AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 5:00 AM
#73Away
Toledo
0-0 · AVR 47.9
28p
#101Home
Ohio
0-0 · AVR 39.2
27p
TOL 55%45% OHIO
Spread
TOL -1.6
Total
55
Moneyline
TOL-122OHIO+122
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TOL advantageevenOHIO advantage →
TOL throw
TOL +7
TOL run
TOL +12
OHIO throw
TOL coverage #27TOL pass rush #106
TOL +34
OHIO run
TOL linebackers #35
OHIO +8

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OHIO runs
Duncan Brune
vs
Sam Smith Jr.
RB · OHIO
MLB · TOL
63.3
79.0
TOL +16
when OHIO throws
Dom Dorwart
vs
Hyajah Miller
X · OHIO
CB1 · TOL
48.0
79.6
TOL +32
off the edge· hunting DeHaan
Jonathan Harder
vs
Evan Herrmann
LT · TOL
EDGE · OHIO
57.7
60.3
dead even
when TOL throws
Tashi Braceful
vs
DJ Morton
X · TOL
CB1 · OHIO
52.1
62.9
OHIO +11
when TOL runs
Dane Nauman
vs
Michael Molnar
RB · TOL
MLB · OHIO
49.8
56.6
OHIO +7
over the middle
Sam Lee
vs
Andrew Vera
TE · TOL
FS · OHIO
52.4
49.9
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Toledo
CBHyajah Miller
79.695/1427
LBSam Smith Jr.
79.065/878
SDylan Hohler
78.6105/1427
LBLangston Long
70.2142/878
STyler Hackenbracht
69.7246/1427
TESam Lee
52.4113/287
Ohio
RBDuncan Brune
63.382/514
SDJ Morton
62.9408/1427
SDJ Walker
61.2453/1427
CBKendall Bannister
59.8489/1427
LBMichael Molnar
56.6361/878
RBVictor Rosa
56.0155/514

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Toledo
opponent
Ohio
away-1.1
Sacramento State#111
-5.1away
away+4.3
Eastern Michigan#112
+5.3home
away+13.6
Ball State#136
+14.5home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTOL +1.695% interval: -26.2 to 2380% interval: -19.5 to 16.3-19+16TOL wins 55%OHIO wins 45%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OHIO 28–28 TOLOHIO 25–53 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 28–49 TOL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOHIO 32–46 TOL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOHIO 35–42 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 39–39 TOL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 42–35 TOL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOHIO 46–32 TOL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOHIO 49–28 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 53–25 TOL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOHIO 21–49 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 25–46 TOL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 28–42 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 32–39 TOL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOHIO 35–35 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOHIO 39–32 TOL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOHIO 42–28 TOL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOHIO 46–25 TOL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOHIO 49–21 TOL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOHIO 18–46 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 21–42 TOL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOHIO 25–39 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOHIO 28–35 TOL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOHIO 32–32 TOL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOHIO 35–28 TOL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOHIO 39–25 TOL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOHIO 42–21 TOL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOHIO 46–18 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 14–42 TOL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOHIO 18–39 TOL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOHIO 21–35 TOL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOHIO 25–32 TOL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOHIO 28–28 TOL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOHIO 32–25 TOL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOHIO 35–21 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 39–18 TOL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOHIO 42–14 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 11–39 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 14–35 TOL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOHIO 18–32 TOL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOHIO 21–28 TOL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOHIO 25–25 TOL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOHIO 28–21 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOHIO 32–18 TOL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOHIO 35–14 TOL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOHIO 39–11 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 7–35 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 11–32 TOL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOHIO 14–28 TOL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOHIO 18–25 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOHIO 21–21 TOL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOHIO 25–18 TOL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOHIO 28–14 TOL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOHIO 32–11 TOL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOHIO 35–7 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 4–32 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 7–28 TOL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOHIO 11–25 TOL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOHIO 14–21 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOHIO 18–18 TOL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOHIO 21–14 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 25–11 TOL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOHIO 28–7 TOL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOHIO 32–4 TOL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalTOL +28TOL +14PKOHIO +14OHIO +28margin →