CFB
Model
All rankings
Pac-12

Boise State

Broncos5-11st in Pac-12
Albertsons Stadium · Boise, ID · 36,387
TeamWell-rounded
OffenseGrinding · elite
DefenseStingy until it breaks · average · built to defend the passweak point: big plays allowed, 138th

The season

Best win
W 38-31 @ #69 Fresno State
Wk 6 · Oct 10 · model had 66%
Worst loss
L 27-34 @ #8 Oregon
Wk 1 · Sep 5 · model had 2%

Schedule

model 6/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    atOregon
    L 27–34
    Win chance 2%Model margin -27.1Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsMemphis
    W 38–20
    Win chance 67%Model margin +6.0Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsSouth Dakota
    W 38–24
    Win chance 99%Model margin +31.6Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    atWestern Michigan
    W 32–7
    Win chance 54%Model margin +1.2Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsUtah State
    W 37–18
    Win chance 93%Model margin +20.4Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    atFresno State
    W 38–31
    Win chance 66%Model margin +5.4Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atWashington State
    Win chance 76%Model margin +9.6Game details
  8. Week 9 · Nov 1
    vsTexas State
    Win chance 83%Model margin +13.1Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atColorado State
    Win chance 85%Model margin +13.8Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsOregon State
    Win chance 88%Model margin +16.0Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 22
    vsSan Diego State
    Win chance 77%Model margin +10.2Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
73
#26 of 138
Defense efficiency
67
#43 of 138
Efficiency
#100.32
EPA / play
#640.06
#180.44
Pass
#550.10
#250.22
Rush
#930.10
#2649%
Success
#4037%
Big plays & havoc
#751.22
Explosive
#1381.62
#59%
Havoc
#3118%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB18th
RB39th
WR67th
TE7th
OL53rd
DL122nd
LB62nd
DB107th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Maddux MadsenSR
1058 yds · 11 TD · 0 INT
90.6
16th QB
RB
Sire GainesSO
234 yds · 2 TD · 5.2 YPC
79.2
95th RB
WR
Rasean JonesFR
23 rec · 359 yds · 1 TD
75.0
125th WR
WR
Ben FordSR
8 rec · 92 yds · 2 TD
70.5
244th WR
TE
Matt WagnerJR
17 rec · 196 yds · 4 TD
88.1
7th TE
Defense
LB
Max StegeSR
9 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.5 sk
76.1
156th LB
LB
Jayden Virgin-MorganSR
11 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
75.1
181st LB
DB
Sherrod SmithJR
16 tkl · 6 PD · 0 INT
73.3
261st DB
DB
Demetrius Freeney Jr.SR
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
71.7
345th DB
DB
Madden SoliaiFR
16 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
69.8
458th DB

Injury report

2 listed
Ques.
Rasean JonesWR

Jones is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 24th.

75.010-11
Ques.
Cam BatesWR

Bates is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 24th.

56.710-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atWashington State
    Playoff chance if win
    17.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    6.7%
  2. Week 9 · Nov 1
    vsTexas State
    Playoff chance if win
    16.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.7%
  3. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atColorado State
    Playoff chance if win
    16.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    6.9%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsOregon State
    Playoff chance if win
    16.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.1%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 22
    vsSan Diego State
    Playoff chance if win
    17.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    6.1%

Past seasons

Year by year
+0.2 points since 2022
505865738065.2202265.1202368.2202465.42025
2022 65.22023 65.12024 68.22025 65.4

2025

9-4
D-I rank
#51
Rating
65.4
Listed games · 13
LWWWLWWWLLWWW
408 pts scored299 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at South FloridaL 7–34
  2. W2 vs Eastern WashingtonW 51–14
  3. W4 at Air ForceW 49–37
  4. W5 vs App StateW 47–14
  5. W6 at Notre DameL 7–28
  6. W7 vs New MexicoW 41–25
  7. W8 vs UNLVW 56–31
  8. W9 at NevadaW 24–3
  9. W10 vs Fresno StateL 7–30
  10. W12 at San Diego StateL 7–17
  11. W13 vs Colorado StateW 49–21
  12. W14 at Utah StateW 25–24
  13. W15 vs UNLVW 38–21

2024

12-1
D-I rank
#36
Rating
68.2
Listed games · 13
WLWWWWWWWWWWW
508 pts scored285 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at Georgia SouthernW 56–45
  2. W2 at OregonL 34–37
  3. W4 vs Portland StateW 56–14
  4. W5 vs Washington StateW 45–24
  5. W6 vs Utah StateW 62–30
  6. W7 at Hawai'iW 28–7
  7. W9 at UNLVW 29–24
  8. W10 vs San Diego StateW 56–24
  9. W11 vs NevadaW 28–21
  10. W12 at San José StateW 42–21
  11. W13 at WyomingW 17–13
  12. W14 vs Oregon StateW 34–18
  13. W15 vs UNLVW 21–7

2023

8-5
D-I rank
#44
Rating
65.1
Listed games · 13
LLWWLWLWLWWWW
428 pts scored323 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at WashingtonL 19–56
  2. W2 vs UCFL 16–18
  3. W3 vs North DakotaW 42–18
  4. W4 at San Diego StateW 34–31
  5. W5 at MemphisL 32–35
  6. W6 vs San José StateW 35–27
  7. W7 at Colorado StateL 30–31
  8. W9 vs WyomingW 32–7
  9. W10 at Fresno StateL 30–37
  10. W11 vs New MexicoW 42–14
  11. W12 at Utah StateW 45–10
  12. W13 vs Air ForceW 27–19
  13. W14 at UNLVW 44–20

2022

9-4
D-I rank
#47
Rating
65.2
Listed games · 13
LWWLWWWWLWWWL
378 pts scored241 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at Oregon StateL 17–34
  2. W2 at New MexicoW 31–14
  3. W3 vs UT MartinW 30–7
  4. W4 at UTEPL 10–27
  5. W5 vs San Diego StateW 35–13
  6. W6 vs Fresno StateW 40–20
  7. W8 at Air ForceW 19–14
  8. W9 vs Colorado StateW 49–10
  9. W10 vs BYUL 28–31
  10. W11 at NevadaW 41–3
  11. W12 at WyomingW 20–17
  12. W13 vs Utah StateW 42–23
  13. W14 vs Fresno StateL 16–28