CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 9:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
SDSU 25.7%74.3% BOIS
Projected margin
BOIS by 10.2
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
SDSU 8 to BOIS 29
Win probability
BOIS 74.3%

Current team profiles

San Diego State
Boise State

When San Diego State has the ball

Passing

BOIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
SDSU offense
#135
BOIS defense
#55
EPA comparison
-0.14
#135
0.10
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

BOIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
SDSU offense
#126
BOIS defense
#93
EPA comparison
-0.08
#126
0.10
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

BOIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
SDSU offense
#135
BOIS defense
#40
Success rates
33%
#135
37%
#40
Success rate
More metrics
-0.12
#136
0.06
#64
EPA / play
1.12
#122
1.62
#138
Explosiveness
16%
#98
18%
#31
Havoc

When Boise State has the ball

Passing

BOIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
SDSU defense
#113
BOIS offense
#18
EPA comparison
0.32
#113
0.44
#18
Pass EPA

Rushing

BOIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
SDSU defense
#56
BOIS offense
#25
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.22
#25
Rush EPA

Drive success

BOIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
SDSU defense
#130
BOIS offense
#26
Success rates
48%
#130
49%
#26
Success rate
More metrics
0.15
#104
0.32
#10
EPA / play
1.08
#15
1.22
#75
Explosiveness
12%
#128
9%
#5
Havoc

Current key players

San Diego State
QBStone Saunders
20 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
74.8116/729
CBMike Lindsay
13 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.5
Coverage
72.8
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
82
Passer rating allowed
32.4
Missed tackles
2
75.4182/2969
LBSione Hala
45 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.8
Coverage
61.4
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
26
Missed tackles
9
Forced fumbles
0
74.1211/1796
RBJavion Kinnard
312 yds · 1 TD · 5.6 YPC
72.7236/1044
WRDaishaun Davis
3 rec · 42 yds · 0 TD
72.3188/2069
TEJack Lua
1 rec · 10 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
73.6
Run blocking
75.7
Penalties
0
71.969/1017
Availability reports · 8
  • Nathan Acevedo · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Acevedo is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Lucky Sutton · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sutton is dealing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jackson Ford · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ford is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Donovan Brown · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brown is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Ryan Wolfer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Wolfer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Aldrich Doe · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Aldrich has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, Octob

  • Jack Ellis · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ellis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Parker Guiltinan · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Guiltinan is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

Boise State
QBMaddux Madsen
1058 yds · 11 TD · 0 INT
90.616/729
TEMatt Wagner
17 rec · 196 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
66.9
Run blocking
75.5
Penalties
0
88.17/1017
RBSire Gaines
234 yds · 2 TD · 5.2 YPC
79.295/1044
LBMax Stege
9 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.3
Coverage
59.9
Pressures
18
Pass-rush snaps
132
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
76.1156/1796
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
11 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.8
Coverage
63.1
Pressures
13
Pass-rush snaps
115
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
75.1181/1796
WRRasean Jones
23 rec · 359 yds · 1 TD
75.0125/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Rasean Jones · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Jones is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cam Bates · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bates is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

SDSU
BOIS
vs
Offense
74.8
#84 of 138
QB
90.6
#18 of 138
72.1
#105 of 138
RB
79.0
#39 of 138
71.5
#68 of 138
WR
71.5
#67 of 138
71.9
#51 of 138
TE
88.1
#7 of 138
70.8
#48 of 138
OL
70.2
#53 of 138
Defense
72.2
#84 of 138
DL
68.0
#122 of 138
69.0
#113 of 138
LB
74.8
#62 of 138
70.4
#90 of 138
DB
69.3
#107 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

San Diego State
opponent
Boise State
A-52.0
ORST#44
+16.0H
H+7.6
USU#97
+19.0H
H+2.0
TXST#55
+13.1H
A+6.3
CSU#118
+13.8A
H+2.0
FRES#69
+7.0A
H+7.4
WSU#101
+9.6A