AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sun Oct 25 · 1:30 AM
#64Away
San Diego State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
32p
#129Home
Colorado State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
20p
SDSU 79%21% CSU
Spread
SDSU -11.8
Total
52
Moneyline
SDSU-370CSU+370
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SDSU advantageevenCSU advantage →
SDSU throw
SDSU protection #34
SDSU +34
SDSU run
SDSU +60
CSU throw
SDSU coverage #24SDSU pass rush #96
SDSU +40
CSU run
CSU backs #80
SDSU +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CSU throws
Tay Lanier
vs
Max Garrison
X · CSU
CB1 · SDSU
52.7
89.5
SDSU +37
over the middle
Juice Vereen
vs
Kaimana Tufaga
TE · CSU
FS · SDSU
73.8
68.2
CSU +6
when SDSU runs
Lucky Sutton
vs
Paul Tangelo
RB · SDSU
MLB · CSU
73.8
59.0
SDSU +15
off the edge· hunting Denegal
Kalan Ellis
vs
Gabe Jones
LT · SDSU
EDGE · CSU
63.6
62.7
dead even
when CSU runs
Mel Brown
vs
Tano Letuli
RB · CSU
MLB · SDSU
55.6
61.6
SDSU +6
when SDSU throws
Bert Emanuel Jr.
vs
Lemondre Joe
X · SDSU
CB1 · CSU
51.4
56.5
CSU +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
San Diego State
SMax Garrison
89.513/1427
SJalen Thomeson
76.7129/1427
SDalesean Staley
76.2136/1427
RBLucky Sutton
73.839/514
LBTano Letuli
61.6258/878
QBJayden Denegal
56.486/308
Colorado State
TEJuice Vereen
73.84/287
LBPaul Tangelo
59.0310/878
DBLemondre Joe
56.5574/1427
RBMel Brown
55.6161/514
WRTay Lanier
52.7240/777
DBJahari Rogers
51.6714/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
San Diego State
opponent
Colorado State
home+2.2
Texas State#59
-17.1away
home+6.4
Fresno State#87
-12.9away
home+6.3
Washington State#85
-13.0away
home+8.4
Utah State#92
-10.9away
away-3.1
Boise State#60
-12.4home
away+11.1
Oregon State#122
+1.8home

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSDSU +11.895% interval: -35.7 to 12.180% interval: -29.2 to 5.6-29+6SDSU wins 79%CSU wins 21%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SDSU 32–18 CSUCSU 14–56 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCSU 18–53 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 21–49 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCSU 25–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCSU 28–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCSU 32–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCSU 35–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCSU 39–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCSU 42–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCSU 11–53 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 14–49 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 18–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCSU 21–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCSU 25–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCSU 28–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCSU 32–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCSU 35–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCSU 39–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 7–49 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 11–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 14–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCSU 18–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCSU 21–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCSU 25–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCSU 28–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCSU 32–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCSU 35–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 4–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 7–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCSU 11–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCSU 14–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCSU 18–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCSU 21–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCSU 25–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCSU 28–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCSU 32–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 0–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 4–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 7–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCSU 11–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCSU 14–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCSU 18–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCSU 21–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCSU 25–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCSU 28–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CSU 0–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 4–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCSU 7–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCSU 11–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCSU 14–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCSU 18–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCSU 21–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCSU 25–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)CSU 0–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCSU 4–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCSU 7–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCSU 11–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCSU 14–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCSU 18–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 21–7 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalSDSU +42SDSU +28SDSU +14PKCSU +14margin →