CFB
Model
All rankings
Pac-12

Fresno State

Bulldogs4-24th in Pac-12
Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno, CA · 41,031
TeamShort on both sides
OffenseBoom-or-bust passing attack · averageweak point: run game, 113th
DefenseBend-don't-break · solidweak point: generating pressure, 93rd

The season

Best win
W 26-6 @ #101 Washington State
Wk 5 · Oct 3 · model had 52%
Worst loss
L 31-38 vs #29 Boise State
Wk 6 · Oct 10 · model had 34%

Schedule

model 6/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 4
    atUSC
    L 0–39
    Win chance 3%Model margin -24.8Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsSacramento State
    W 49–3
    Win chance 77%Model margin +10.0Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    atSan José State
    W 26–10
    Win chance 62%Model margin +4.0Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsRice
    W 38–24
    Win chance 84%Model margin +13.4Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    atWashington State
    W 26–6
    Win chance 52%Model margin +0.6Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    vsBoise State
    L 31–38
    Win chance 34%Model margin -5.4Game details
  7. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atSan Diego State
    Win chance 44%Model margin -2.0Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsOregon State
    Win chance 75%Model margin +9.1Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 8
    atUtah State
    Win chance 59%Model margin +2.9Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atTexas State
    Win chance 53%Model margin +0.9Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 22
    vsColorado State
    Win chance 82%Model margin +12.3Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
52
#64 of 138
Defense efficiency
45
#74 of 138
Efficiency
#720.14
EPA / play
#510.02
#310.37
Pass
#490.08
#113-0.01
Rush
#560.02
#10839%
Success
#8342%
Big plays & havoc
#171.35
Explosive
#431.17
#3113%
Havoc
#9315%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB102nd
RB52nd
WR13th
TE95th
OL136th
DL87th
LB85th
DB28th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Jayden MandalJR
1034 yds · 6 TD · 1 INT
69.6
157th QB
RB
Rayshon LukeSR
286 yds · 1 TD · 6.8 YPC
83.4
47th RB
WR
Jaylen GarrisonSR
1 rec · 17 yds · 0 TD
87.9
13th WR
WR
Josiah FreemanSR
25 rec · 322 yds · 2 TD
76.9
92nd WR
TE
Jake ApplegetSR
5 rec · 51 yds · 0 TD
64.3
172nd TE
Defense
LB
Justin JohnsonJR
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
82.6
59th LB
LB
Niko BaumgartnerFR
9 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
68.8
421st LB
DB
Simeon HarrisSR
24 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
87.7
15th DB
DB
Loyall MouzonSO
10 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
76.0
160th DB
DB
Jaden CarrilloJR
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
73.0
275th DB

Injury report

1 out
out
Brandon RamirezRB

Ramirez is out of action due to an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

80.0202508-11
Ques.
Rayshon LukeRB

Luke is dealing with a concussion injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against the State Aztecs on Saturday, October 17th.

83.410-11
Ques.
Harold DuvallWR

Duvall is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the State Aztecs on Saturday, October 17th.

72.410-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atSan Diego State
    Playoff chance if win
    1.4%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.3%
  2. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsOregon State
    Playoff chance if win
    1.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  3. Week 10 · Nov 8
    atUtah State
    Playoff chance if win
    1.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atTexas State
    Playoff chance if win
    1.2%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.3%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 22
    vsColorado State
    Playoff chance if win
    0.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.2%

Past seasons

Year by year
-6.0 points since 2022
405060708063.1202254.3202357.8202457.12025
2022 63.12023 54.32024 57.82025 57.1

2025

8-4
D-I rank
#82
Rating
57.1
Listed games · 12
LWWWWWLLWWLW
317 pts scored241 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at KansasL 7–31
  2. W1 vs Georgia SouthernW 42–14
  3. W2 at Oregon StateW 36–27
  4. W3 vs SouthernW 56–7
  5. W4 at Hawai'iW 23–21
  6. W6 vs NevadaW 20–17
  7. W7 at Colorado StateL 21–49
  8. W9 vs San Diego StateL 0–23
  9. W10 at Boise StateW 30–7
  10. W12 vs WyomingW 24–3
  11. W13 vs Utah StateL 17–28
  12. W14 at San José StateW 41–14

2024

6-6
D-I rank
#82
Rating
57.8
Listed games · 12
LWWWLLWWLLWL
319 pts scored295 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at MichiganL 10–30
  2. W2 vs Sacramento StateW 46–30
  3. W3 vs New Mexico StateW 48–0
  4. W4 at New MexicoW 38–21
  5. W5 at UNLVL 14–59
  6. W7 vs Washington StateL 17–25
  7. W8 at NevadaW 24–21
  8. W9 vs San José StateW 33–10
  9. W10 vs Hawai'iL 20–21
  10. W11 at Air ForceL 28–36
  11. W13 vs Colorado StateW 28–22
  12. W14 at UCLAL 13–20

2023

8-4
D-I rank
#94
Rating
54.3
Listed games · 12
WWWWWLWWWLLL
359 pts scored295 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at PurdueW 39–35
  2. W2 vs Eastern WashingtonW 34–31
  3. W3 at Arizona StateW 29–0
  4. W4 vs Kent StateW 53–10
  5. W5 vs NevadaW 27–9
  6. W6 at WyomingL 19–24
  7. W7 at Utah StateW 37–32
  8. W9 vs UNLVW 31–24
  9. W10 vs Boise StateW 37–30
  10. W11 at San José StateL 18–42
  11. W12 vs New MexicoL 17–25
  12. W13 at San Diego StateL 18–33

2022

9-4
D-I rank
#58
Rating
63.1
Listed games · 13
WLLLLWWWWWWWW
399 pts scored266 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Cal PolyW 35–7
  2. W2 vs Oregon StateL 32–35
  3. W3 at USCL 17–45
  4. W5 at UConnL 14–19
  5. W6 at Boise StateL 20–40
  6. W7 vs San José StateW 17–10
  7. W8 at New MexicoW 41–9
  8. W9 vs San Diego StateW 32–28
  9. W10 vs Hawai'iW 55–13
  10. W11 at UNLVW 37–30
  11. W12 at NevadaW 41–14
  12. W13 vs WyomingW 30–0
  13. W14 at Boise StateW 28–16