AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:00 PM
#113Away
Temple
0-0 · AVR 34.9
23p
#73Home
Toledo
0-0 · AVR 47.9
33p
TEM 25%75% TOL
Spread
TOL -9.9
Total
55
Moneyline
TEM+296TOL-296
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TEM advantageevenTOL advantage →
TEM throw
TEM WR #46TEM protection #113
TOL +20
TEM run
TOL linebackers #35
TOL +29
TOL throw
TOL +18
TOL run
TOL +28

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TEM throws
JoJo Bermudez
vs
Hyajah Miller
X · TEM
CB1 · TOL
64.8
79.6
TOL +15
over the middle
Peter Clarke
vs
Andrew Fineske
TE · TEM
FS · TOL
65.5
69.7
TOL +4
when TEM runs
Hunter Smith
vs
Sam Smith Jr.
RB · TEM
MLB · TOL
55.8
79.0
TOL +23
when TOL throws
Tashi Braceful
vs
Adrian Laing
X · TOL
CB1 · TEM
52.1
72.1
TEM +20
when TOL runs
Dane Nauman
vs
Curly Ordonez
RB · TOL
MLB · TEM
49.8
61.6
TEM +12
off the edge· hunting DeHaan
Jonathan Harder
vs
Quante Gillians
LT · TOL
EDGE · TEM
57.7
50.2
TOL +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Temple
CBAdrian Laing
72.1188/1427
TEPeter Clarke
65.523/287
WRJoJo Bermudez
64.884/777
WRColin Chase
63.295/777
CBBryson Goodwin
61.7436/1427
LBCurly Ordonez
61.6260/878
Toledo
CBHyajah Miller
79.695/1427
LBSam Smith Jr.
79.065/878
SDylan Hohler
78.6105/1427
LBLangston Long
70.2142/878
STyler Hackenbracht
69.7246/1427
TESam Lee
52.4113/287

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTOL +9.995% interval: -14 to 33.880% interval: -7.5 to 27.2-7+27TEM wins 25%TOL wins 75%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TOL 32–25 TEMTOL 28–49 TEM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTOL 32–46 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 35–42 TEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTOL 39–39 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTOL 42–35 TEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTOL 46–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTOL 49–28 TEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 53–25 TEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTOL 56–21 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTOL 25–46 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 28–42 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 32–39 TEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTOL 35–35 TEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTOL 39–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTOL 42–28 TEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 46–25 TEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTOL 49–21 TEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTOL 53–18 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 21–42 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 25–39 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 28–35 TEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 32–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTOL 35–28 TEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTOL 39–25 TEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTOL 42–21 TEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 46–18 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 49–14 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 18–39 TEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 21–35 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTOL 25–32 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTOL 28–28 TEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTOL 32–25 TEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTOL 35–21 TEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTOL 39–18 TEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTOL 42–14 TEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 46–11 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 14–35 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 18–32 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 21–28 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTOL 25–25 TEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 28–21 TEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTOL 32–18 TEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTOL 35–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 39–11 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 42–7 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 11–32 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 14–28 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 18–25 TEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTOL 21–21 TEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTOL 25–18 TEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTOL 28–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTOL 32–11 TEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTOL 35–7 TEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTOL 39–4 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 7–28 TEM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTOL 11–25 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 14–21 TEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTOL 18–18 TEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTOL 21–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTOL 25–11 TEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTOL 28–7 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTOL 32–4 TEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTOL 35–0 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalTEM +21TEM +7TOL +7TOL +21TOL +35margin →