AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sun Oct 11 · 2:30 AM
Milk Can
#60Away
Boise State
0-0 · AVR 51.0
30p
#87Home
Fresno State
0-0 · AVR 44.5
28p
BOIS 56%44% FRES
Spread
BOIS -2.1
Total
58
Moneyline
BOIS-126FRES+126
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BOIS advantageevenFRES advantage →
BOIS throw
FRES +32
BOIS run
FRES linebackers #91
BOIS +15
FRES throw
BOIS coverage #43BOIS pass rush #133
BOIS +22
FRES run
BOIS linebackers #65
FRES +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BOIS throws
Ben Ford
vs
Simeon Harris
X · BOIS
CB1 · FRES
59.0
91.7
FRES +33
when BOIS runs
Dylan Riley
vs
Justin Johnson
RB · BOIS
MLB · FRES
79.1
61.1
BOIS +18
off the edge· hunting Madsen
Roger Carreon
vs
Sione Noa
LT · BOIS
EDGE · FRES
59.5
78.7
FRES +19
when FRES runs
Rayshon Luke
vs
Jayden Virgin-Morgan
RB · FRES
MLB · BOIS
64.5
72.5
BOIS +8
over the middle
Matt Wagner
vs
Loyall Mouzon
TE · BOIS
FS · FRES
53.5
78.6
FRES +25
when FRES throws
Josiah Freeman
vs
Jaden Mickey
X · FRES
CB1 · BOIS
52.5
76.9
BOIS +24

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Boise State
RBDylan Riley
79.127/514
DBJaden Mickey
76.9127/1427
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
72.5120/878
DBSherrod Smith
71.1210/1427
DBJeRico Washington Jr.
71.0211/1427
LBBoen Phelps
64.3222/878
Fresno State
DBSimeon Harris
91.77/1427
DBRJ Regan
85.441/1427
DBRyan Wilson
82.865/1427
RBRayshon Luke
64.577/514
LBJustin Johnson
61.1266/878
LBK'vion Thunderbird
58.5324/878

also out — B. Ramirez (RB)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Boise State
opponent
Fresno State
home+2.8
Texas State#59
-6.8away
home+9.0
Utah State#92
-0.5away
home+3.1
San Diego State#64
-6.4away
home+16.8
Oregon State#122
+12.2home
away+1.9
Washington State#85
-2.6away
away+12.4
Colorado State#129
+12.9home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBOIS +2.195% interval: -26 to 21.880% interval: -19.5 to 15.3-19+15BOIS wins 56%FRES wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FRES 28–28 BOISFRES 25–53 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 28–49 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 32–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFRES 35–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFRES 39–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFRES 42–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFRES 46–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFRES 49–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFRES 53–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFRES 21–49 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 25–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFRES 28–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFRES 32–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFRES 35–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFRES 39–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFRES 42–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFRES 46–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFRES 49–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFRES 18–46 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFRES 21–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFRES 25–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFRES 28–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFRES 32–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFRES 35–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFRES 39–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 42–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFRES 46–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 14–42 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFRES 18–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFRES 21–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFRES 25–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFRES 28–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFRES 32–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFRES 35–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFRES 39–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFRES 42–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 11–39 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 14–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFRES 18–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFRES 21–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFRES 25–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFRES 28–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFRES 32–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFRES 35–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFRES 39–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 7–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFRES 11–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFRES 14–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFRES 18–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFRES 21–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFRES 25–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFRES 28–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFRES 32–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFRES 35–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFRES 4–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFRES 7–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFRES 11–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFRES 14–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFRES 18–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFRES 21–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFRES 25–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFRES 28–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFRES 32–4 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalBOIS +28BOIS +14PKFRES +14FRES +28margin →