AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 10:00 PM
#64Away
San Diego State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
32p
#122Home
Oregon State
0-0 · AVR 30.8
21p
SDSU 78%22% ORST
Spread
SDSU -11.1
Total
53
Moneyline
SDSU-349ORST+349
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SDSU advantageevenORST advantage →
SDSU throw
SDSU protection #34
SDSU +11
SDSU run
SDSU +28
ORST throw
ORST protection #57SDSU coverage #24
SDSU +39
ORST run
ORST +4

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SDSU runs
Lucky Sutton
vs
Aiden Sullivan
RB · SDSU
MLB · ORST
73.8
70.3
SDSU +4
when ORST throws
Karson Boschma
vs
Max Garrison
X · ORST
CB1 · SDSU
42.5
89.5
SDSU +47
off the edge· hunting Denegal
Kalan Ellis
vs
Tygee Hill
LT · SDSU
EDGE · ORST
63.6
65.5
dead even
when SDSU throws
Bert Emanuel Jr.
vs
Sailasa Vadrawale III
X · SDSU
CB1 · ORST
51.4
72.4
ORST +21
off the edge· hunting Murphy
Nathan Elu
vs
Kai Wallin
LT · ORST
EDGE · SDSU
48.3
72.7
SDSU +24
when ORST runs
AJ Newberry
vs
Tano Letuli
RB · ORST
MLB · SDSU
53.9
61.6
SDSU +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
San Diego State
SMax Garrison
89.513/1427
SJalen Thomeson
76.7129/1427
SDalesean Staley
76.2136/1427
RBLucky Sutton
73.839/514
LBTano Letuli
61.6258/878
QBJayden Denegal
56.486/308
Oregon State
DBSailasa Vadrawale III
72.4183/1427
LBAiden Sullivan
70.3141/878
LBTakari Hickle
67.3189/878
DBZephen Walker
57.5549/1427
DBHarlem Howard
56.2585/1427
RBAJ Newberry
53.9182/514

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
San Diego State
opponent
Oregon State
home+6.4
Fresno State#87
-12.2away
away-3.1
Boise State#60
-16.8away
home+2.2
Texas State#59
-11.4home
away+11.8
Colorado State#129
-1.8away
home+8.4
Utah State#92
-5.2home
home+6.3
Washington State#85
-7.3home

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSDSU +11.195% interval: -35 to 12.880% interval: -28.5 to 6.3-28+6SDSU wins 78%ORST wins 22%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SDSU 35–21 ORSTORST 18–60 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesORST 21–56 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORST 25–53 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORST 28–49 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORST 32–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORST 35–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORST 39–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORST 42–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORST 46–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 14–56 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORST 18–53 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 21–49 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORST 25–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORST 28–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 32–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 35–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORST 39–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORST 42–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORST 11–53 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORST 14–49 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORST 18–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORST 21–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 25–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORST 28–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORST 32–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORST 35–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORST 39–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 7–49 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 11–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORST 14–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORST 18–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORST 21–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORST 25–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORST 28–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 32–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORST 35–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORST 4–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 7–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORST 11–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORST 14–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORST 18–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORST 21–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORST 25–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 28–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORST 32–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORST 0–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORST 4–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORST 7–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORST 11–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 14–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORST 18–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORST 21–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORST 25–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORST 28–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ORST 0–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 4–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORST 7–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORST 11–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 14–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 18–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORST 21–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORST 25–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes77706356494235totalSDSU +42SDSU +28SDSU +14PKORST +14margin →