Passing
FRES offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FRES offense
- #31
- TXST defense
- #113
EPA comparison
0.37
#31
0.32
#113
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 4:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
FRES 52.8%47.2% TXST
- Projected margin
- FRES by 0.9
- Projected total
- 58
- 80% outcome range
- FRES 20 to TXST 18
- Win probability
- FRES 52.8%
Current team profiles
Fresno State
Texas StateWhen Fresno State has the ball
Rushing
TXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- FRES offense
- #113
- TXST defense
- #34
EPA comparison
-0.01
#113
-0.04
#34
Rush EPA
Drive success
FRES offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FRES offense
- #108
- TXST defense
- #112
Success rates
39%
#108
45%
#112
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#72
0.11
#90
EPA / play
1.35
#17
1.20
#65
Explosiveness
13%
#31
15%
#90
Havoc
When Texas State has the ball
Passing
TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FRES defense
- #49
- TXST offense
- #14
EPA comparison
0.08
#49
0.48
#14
Pass EPA
Rushing
FRES defense
Higher-ranked profile
- FRES defense
- #56
- TXST offense
- #63
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.12
#63
Rush EPA
Drive success
TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FRES defense
- #83
- TXST offense
- #23
Success rates
42%
#83
49%
#23
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#51
0.24
#30
EPA / play
1.17
#43
1.27
#43
Explosiveness
15%
#93
14%
#49
Havoc
Current key players
Fresno StateQBJayden Mandal
1034 yds · 6 TD · 1 INT
69.6157/729
WRJaylen Garrison
1 rec · 17 yds · 0 TD
87.913/2069
DBSimeon Harris
24 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.2
- Coverage
- 89.7
- Targets allowed
- 21
- Rec allowed
- 12
- Yards allowed
- 94
- Passer rating allowed
- 28.8
- Missed tackles
- 1
87.715/2969
RBRayshon Luke
286 yds · 1 TD · 6.8 YPC
83.447/1044
LBJustin Johnson
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 77.7
- Coverage
- 78.2
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
82.659/1796
WRJosiah Freeman
25 rec · 322 yds · 2 TD
76.992/2069
Availability reports · 3
- Brandon Ramirez · RBout · 2026-08-11
Ramirez is out of action due to an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Rayshon Luke · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Luke is dealing with a concussion injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against the State Aztecs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Harold Duvall · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Duvall is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the State Aztecs on Saturday, October 17th.
Texas StateQBBrad Jackson
1226 yds · 13 TD · 5 INT
82.459/729
WRLa'Keyleon Graves
1 rec · 49 yds · 1 TD
83.928/2069
LBAyden Jones
31 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.2
- Coverage
- 74.7
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 14
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
80.181/1796
RBJuntavious Harris
80 yds · 1 TD · 8.9 YPC
78.5101/1044
DBRyan Nolan
29 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 65.8
- Coverage
- 80.3
- Targets allowed
- 17
- Rec allowed
- 11
- Yards allowed
- 131
- Passer rating allowed
- 102.8
- Missed tackles
- 5
78.486/2969
WRDameon Crowe
4 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
74.8131/2069
Availability reports · 3
- Cole Snodgrass · TEout · 2026-10-01
Snodgrass is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to suit up against the San Diego State on Saturday.
- Kylen Evans · WRQues. · 2026-09-27
vans is nursing with a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will face San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.
- Jordan Sample · LBQues. · 2026-09-27
Sample is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
FRESFresno State
TXSTTexas State
vs
Offense
69.6
#102 of 138
QB
Quarterback
82.4
#50 of 138
77.3
#52 of 138
RB
Running backs
78.2
#46 of 138
79.1
#13 of 138
WR
Receivers
77.4
#21 of 138
64.3
#95 of 138
TE
Tight ends
64.5
#94 of 138
59.1
#136 of 138
OL
Offensive line
69.2
#61 of 138
Defense
72.0
#87 of 138
DL
Defensive line
81.3
#12 of 138
72.3
#85 of 138
LB
Linebackers
75.1
#58 of 138
75.5
#28 of 138
DB
Secondary
71.2
#81 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Fresno State
opponent
Texas State
Aaway+20.0
WSUWashington State#101+4.4Hhome
Hhome+9.1
ORSTOregon State#44+0.2Aaway
Hhome-7.0
BOISBoise State#29-13.1Aaway
Hhome+12.3
CSUColorado State#118+8.7Hhome
Aaway+2.9
USUUtah State#97+4.7Hhome
Aaway-2.0
SDSUSan Diego State#104-2.0Aaway