CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 9:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
USU 31.3%68.7% SDSU
Projected margin
SDSU by 7.6
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
USU 11 to SDSU 26
Win probability
SDSU 68.7%

Current team profiles

Utah State
San Diego State

When Utah State has the ball

Passing

SDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
USU offense
#133
SDSU defense
#113
EPA comparison
-0.10
#133
0.32
#113
Pass EPA

Rushing

SDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
USU offense
#122
SDSU defense
#56
EPA comparison
-0.05
#122
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

SDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
USU offense
#131
SDSU defense
#130
Success rates
35%
#131
48%
#130
Success rate
More metrics
-0.08
#132
0.15
#104
EPA / play
1.39
#8
1.08
#15
Explosiveness
19%
#130
12%
#128
Havoc

When San Diego State has the ball

Passing

USU defense
Higher-ranked profile
USU defense
#60
SDSU offense
#135
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
-0.14
#135
Pass EPA

Rushing

USU defense
Higher-ranked profile
USU defense
#40
SDSU offense
#126
EPA comparison
-0.02
#40
-0.08
#126
Rush EPA

Drive success

USU defense
Higher-ranked profile
USU defense
#60
SDSU offense
#135
Success rates
39%
#60
33%
#135
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#59
-0.12
#136
EPA / play
1.18
#46
1.12
#122
Explosiveness
14%
#101
16%
#98
Havoc

Current key players

Utah State
QBGrady Brosterhous
764 yds · 6 TD · 6 INT
49.1374/729
LBAsher Cunningham
34 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
88.8
Coverage
74.0
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
38
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
1
83.455/1796
WREli Wood
30 rec · 388 yds · 4 TD
80.552/2069
SBrevin Hamblin
42 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.2
Coverage
65.8
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
140
Passer rating allowed
71.5
Missed tackles
10
74.9198/2969
LBAdonis Jackson
14 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.2
Coverage
53.6
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
99
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
72.9263/1796
CBD'Angelo Mayes
23 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.3
Coverage
71.6
Targets allowed
30
Rec allowed
17
Yards allowed
226
Passer rating allowed
77.9
Missed tackles
2
70.2435/2969
Availability reports · 8
  • J. Nelson · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Nelson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Nikko Boncore · WRout · 2026-10-07

    Boncore is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Sesi Vailahi · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Vailahi is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will be available against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Nehemiah Washington · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Anthony Garcia · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Garcia is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Rex Haynes · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Haynes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Kache Kaio · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Kaio is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • McCae Hillstead · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Hillstead is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will be suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

San Diego State
QBStone Saunders
20 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
74.8116/729
CBMike Lindsay
13 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.5
Coverage
72.8
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
82
Passer rating allowed
32.4
Missed tackles
2
75.4182/2969
LBSione Hala
45 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.8
Coverage
61.4
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
26
Missed tackles
9
Forced fumbles
0
74.1211/1796
RBJavion Kinnard
312 yds · 1 TD · 5.6 YPC
72.7236/1044
WRDaishaun Davis
3 rec · 42 yds · 0 TD
72.3188/2069
TEJack Lua
1 rec · 10 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
73.6
Run blocking
75.7
Penalties
0
71.969/1017
Availability reports · 8
  • Nathan Acevedo · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Acevedo is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Lucky Sutton · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sutton is dealing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jackson Ford · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ford is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Donovan Brown · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brown is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Ryan Wolfer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Wolfer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Aldrich Doe · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Aldrich has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, Octob

  • Jack Ellis · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ellis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Parker Guiltinan · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Guiltinan is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

USU
SDSU
vs
Offense
49.1
#138 of 138
QB
74.8
#84 of 138
68.3
#127 of 138
RB
72.1
#105 of 138
67.2
#118 of 138
WR
71.5
#68 of 138
59.9
#123 of 138
TE
71.9
#51 of 138
62.6
#119 of 138
OL
70.8
#48 of 138
Defense
68.5
#120 of 138
DL
72.2
#84 of 138
76.3
#50 of 138
LB
69.0
#113 of 138
69.5
#104 of 138
DB
70.4
#90 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Utah State
opponent
San Diego State
A-1.8
ORST#44
-52.0A
A-19.0
BOIS#29
-10.2A
A-4.7
TXST#55
+2.0H
H+1.0
WSU#101
+7.4H
H-2.9
FRES#69
+2.0H
H+6.7
CSU#118
+6.3A