AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 9:00 PM
#87Away
Fresno State
0-0 · AVR 44.5
26p
#59Home
Texas State
0-0 · AVR 51.4
33p
FRES 33%67% TXST
Spread
TXST -6.8
Total
59
Moneyline
FRES+206TXST-206
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FRES advantageevenTXST advantage →
FRES throw
TXST +18
FRES run
even
TXST throw
even
TXST run
TXST line #18TXST backs #97
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TXST throws
Beau Sparks
vs
Simeon Harris
X · TXST
CB1 · FRES
80.3
91.7
FRES +11
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Jaylen Early
vs
Sione Noa
LT · TXST
EDGE · FRES
91.1
78.7
TXST +12
over the middle
Blake Smith
vs
Loyall Mouzon
TE · TXST
FS · FRES
64.1
78.6
FRES +14
off the edge· hunting Martin
Rolan Fullwood
vs
DonTerry Russell
LT · FRES
EDGE · TXST
52.6
83.6
TXST +31
when FRES runs
Rayshon Luke
vs
Terrence Cooks II
RB · FRES
MLB · TXST
64.5
60.0
FRES +5
when FRES throws
Josiah Freeman
vs
Ryan Nolan
X · FRES
CB1 · TXST
52.5
65.1
TXST +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Fresno State
DBSimeon Harris
91.77/1427
DBRJ Regan
85.441/1427
DBRyan Wilson
82.865/1427
RBRayshon Luke
64.577/514
LBJustin Johnson
61.1266/878
LBK'vion Thunderbird
58.5324/878

also out — B. Ramirez (RB)

Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
84.810/308
WRBeau Sparks
80.320/777
WRChris Dawn Jr.
71.346/777
DBRyan Nolan
65.1354/1427
TEBlake Smith
64.125/287
LBTerrence Cooks II
60.0288/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Fresno State
opponent
Texas State
away-2.6
Washington State#85
+6.6home
away-0.5
Utah State#92
+8.7home
home+12.9
Colorado State#129
+17.1home
away-6.4
San Diego State#64
-2.2away
home+12.2
Oregon State#122
+11.4away
home-2.1
Boise State#60
-2.8away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTXST +6.895% interval: -17.2 to 30.780% interval: -10.6 to 24.1-11+24FRES wins 33%TXST wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TXST 32–25 FRESTXST 28–49 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 32–46 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 35–42 FRES neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 39–39 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTXST 42–35 FRES neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTXST 46–32 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTXST 49–28 FRES neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTXST 53–25 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 56–21 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 25–46 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 28–42 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 32–39 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 35–35 FRES neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 39–32 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 42–28 FRES neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 46–25 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 49–21 FRES neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTXST 53–18 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 21–42 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 25–39 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 28–35 FRES neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 32–32 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 35–28 FRES neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTXST 39–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTXST 42–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 46–18 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 49–14 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 18–39 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 21–35 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 25–32 FRES neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 28–28 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 32–25 FRES neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTXST 35–21 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTXST 39–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTXST 42–14 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 46–11 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 14–35 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 18–32 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 21–28 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTXST 25–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTXST 28–21 FRES neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTXST 32–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTXST 35–14 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 39–11 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTXST 42–7 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTXST 11–32 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 14–28 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 18–25 FRES neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 21–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 25–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTXST 28–14 FRES neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTXST 32–11 FRES neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTXST 35–7 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTXST 39–4 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTXST 7–28 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTXST 11–25 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 14–21 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 18–18 FRES neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTXST 21–14 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTXST 25–11 FRES neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTXST 28–7 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTXST 32–4 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTXST 35–0 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalFRES +21FRES +7TXST +7TXST +21TXST +35margin →