely move
in odds
78% to win