CFB
Model
All rankings
Mid-American

Toledo

Rockets4-22nd in Mid-American
Glass Bowl · Toledo, OH · 26,038
TeamWell-rounded · outplaying the roster
OffenseBoom-or-bust · solid
DefenseStingy until it breaks · solid · stout against the runweak point: big plays allowed, 109th

The season

Best win
W 41-16 vs #104 San Diego State
Wk 4 · Sep 26 · model had 77%
Worst loss
L 8-23 vs #149 Buffalo
Wk 6 · Oct 10 · lost as a 98% favorite

Schedule

model 5/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 4
    atMichigan State
    L 20–30
    Win chance 48%Model margin -0.6Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsCentral Connecticut
    W 63–10
    Win chance >99%Model margin +39.0Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsTemple
    W 49–48
    Win chance 77%Model margin +9.9Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsSan Diego State
    W 41–16
    Win chance 77%Model margin +10.0Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    atBall State
    W 39–24
    Win chance 95%Model margin +22.1Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    vsBuffalo
    L 8–23
    Win chance 98%Model margin +26.9Game details
  7. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atEastern Michigan
    Win chance 79%Model margin +10.8Game details
  8. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsWestern Michigan
    Win chance 79%Model margin +10.7Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 4
    atSacramento State
    Win chance 92%Model margin +19.3Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 11
    vsMassachusetts
    Win chance 97%Model margin +25.2Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsBowling Green
    Win chance 91%Model margin +17.8Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 27
    atOhio
    Win chance 72%Model margin +7.7Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
71
#29 of 138
Defense efficiency
64
#46 of 138
Efficiency
#360.23
EPA / play
#430.01
#380.33
Pass
#790.17
#550.14
Rush
#34-0.04
#8143%
Success
#1034%
Big plays & havoc
#31.44
Explosive
#1091.32
#4514%
Havoc
#9714%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB28th
RB26th
WR33rd
TE77th
OL59th
DL60th
LB53rd
DB40th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Khamoni RobinsonJR
21 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
87.8
30th QB
RB
Autavius IsonJR
175 yds · 1 TD · 4.5 YPC
82.5
54th RB
WR
Adjatay DabbsJR
25 rec · 367 yds · 4 TD
84.1
25th WR
WR
Bryson HammerJR
16 rec · 318 yds · 2 TD
73.3
161st WR
TE
Ethan MalafaSR
— rec · — yds · — TD
68.5
121st TE
Defense
LB
Julian FoxJR
36 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
80.8
72nd LB
LB
Isaac ZaySO
37 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
74.3
205th LB
CB
Israel PetiteSO
23 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
80.9
53rd DB
S
Nicholas ThompsonJR
15 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
75.7
169th DB
S
Mo ContehSR
20 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
74.1
226th DB

Injury report

3 out
out
Kalvin Gilbert Jr.WR

Gilbert is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

60.510-10
out
Trenton JonesWR

Jones is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

55.110-10
out
Tucker KelleherTE

Kelleher is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

—10-10

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atEastern Michigan
    Playoff chance if win
    8.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    2.6%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsWestern Michigan
    Playoff chance if win
    8.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    2.5%
  3. Week 10 · Nov 4
    atSacramento State
    Playoff chance if win
    7.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    1.9%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 11
    vsMassachusetts
    Playoff chance if win
    7.4%
    Playoff chance if loss
    2.3%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsBowling Green
    Playoff chance if win
    7.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    2.1%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 27
    atOhio
    Playoff chance if win
    9.0%
    Playoff chance if loss
    3.1%

Past seasons

Year by year
+10.0 points since 2022
405060708057.9202264.6202355.2202467.92025
2022 57.92023 64.62024 55.22025 67.9

2025

8-4
D-I rank
#41
Rating
67.9
Listed games · 12
LWWLWLWLWWWW
379 pts scored146 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at KentuckyL 16–24
  2. W2 vs Western KentuckyW 45–21
  3. W3 vs Morgan StateW 60–0
  4. W4 at Western MichiganL 13–14
  5. W5 vs AkronW 45–3
  6. W7 at Bowling GreenL 23–28
  7. W8 vs Kent StateW 45–10
  8. W9 at Washington StateL 7–28
  9. W11 vs Northern IllinoisW 42–3
  10. W12 at Miami (OH)W 24–3
  11. W13 vs Ball StateW 38–9
  12. W14 at Central MichiganW 21–3

2024

7-5
D-I rank
#95
Rating
55.2
Listed games · 12
WWWLWLWLWWLL
320 pts scored256 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs DuquesneW 49–10
  2. W2 vs MassachusettsW 38–23
  3. W3 at Mississippi StateW 41–17
  4. W4 at Western KentuckyL 21–26
  5. W6 vs Miami (OH)W 30–20
  6. W7 at BuffaloL 15–30
  7. W8 at Northern IllinoisW 13–6
  8. W9 vs Bowling GreenL 26–41
  9. W10 at Eastern MichiganW 29–28
  10. W12 vs Central MichiganW 37–10
  11. W13 vs OhioL 7–24
  12. W14 at AkronL 14–21

2023

11-2
D-I rank
#48
Rating
64.6
Listed games · 13
LWWWWWWWWWWWL
437 pts scored268 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at IllinoisL 28–30
  2. W2 vs Texas SouthernW 71–3
  3. W3 vs San José StateW 21–17
  4. W4 vs Western MichiganW 49–31
  5. W5 vs Northern IllinoisW 35–33
  6. W6 at MassachusettsW 41–24
  7. W7 at Ball StateW 13–6
  8. W8 at Miami (OH)W 21–17
  9. W10 vs BuffaloW 31–13
  10. W11 vs Eastern MichiganW 49–23
  11. W12 at Bowling GreenW 32–31
  12. W13 at Central MichiganW 32–17
  13. W14 vs Miami (OH)L 14–23

2022

8-5
D-I rank
#80
Rating
57.9
Listed games · 13
WWLLWWWLWWLLW
417 pts scored332 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Long Island UniversityW 37–0
  2. W2 vs MassachusettsW 55–10
  3. W3 at Ohio StateL 21–77
  4. W4 at San Diego StateL 14–17
  5. W5 vs Central MichiganW 38–17
  6. W6 at Northern IllinoisW 52–32
  7. W7 vs Kent StateW 52–31
  8. W8 at BuffaloL 27–34
  9. W9 at Eastern MichiganW 27–24
  10. W11 vs Ball StateW 28–21
  11. W12 vs Bowling GreenL 35–42
  12. W13 at Western MichiganL 14–20
  13. W14 vs OhioW 17–7