AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:30 AM
Battle of I-75 Trophy
#114Away
Bowling Green
0-0 · AVR 34.6
21p
#73Home
Toledo
0-0 · AVR 47.9
31p
BGSU 24%77% TOL
Spread
TOL -10.3
Total
52
Moneyline
BGSU+326TOL-326
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BGSU advantageevenTOL advantage →
BGSU throw
TOL coverage #27TOL pass rush #106
TOL +38
BGSU run
TOL linebackers #35
TOL +37
TOL throw
BGSU +28
TOL run
BGSU +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting DeHaan
Jonathan Harder
vs
Myles Bradley
LT · TOL
EDGE · BGSU
57.7
95.5
BGSU +38
when BGSU runs
Austyn Dendy
vs
Sam Smith Jr.
RB · BGSU
MLB · TOL
52.8
79.0
TOL +26
when TOL throws
Tashi Braceful
vs
JoJo Johnson
X · TOL
CB1 · BGSU
52.1
79.7
BGSU +28
when TOL runs
Dane Nauman
vs
Dorian Pringle
RB · TOL
MLB · BGSU
49.8
69.1
BGSU +19
when BGSU throws
Brennan Ridley
vs
Hyajah Miller
X · BGSU
CB1 · TOL
38.4
79.6
TOL +41
over the middle
Sam Lee
vs
Armhan Hale
TE · TOL
FS · BGSU
52.4
62.8
BGSU +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Bowling Green
CBJoJo Johnson
79.791/1427
LBDorian Pringle
69.1161/878
DBJayT Jackson
69.1259/1427
SKal-El Pascal
65.6342/1427
LBAndrew Hines III
64.8216/878
QBAustin Novosad
53.1119/308
Toledo
CBHyajah Miller
79.695/1427
LBSam Smith Jr.
79.065/878
SDylan Hohler
78.6105/1427
LBLangston Long
70.2142/878
STyler Hackenbracht
69.7246/1427
TESam Lee
52.4113/287

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Bowling Green
opponent
Toledo
away-0.5
Buffalo#116
+12.3home
away-9.4
Western Michigan#84
+3.4home
home+22.3
Massachusetts#138
+30.1home
home+10.8
Ball State#136
+13.6away
home-3.8
Sacramento State#111
-1.1away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTOL +10.395% interval: -13.6 to 34.280% interval: -7.1 to 27.7-7+28BGSU wins 24%TOL wins 77%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TOL 28–21 BGSUTOL 25–46 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 28–42 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 32–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTOL 35–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTOL 39–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 42–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 46–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTOL 49–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTOL 53–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 21–42 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 25–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 28–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 32–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 35–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTOL 39–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTOL 42–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTOL 46–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 49–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 18–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 21–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 25–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTOL 28–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 32–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTOL 35–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTOL 39–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 42–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 46–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 14–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 18–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 21–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTOL 25–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 28–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTOL 32–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTOL 35–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 39–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 42–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 11–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 14–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 18–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 21–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 25–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTOL 28–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTOL 32–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 35–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 39–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 7–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 11–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 14–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTOL 18–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTOL 21–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTOL 25–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTOL 28–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTOL 32–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTOL 35–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 4–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTOL 7–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTOL 11–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTOL 14–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 18–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTOL 21–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTOL 25–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 28–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalBGSU +21BGSU +7TOL +7TOL +21TOL +35margin →