Passing
BOIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BOIS offense
- #18
- FRES defense
- #49
EPA comparison
0.44
#18
0.08
#49
Pass EPA
- Projected margin
- BOIS by 5.4
- Projected total
- 49
- 80% outcome range
- BOIS 27 to FRES 15
- Win probability
- BOIS 63.2%
FinalBOIS 38 · FRES 31model had -5.4, off by 1.6
Current team profiles
Boise State
Fresno StateWhen Boise State has the ball
Rushing
BOIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BOIS offense
- #25
- FRES defense
- #56
EPA comparison
0.22
#25
0.02
#56
Rush EPA
Drive success
BOIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BOIS offense
- #26
- FRES defense
- #83
Success rates
49%
#26
42%
#83
Success rate
More metrics
0.32
#10
0.02
#51
EPA / play
1.22
#75
1.17
#43
Explosiveness
9%
#5
15%
#93
Havoc
When Fresno State has the ball
Passing
FRES offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BOIS defense
- #55
- FRES offense
- #31
EPA comparison
0.10
#55
0.37
#31
Pass EPA
Rushing
BOIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BOIS defense
- #93
- FRES offense
- #113
EPA comparison
0.10
#93
-0.01
#113
Rush EPA
Drive success
BOIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BOIS defense
- #40
- FRES offense
- #108
Success rates
37%
#40
39%
#108
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#64
0.14
#72
EPA / play
1.62
#138
1.35
#17
Explosiveness
18%
#31
13%
#31
Havoc
Current key players
Boise StateQBMaddux Madsen
1058 yds · 11 TD · 0 INT
90.616/729
TEMatt Wagner
17 rec · 196 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 66.9
- Run blocking
- 75.5
- Penalties
- 0
88.17/1017
RBSire Gaines
234 yds · 2 TD · 5.2 YPC
79.295/1044
LBMax Stege
9 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 72.3
- Coverage
- 59.9
- Pressures
- 18
- Pass-rush snaps
- 132
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
76.1156/1796
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
11 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.8
- Coverage
- 63.1
- Pressures
- 13
- Pass-rush snaps
- 115
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
75.1181/1796
WRRasean Jones
23 rec · 359 yds · 1 TD
75.0125/2069
Availability reports · 2
- Rasean Jones · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Jones is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 24th.
- Cam Bates · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Bates is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 24th.
Fresno StateQBJayden Mandal
1034 yds · 6 TD · 1 INT
69.6157/729
WRJaylen Garrison
1 rec · 17 yds · 0 TD
87.913/2069
DBSimeon Harris
24 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.2
- Coverage
- 89.7
- Targets allowed
- 21
- Rec allowed
- 12
- Yards allowed
- 94
- Passer rating allowed
- 28.8
- Missed tackles
- 1
87.715/2969
RBRayshon Luke
286 yds · 1 TD · 6.8 YPC
83.447/1044
LBJustin Johnson
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 77.7
- Coverage
- 78.2
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
82.659/1796
WRJosiah Freeman
25 rec · 322 yds · 2 TD
76.992/2069
Availability reports · 3
- Brandon Ramirez · RBout · 2026-08-11
Ramirez is out of action due to an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Rayshon Luke · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Luke is dealing with a concussion injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against the State Aztecs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Harold Duvall · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Duvall is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the State Aztecs on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
BOISBoise State
FRESFresno State
vs
Offense
90.6
#18 of 138
QB
Quarterback
69.6
#102 of 138
79.0
#39 of 138
RB
Running backs
77.3
#52 of 138
71.5
#67 of 138
WR
Receivers
79.1
#13 of 138
88.1
#7 of 138
TE
Tight ends
64.3
#95 of 138
70.2
#53 of 138
OL
Offensive line
59.1
#136 of 138
Defense
68.0
#122 of 138
DL
Defensive line
72.0
#87 of 138
74.8
#62 of 138
LB
Linebackers
72.3
#85 of 138
69.3
#107 of 138
DB
Secondary
75.5
#28 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Boise State
opponent
Fresno State
Hhome+19.0
USUUtah State#97+2.9Aaway
Hhome+13.1
TXSTTexas State#55+0.9Aaway
Hhome+10.2
SDSUSan Diego State#104-2.0Aaway
Aaway+9.6
WSUWashington State#101+20.0Aaway
Hhome+16.0
ORSTOregon State#44+9.1Hhome
Aaway+13.8
CSUColorado State#118+12.3Hhome