AVRCFB Model
All rankings
Pac-12

San Diego State

Aztecs0-03rd in Pac-12
Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego, CA · 35,000
Rank —
64
Rating
50.2
TeamDefense-leaning roster
OffenseUnprovenweak point: tight end, 97th
DefenseExperienced secondary

The season ahead

11 games scheduled

Schedule

11 games
WkOpponentWin probDateProjectedGame page
1
vsPortland State
100%
Sep 549-9p›
2
at#53UCLA
34%
Sep 1223-29p›
3
vs#55James Madison
51%
Sep 2026-26p›
4
at#73Toledo
49%
Sep 2626-26p›
5
vs#59Texas State
56%
Oct 429-27p›
6
at#122Oregon State
80%
Oct 1032-21p›
7
vs#87Fresno StateOil Can
68%
Oct 1830-23p›
8
at#129Colorado State
81%
Oct 2532-20p›
9
vs#85Washington State
68%
Oct 3129-22p›
11
vs#92Utah State
73%
Nov 1532-24p›
12
at#60Boise State
41%
Nov 2226-29p›

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Personnel
#10463
Talent
#2776
Position groups2025 player ratings
QB77th
RB38th
WR86th
TE97th
OL34th
DL96th
LB93rd
DB24th

Starting eleven

11 personnel
11 of 11 named7 ratedavg 55.62025 ratings
X51.4
B. Emanuel
WR · SR272nd
LT63.6
K. Ellis
OL · SR90th
LG—
D. Jones
OL · SR
C—
I. Lucas
OL · JR
RG—
J. Borjon
OL · SR
RT—
A. Wnetrzak
OL · FR
TE43.4
R. Wolfer
TE · SO185th
SL49.8
J. Napier
WR · JR315th
Z50.7
J. Lowe
WR · SR290th
QB56.4
J. Denegal
QB · SR86th
RB73.8
L. Sutton
RB · SR39th

Roster

Core lineup

2025 ratings
Offense
QB
Jayden DenegalSR
56.4
86th QB
RB
Lucky SuttonSR
73.8
39th RB
WR
Bert Emanuel Jr.SR
51.4
272nd WR
WR
Justius LoweSR
50.7
290th WR
TE
Ryan WolferSO
43.4
185th TE
Defense
LB
Tano LetuliSR
61.6
258th LB
LB
Oberhiri EyafeSO
56.2
367th LB
S
Max GarrisonSR
89.5
13th DB
S
Jalen ThomesonJR
76.7
129th DB
S
Dalesean StaleySR
76.2
136th DB

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

1%–8% playoff odds, on these results

Ranked by how far the result is likely to move their playoff odds. A close game against a good team moves more than a near-certain win, even when losing that one would hurt more.

W5
vs#59Texas State
2% lose7% win
±1.8
likely move
in odds
56% to win
W12
at#60Boise State
3% lose8% win
±1.4
likely move
in odds
41% to win
W3
vs#55James Madison
2% lose7% win
±1.4
likely move
in odds
51% to win
W7
vs#87Fresno State
2% lose6% win
±1.3
likely move
in odds
67% to win
W9
vs#85Washington State
1% lose6% win
±1.3
likely move
in odds
67% to win
W2
at#53UCLA
3% lose8% win
±1.1
likely move
in odds
35% to win
W11
vs#92Utah State
2% lose6% win
±1.0
likely move
in odds
72% to win
W6
at#122Oregon State
1% lose6% win
±0.9
likely move
in odds
78% to win