AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sun Nov 15 · 2:30 AM
#92Away
Utah State
0-0 · AVR 42.3
24p
#64Home
San Diego State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
32p
USU 28%72% SDSU
Spread
SDSU -8.4
Total
56
Moneyline
USU+252SDSU-252
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USU advantageevenSDSU advantage →
USU throw
USU protection #88SDSU coverage #24
SDSU +8
USU run
USU +8
SDSU throw
SDSU protection #34
SDSU +4
SDSU run
SDSU +33

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USU throws
Kahanu Davis
vs
Max Garrison
X · USU
CB1 · SDSU
53.2
89.5
SDSU +36
when SDSU runs
Lucky Sutton
vs
John Miller
RB · SDSU
MLB · USU
73.8
66.6
SDSU +7
when USU runs
Javen Jacobs
vs
Tano Letuli
RB · USU
MLB · SDSU
71.1
61.6
USU +9
off the edge· hunting Denegal
Kalan Ellis
vs
Tyree Morris
LT · SDSU
EDGE · USU
63.6
61.9
dead even
when SDSU throws
Bert Emanuel Jr.
vs
Chika Ebunoha
X · SDSU
CB1 · USU
51.4
71.6
USU +20
over the middle
Kache Kaio
vs
Kaimana Tufaga
TE · USU
FS · SDSU
51.4
68.2
SDSU +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Utah State
QBBryson Barnes
71.737/308
SChika Ebunoha
71.6199/1427
RBJaven Jacobs
71.147/514
LBJohn Miller
66.6192/878
SIke Larsen
66.6317/1427
LBBronson Olevao Jr.
65.1210/878
San Diego State
SMax Garrison
89.513/1427
SJalen Thomeson
76.7129/1427
SDalesean Staley
76.2136/1427
RBLucky Sutton
73.839/514
LBTano Letuli
61.6258/878
QBJayden Denegal
56.486/308

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Utah State
opponent
San Diego State
away-8.7
Texas State#59
+2.2home
away-9.0
Boise State#60
-3.1away
home+0.5
Fresno State#87
+6.4home
home+0.4
Washington State#85
+6.3home
away+5.2
Oregon State#122
+11.1away
home+10.9
Colorado State#129
+11.8away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSDSU +8.495% interval: -15.5 to 32.380% interval: -9 to 25.8-9+26USU wins 28%SDSU wins 72%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SDSU 32–25 USUSDSU 28–49 USU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSDSU 32–46 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSDSU 35–42 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSDSU 39–39 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSDSU 42–35 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 46–32 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 49–28 USU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSDSU 53–25 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 56–21 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 25–46 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 28–42 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 32–39 USU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSDSU 35–35 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSDSU 39–32 USU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSDSU 42–28 USU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSDSU 46–25 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSDSU 49–21 USU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSDSU 53–18 USU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 21–42 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 25–39 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSDSU 28–35 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSDSU 32–32 USU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSDSU 35–28 USU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSDSU 39–25 USU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSDSU 42–21 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 46–18 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSDSU 49–14 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSDSU 18–39 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 21–35 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSDSU 25–32 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSDSU 28–28 USU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSDSU 32–25 USU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSDSU 35–21 USU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSDSU 39–18 USU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSDSU 42–14 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSDSU 46–11 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSDSU 14–35 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 18–32 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSDSU 21–28 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSDSU 25–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSDSU 28–21 USU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSDSU 32–18 USU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSDSU 35–14 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 39–11 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSDSU 42–7 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSDSU 11–32 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 14–28 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 18–25 USU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSDSU 21–21 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSDSU 25–18 USU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSDSU 28–14 USU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSDSU 32–11 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSDSU 35–7 USU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSDSU 39–4 USU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 7–28 USU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSDSU 11–25 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSDSU 14–21 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSDSU 18–18 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSDSU 21–14 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 25–11 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 28–7 USU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSDSU 32–4 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 35–0 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSU +21USU +7SDSU +7SDSU +21SDSU +35margin →