CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 3:00 PM ET
#104Away
Temple
1-1 · AVR 54.2
48
Final
#59Home
Toledo
1-1 · AVR 62.4
49
Forecast win probability
TEM 26.7%73.3% TOL
Projected margin
TOL by 9.9
Projected total
51
80% outcome range
TEM 7 to TOL 28
Win probability
TOL 73.3%
FinalTEM 48 · TOL 49model had +9.9, off by 8.9

Current team profiles

Temple
Toledo

When Temple has the ball

Passing

TEM offense
Higher-ranked profile
TEM offense
#47
TOL defense
#79
EPA comparison
0.28
#47
0.17
#79
Pass EPA

Rushing

TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
TEM offense
#51
TOL defense
#34
EPA comparison
0.15
#51
-0.04
#34
Rush EPA

Drive success

TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
TEM offense
#77
TOL defense
#10
Success rates
43%
#77
34%
#10
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#48
0.01
#43
EPA / play
1.22
#80
1.32
#109
Explosiveness
11%
#20
14%
#97
Havoc

When Toledo has the ball

Passing

TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
TEM defense
#107
TOL offense
#38
EPA comparison
0.28
#107
0.33
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
TEM defense
#112
TOL offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.15
#112
0.14
#55
Rush EPA

Drive success

TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
TEM defense
#122
TOL offense
#81
Success rates
46%
#122
43%
#81
Success rate
More metrics
0.19
#119
0.23
#36
EPA / play
1.18
#51
1.44
#3
Explosiveness
10%
#137
14%
#45
Havoc

Current key players

Temple
QBAjani Sheppard
631 yds · 6 TD · 0 INT
78.583/729
LBTyree Alualu
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.3
Coverage
91.1
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
90.310/1796
LBJordan Montgomery
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
88.6
Coverage
64.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
88.418/1796
CBEarl Kulp
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
72.9
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
1
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
75.5175/2969
RBKeveun Mason
361 yds · 2 TD · 5.3 YPC
75.0178/1044
CBAdrian Laing
10 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
59.1
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
128
Passer rating allowed
78.0
Missed tackles
1
70.5413/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Coen Logan · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Logan is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against 49ers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Rameir Hardy · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hardy is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face 49ers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaxon Smolik · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Smolik is suffering with a foot injury, and it is undetermined if he will face 49ers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Reis Stocksdale · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stocksdale is dealing with a hamstring injury, and it is unclear if he will face 49ers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Samuel Brown V · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brown is suffering with a undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will face 49ers on Saturday, October 17th.

Toledo
QBKhamoni Robinson
21 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
87.830/729
WRAdjatay Dabbs
25 rec · 367 yds · 4 TD
84.125/2069
RBAutavius Ison
175 yds · 1 TD · 4.5 YPC
82.554/1044
CBIsrael Petite
23 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
80.5
Targets allowed
23
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
121
Passer rating allowed
74.7
Missed tackles
2
80.953/2969
LBJulian Fox
36 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.7
Coverage
82.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
1
80.872/1796
SNicholas Thompson
15 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.5
Coverage
72.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
-6
Passer rating allowed
116.7
Missed tackles
1
75.7169/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Kalvin Gilbert Jr. · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Gilbert is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Trenton Jones · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Jones is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Tucker Kelleher · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Kelleher is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

TEM
TOL
vs
Offense
78.5
#65 of 138
QB
87.8
#28 of 138
71.3
#109 of 138
RB
81.3
#26 of 138
64.7
#131 of 138
WR
75.2
#33 of 138
66.5
#84 of 138
TE
68.5
#77 of 138
67.6
#72 of 138
OL
69.2
#59 of 138
Defense
72.7
#75 of 138
DL
74.4
#60 of 138
84.8
#5 of 138
LB
75.7
#53 of 138
70.2
#93 of 138
DB
74.6
#40 of 138
Common opponents