CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 9:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
PRST 0.2%99.8% SDSU
Projected margin
SDSU by 45.7
Projected total
60
80% outcome range
SDSU 25 to SDSU 66
Win probability
SDSU 99.8%
FinalPRST 20 · SDSU 53model had +45.7, off by 12.7

Current team profiles

Portland State
San Diego State

When Portland State has the ball

Passing

No comparison
PRST offense
—
SDSU defense
#113
EPA comparison
—
0.32
#113
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
PRST offense
—
SDSU defense
#56
EPA comparison
—
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
PRST offense
#76
SDSU defense
#130
Success rates
43%
#76
48%
#130
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#76
0.15
#104
EPA / play
0.18
#109
1.08
#15
Explosiveness
—
12%
#128
Havoc

When San Diego State has the ball

Passing

No comparison
PRST defense
—
SDSU offense
#135
EPA comparison
—
-0.14
#135
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
PRST defense
—
SDSU offense
#126
EPA comparison
—
-0.08
#126
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
PRST defense
#114
SDSU offense
#135
Success rates
48%
#114
33%
#135
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#110
-0.12
#136
EPA / play
0.25
#121
1.12
#122
Explosiveness
—
16%
#98
Havoc

Current key players

Portland State
QBTyrese Smith
268 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
77.356/370
RBBo Gionet
— yds · — TD · — YPC
84.013/631
QBJohn-Keawe Sagapolutele
161 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
76.559/370
DBTerahiti Wolfe
7 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.3
Coverage
77.9
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
66
Passer rating allowed
46.7
Missed tackles
1
75.7121/1765
RBDelon Thompson
411 yds · 3 TD · 5.1 YPC
73.4108/631
KJoshua Hossmann Lees
6/8 FG · 0%
73.355/416
San Diego State
QBStone Saunders
20 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
74.8116/729
CBMike Lindsay
13 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.5
Coverage
72.8
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
82
Passer rating allowed
32.4
Missed tackles
2
75.4182/2969
LBSione Hala
45 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.8
Coverage
61.4
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
26
Missed tackles
9
Forced fumbles
0
74.1211/1796
RBJavion Kinnard
312 yds · 1 TD · 5.6 YPC
72.7236/1044
WRDaishaun Davis
3 rec · 42 yds · 0 TD
72.3188/2069
TEJack Lua
1 rec · 10 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
73.6
Run blocking
75.7
Penalties
0
71.969/1017
Availability reports · 8
  • Nathan Acevedo · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Acevedo is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Lucky Sutton · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sutton is dealing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jackson Ford · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ford is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Donovan Brown · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brown is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Ryan Wolfer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Wolfer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Aldrich Doe · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Aldrich has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, Octob

  • Jack Ellis · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ellis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Parker Guiltinan · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Guiltinan is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

PRST
SDSU
vs
Offense
77.3
#44 of 125
QB
74.8
#84 of 138
78.7
#14 of 126
RB
72.1
#105 of 138
67.2
#82 of 126
WR
71.5
#68 of 138
59.6
#96 of 124
TE
71.9
#51 of 138
56.1
#123 of 125
OL
70.8
#48 of 138
Defense
63.0
#124 of 126
DL
72.2
#84 of 138
65.8
#110 of 126
LB
69.0
#113 of 138
69.1
#90 of 126
DB
70.4
#90 of 138
Common opponents