Passing
TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU offense
- #87
- TOL defense
- #79
EPA comparison
0.15
#87
0.17
#79
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 12 · Fri Nov 20 · 7:30 PM ET
Battle of I-75 Trophy
Forecast win probability
BGSU 13.1%86.9% TOL
- Projected margin
- TOL by 17.8
- Projected total
- 54
- 80% outcome range
- BGSU 1 to TOL 36
- Win probability
- TOL 86.9%
Current team profiles
Bowling GreenToledoWhen Bowling Green has the ball
Rushing
TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU offense
- #136
- TOL defense
- #34
EPA comparison
-0.12
#136
-0.04
#34
Rush EPA
Drive success
TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU offense
- #123
- TOL defense
- #10
Success rates
38%
#123
34%
#10
Success rate
More metrics
-0.03
#126
0.01
#43
EPA / play
1.05
#134
1.32
#109
Explosiveness
17%
#109
14%
#97
Havoc
When Toledo has the ball
Passing
TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU defense
- #75
- TOL offense
- #38
EPA comparison
0.16
#75
0.33
#38
Pass EPA
Rushing
TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU defense
- #121
- TOL offense
- #55
EPA comparison
0.18
#121
0.14
#55
Rush EPA
Drive success
TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU defense
- #117
- TOL offense
- #81
Success rates
46%
#117
43%
#81
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#95
0.23
#36
EPA / play
1.24
#82
1.44
#3
Explosiveness
14%
#107
14%
#45
Havoc
Current key players
Bowling GreenQBAustin Novosad
-1 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
61.2259/729
FBLeo Kemp
30 yds · 1 TD · 6.0 YPC
85.236/1044
WRWinn Sharp
15 rec · 217 yds · 1 TD
72.4184/2069
TETrent Taylor
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
- Run blocking
- 68.4
- Penalties
- 0
69.899/1017
SKal-El Pascal
38 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.4
- Coverage
- 69.3
- Targets allowed
- 8
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 67
- Passer rating allowed
- 99.5
- Missed tackles
- 5
69.7463/2969
LBCashmire Lewis
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 67.9
- Coverage
- 61.5
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 7
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
68.9416/1796
Availability reports · 3
- Austin Clay · WRout · 2026-09-26
Clay is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Isaiah Dawson · WRout · 2026-10-10
Dawson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Ke'Marion Baldwin · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Baldwin is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Ball State on Saturday, October 17th.
ToledoQBKhamoni Robinson
21 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
87.830/729
WRAdjatay Dabbs
25 rec · 367 yds · 4 TD
84.125/2069
RBAutavius Ison
175 yds · 1 TD · 4.5 YPC
82.554/1044
CBIsrael Petite
23 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.7
- Coverage
- 80.5
- Targets allowed
- 23
- Rec allowed
- 14
- Yards allowed
- 121
- Passer rating allowed
- 74.7
- Missed tackles
- 2
80.953/2969
LBJulian Fox
36 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.7
- Coverage
- 82.7
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 8
- Missed tackles
- 4
- Forced fumbles
- 1
80.872/1796
SNicholas Thompson
15 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.5
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- -6
- Passer rating allowed
- 116.7
- Missed tackles
- 1
75.7169/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Kalvin Gilbert Jr. · WRout · 2026-10-10
Gilbert is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Trenton Jones · WRout · 2026-10-10
Jones is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Tucker Kelleher · TEout · 2026-10-10
Kelleher is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
BGSUBowling Green
TOLToledo
vs
Offense
61.2
#128 of 138
QB
Quarterback
87.8
#28 of 138
76.8
#56 of 138
RB
Running backs
81.3
#26 of 138
64.1
#134 of 138
WR
Receivers
75.2
#33 of 138
69.8
#66 of 138
TE
Tight ends
68.5
#77 of 138
60.3
#130 of 138
OL
Offensive line
69.2
#59 of 138
Defense
68.9
#117 of 138
DL
Defensive line
74.4
#60 of 138
62.2
#138 of 138
LB
Linebackers
75.7
#53 of 138
67.0
#125 of 138
DB
Secondary
74.6
#40 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Bowling Green
opponent
Toledo
Aaway-9.7
WMUWestern Michigan#79+10.7Hhome
Hhome+10.1
MASSMassachusetts#134+25.2Hhome
Aaway-2.8
BUFBuffalo#149-15.0Hhome
Hhome+5.4
BALLBall State#164+15.0Aaway
Hhome+28.0
SACSacramento State#187+19.3Aaway