AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sun Nov 22 · 2:30 AM
#64Away
San Diego State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
26p
#60Home
Boise State
0-0 · AVR 51.0
29p
SDSU 41%59% BOIS
Spread
BOIS -3.1
Total
55
Moneyline
SDSU+143BOIS-143
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SDSU advantageevenBOIS advantage →
SDSU throw
SDSU protection #34BOIS coverage #43
SDSU +4
SDSU run
BOIS linebackers #65
SDSU +40
BOIS throw
SDSU coverage #24SDSU pass rush #96
SDSU +8
BOIS run
BOIS +38

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BOIS throws
Ben Ford
vs
Max Garrison
X · BOIS
CB1 · SDSU
59.0
89.5
SDSU +30
when SDSU runs
Lucky Sutton
vs
Jayden Virgin-Morgan
RB · SDSU
MLB · BOIS
73.8
72.5
dead even
when BOIS runs
Dylan Riley
vs
Tano Letuli
RB · BOIS
MLB · SDSU
79.1
61.6
BOIS +17
off the edge· hunting Madsen
Roger Carreon
vs
Kai Wallin
LT · BOIS
EDGE · SDSU
59.5
72.7
SDSU +13
when SDSU throws
Bert Emanuel Jr.
vs
Jaden Mickey
X · SDSU
CB1 · BOIS
51.4
76.9
BOIS +26
off the edge· hunting Denegal
Kalan Ellis
vs
David Latu
LT · SDSU
EDGE · BOIS
63.6
63.8
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
San Diego State
SMax Garrison
89.513/1427
SJalen Thomeson
76.7129/1427
SDalesean Staley
76.2136/1427
RBLucky Sutton
73.839/514
LBTano Letuli
61.6258/878
QBJayden Denegal
56.486/308
Boise State
RBDylan Riley
79.127/514
DBJaden Mickey
76.9127/1427
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
72.5120/878
DBSherrod Smith
71.1210/1427
DBJeRico Washington Jr.
71.0211/1427
LBBoen Phelps
64.3222/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
San Diego State
opponent
Boise State
away+11.1
Oregon State#122
+16.8home
home+6.3
Washington State#85
+1.9away
home+6.4
Fresno State#87
+2.1away
home+2.2
Texas State#59
+2.8home
away+11.8
Colorado State#129
+12.4away
home+8.4
Utah State#92
+9.0home

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBOIS +3.195% interval: -20.8 to 2780% interval: -14.3 to 20.5-14+21SDSU wins 41%BOIS wins 59%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BOIS 28–28 SDSUBOIS 25–53 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBOIS 28–49 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBOIS 32–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBOIS 35–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 39–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBOIS 42–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBOIS 46–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBOIS 49–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBOIS 53–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBOIS 21–49 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 25–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 28–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 32–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 35–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBOIS 39–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 42–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBOIS 46–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBOIS 49–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 18–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 21–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 25–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBOIS 28–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 32–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBOIS 35–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBOIS 39–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 42–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 46–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 14–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 18–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBOIS 21–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 25–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBOIS 28–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBOIS 32–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBOIS 35–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 39–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBOIS 42–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 11–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 14–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 18–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBOIS 21–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 25–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBOIS 28–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBOIS 32–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 35–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 39–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 7–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 11–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 14–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 18–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 21–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBOIS 25–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBOIS 28–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBOIS 32–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBOIS 35–7 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 4–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBOIS 7–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 11–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBOIS 14–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBOIS 18–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 21–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 25–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 28–7 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBOIS 32–4 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalSDSU +28SDSU +14PKBOIS +14BOIS +28margin →