AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 11:00 PM
#85Away
Washington State
0-0 · AVR 45.3
22p
#64Home
San Diego State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
29p
WSU 33%67% SDSU
Spread
SDSU -6.3
Total
51
Moneyline
WSU+199SDSU-199
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WSU advantageevenSDSU advantage →
WSU throw
SDSU coverage #24SDSU pass rush #96
SDSU +47
WSU run
WSU backs #73
SDSU +11
SDSU throw
SDSU protection #34
SDSU +7
SDSU run
SDSU +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Denegal
Kalan Ellis
vs
Paul Hutson III
LT · SDSU
EDGE · WSU
63.6
84.5
WSU +21
when SDSU runs
Lucky Sutton
vs
DJ Warner
RB · SDSU
MLB · WSU
73.8
69.6
SDSU +4
when WSU throws
Tony Freeman
vs
Max Garrison
X · WSU
CB1 · SDSU
50.2
89.5
SDSU +39
when WSU runs
Kirby Vorhees
vs
Tano Letuli
RB · WSU
MLB · SDSU
63.2
61.6
dead even
over the middle
Trey Leckner
vs
Kaimana Tufaga
TE · WSU
FS · SDSU
47.8
68.2
SDSU +20
when SDSU throws
Bert Emanuel Jr.
vs
Jack Bal
X · SDSU
CB1 · WSU
51.4
62.4
WSU +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Washington State
LBDJ Warner
69.6153/878
RBKirby Vorhees
63.283/514
SJack Bal
62.4420/1427
CBJalil Tucker
54.9627/1427
CBJamarey Smith
53.0678/1427
WRTony Freeman
50.2307/777

also out — T. Leckner (TE), Hudson Cedarland (TE), J. Dugger (QB)

San Diego State
SMax Garrison
89.513/1427
SJalen Thomeson
76.7129/1427
SDalesean Staley
76.2136/1427
RBLucky Sutton
73.839/514
LBTano Letuli
61.6258/878
QBJayden Denegal
56.486/308

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Washington State
opponent
San Diego State
away-0.4
Utah State#92
+8.4home
away-6.6
Texas State#59
+2.2home
home+2.6
Fresno State#87
+6.4home
away+7.3
Oregon State#122
+11.1away
home-1.9
Boise State#60
-3.1away
home+13.0
Colorado State#129
+11.8away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSDSU +6.395% interval: -17.6 to 30.280% interval: -11.1 to 23.7-11+24WSU wins 33%SDSU wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SDSU 28–21 WSUSDSU 25–46 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 28–42 WSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 32–39 WSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSDSU 35–35 WSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 39–32 WSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSDSU 42–28 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSDSU 46–25 WSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSDSU 49–21 WSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSDSU 53–18 WSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSDSU 21–42 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 25–39 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSDSU 28–35 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 32–32 WSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSDSU 35–28 WSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSDSU 39–25 WSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSDSU 42–21 WSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSDSU 46–18 WSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSDSU 49–14 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 18–39 WSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSDSU 21–35 WSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSDSU 25–32 WSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 28–28 WSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSDSU 32–25 WSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSDSU 35–21 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSDSU 39–18 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 42–14 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSDSU 46–11 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 14–35 WSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSDSU 18–32 WSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSDSU 21–28 WSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 25–25 WSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSDSU 28–21 WSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSDSU 32–18 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSDSU 35–14 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 39–11 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSDSU 42–7 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 11–32 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 14–28 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 18–25 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSDSU 21–21 WSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSDSU 25–18 WSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSDSU 28–14 WSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSDSU 32–11 WSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSDSU 35–7 WSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSDSU 39–4 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 7–28 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 11–25 WSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSDSU 14–21 WSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSDSU 18–18 WSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSDSU 21–14 WSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSDSU 25–11 WSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSDSU 28–7 WSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSDSU 32–4 WSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 35–0 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 4–25 WSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSDSU 7–21 WSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSDSU 11–18 WSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSDSU 14–14 WSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSDSU 18–11 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 21–7 WSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSDSU 25–4 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 28–0 WSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalWSU +21WSU +7SDSU +7SDSU +21SDSU +35margin →