AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sun Sep 20 · 2:00 AM
#55Away
James Madison
0-0 · AVR 53.7
26p
#64Home
San Diego State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
26p
JMU 49%51% SDSU
Spread
SDSU -0.2
Total
51
Moneyline
JMU+104SDSU-104
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← JMU advantageevenSDSU advantage →
JMU throw
JMU protection #122SDSU coverage #24
SDSU +33
JMU run
SDSU +20
SDSU throw
SDSU protection #34
JMU +16
SDSU run
SDSU +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SDSU runs
Lucky Sutton
vs
Gannon Weathersby
RB · SDSU
MLB · JMU
73.8
77.9
JMU +4
off the edge· hunting Denegal
Kalan Ellis
vs
Amar Thomas
LT · SDSU
EDGE · JMU
63.6
86.0
JMU +22
when JMU throws
Za'Ron Collins
vs
Max Garrison
X · JMU
CB1 · SDSU
52.8
89.5
SDSU +37
when SDSU throws
Bert Emanuel Jr.
vs
DJ Kelly
X · SDSU
CB1 · JMU
51.4
87.2
JMU +36
when JMU runs
George Pettaway
vs
Tano Letuli
RB · JMU
MLB · SDSU
53.5
61.6
SDSU +8
over the middle
Ryan Wolfer
vs
TJ McGill
TE · SDSU
FS · JMU
43.4
57.7
JMU +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
James Madison
CBDJ Kelly
87.226/1427
SKJ Flowe
84.649/1427
LBGannon Weathersby
77.983/878
SJoshua Prince
69.4256/1427
LBLee Johnson
64.8219/878
LBJayden Studio
58.8316/878
San Diego State
SMax Garrison
89.513/1427
SJalen Thomeson
76.7129/1427
SDalesean Staley
76.2136/1427
RBLucky Sutton
73.839/514
LBTano Letuli
61.6258/878
QBJayden Denegal
56.486/308

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSDSU +0.295% interval: -23.7 to 24.180% interval: -17.2 to 17.6-17+18JMU wins 49%SDSU wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SDSU 25–25 JMUSDSU 21–49 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 25–46 JMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSDSU 28–42 JMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSDSU 32–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSDSU 35–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSDSU 39–32 JMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 42–28 JMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSDSU 46–25 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 49–21 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 18–46 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 21–42 JMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSDSU 25–39 JMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSDSU 28–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSDSU 32–32 JMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSDSU 35–28 JMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSDSU 39–25 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSDSU 42–21 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSDSU 46–18 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 14–42 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 18–39 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 21–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSDSU 25–32 JMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSDSU 28–28 JMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSDSU 32–25 JMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSDSU 35–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSDSU 39–18 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 42–14 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 11–39 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 14–35 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 18–32 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSDSU 21–28 JMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSDSU 25–25 JMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSDSU 28–21 JMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSDSU 32–18 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSDSU 35–14 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 39–11 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 7–35 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 11–32 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSDSU 14–28 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSDSU 18–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSDSU 21–21 JMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSDSU 25–18 JMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSDSU 28–14 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 32–11 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSDSU 35–7 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 4–32 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 7–28 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 11–25 JMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSDSU 14–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSDSU 18–18 JMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSDSU 21–14 JMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSDSU 25–11 JMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSDSU 28–7 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 32–4 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 0–28 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSDSU 4–25 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSDSU 7–21 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 11–18 JMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSDSU 14–14 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 18–11 JMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSDSU 21–7 JMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSDSU 25–4 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSDSU 28–0 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalJMU +28JMU +14PKSDSU +14SDSU +28margin →