AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 3:30 PM
#60Away
Boise State
0-0 · AVR 51.0
9p
#2Home
Oregon
0-0 · AVR 85.1
44p
BOIS 1%99% ORE
Spread
ORE -35.2
Total
53
Moneyline
BOIS—ORE—
Against the market
ORE +10.7line ORE -24.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BOIS advantageevenORE advantage →
BOIS throw
ORE +21
BOIS run
ORE linebackers #1
even
ORE throw
BOIS coverage #43BOIS pass rush #133
ORE +40
ORE run
BOIS linebackers #65
ORE +57

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BOIS runs
Dylan Riley
vs
Teitum Tuioti
RB · BOIS
MLB · ORE
79.1
91.9
ORE +13
over the middle
Jamari Johnson
vs
Taebron Bennie-Powell
TE · ORE
FS · BOIS
84.5
70.4
ORE +14
when ORE throws
Jeremiah McClellan
vs
Jaden Mickey
X · ORE
CB1 · BOIS
75.6
76.9
dead even
when ORE runs
Jordon Davison
vs
Jayden Virgin-Morgan
RB · ORE
MLB · BOIS
79.1
72.5
ORE +7
when BOIS throws
Ben Ford
vs
Brandon Finney Jr.
X · BOIS
CB1 · ORE
59.0
88.9
ORE +30
off the edge· hunting Moore
Iapani Laloulu
vs
David Latu
LT · ORE
EDGE · BOIS
79.3
63.8
ORE +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Boise State
RBDylan Riley
79.127/514
DBJaden Mickey
76.9127/1427
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
72.5120/878
DBSherrod Smith
71.1210/1427
DBJeRico Washington Jr.
71.0211/1427
LBBoen Phelps
64.3222/878
Oregon
LBTeitum Tuioti
91.97/878
LBMatayo Uiagalelei
90.610/878
DBBrandon Finney Jr.
88.917/1427
TEJamari Johnson
84.51/287
DBPeyton Woodyard
81.377/1427
QBDante Moorequestionable
79.922/308

also out — Surprise Player Standing, Brayden Platt (LB), J. Davison (RB), Tony Cumberland

Projected margin

80% between 15 and 52
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKORE +35.2MKT95% interval: 6 to 6180% interval: 15 to 52+15+52BOIS wins 1%ORE wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ORE 46–11 BOISORE 42–35 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 46–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 49–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 53–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORE 56–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 60–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORE 63–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 67–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 70–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 39–32 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 42–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORE 46–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 49–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORE 53–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesORE 56–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORE 60–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 63–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 67–4 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 35–28 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 39–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORE 42–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 46–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORE 49–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORE 53–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORE 56–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORE 60–4 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORE 63–0 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 32–25 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 35–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 39–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORE 42–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORE 46–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesORE 49–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORE 53–4 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORE 56–0 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ORE 28–21 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 32–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 35–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORE 39–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORE 42–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesORE 46–4 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORE 49–0 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ORE 25–18 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 28–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORE 32–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 35–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORE 39–4 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORE 42–0 BOIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ORE 21–14 BOIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 25–11 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORE 28–7 BOIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 32–4 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORE 35–0 BOIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalORE +7ORE +21ORE +35ORE +49ORE +63margin →