CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 12:00 PM ET
#80Away
Toledo
4-2 · AVR 57.9
31p
#107Home
Ohio
4-2 · AVR 52.9
24p
Forecast win probability
TOL 68.2%31.8% OHIO
Projected margin
TOL by 7.7
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
TOL 26 to OHIO 11
Win probability
TOL 68.2%

Current team profiles

Toledo
Ohio

When Toledo has the ball

Passing

TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
TOL offense
#38
OHIO defense
#116
EPA comparison
0.33
#38
0.33
#116
Pass EPA

Rushing

TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
TOL offense
#55
OHIO defense
#88
EPA comparison
0.14
#55
0.08
#88
Rush EPA

Drive success

TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
TOL offense
#81
OHIO defense
#88
Success rates
43%
#81
42%
#88
Success rate
More metrics
0.23
#36
0.15
#106
EPA / play
1.44
#3
1.27
#93
Explosiveness
14%
#45
16%
#70
Havoc

When Ohio has the ball

Passing

TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
TOL defense
#79
OHIO offense
#92
EPA comparison
0.17
#79
0.13
#92
Pass EPA

Rushing

TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
TOL defense
#34
OHIO offense
#45
EPA comparison
-0.04
#34
0.16
#45
Rush EPA

Drive success

TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
TOL defense
#10
OHIO offense
#46
Success rates
34%
#10
46%
#46
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#43
0.15
#69
EPA / play
1.32
#109
1.11
#124
Explosiveness
14%
#97
14%
#56
Havoc

Current key players

Toledo
QBKhamoni Robinson
21 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
87.830/729
WRAdjatay Dabbs
25 rec · 367 yds · 4 TD
84.125/2069
RBAutavius Ison
175 yds · 1 TD · 4.5 YPC
82.554/1044
CBIsrael Petite
23 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
80.5
Targets allowed
23
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
121
Passer rating allowed
74.7
Missed tackles
2
80.953/2969
LBJulian Fox
36 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.7
Coverage
82.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
1
80.872/1796
SNicholas Thompson
15 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.5
Coverage
72.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
-6
Passer rating allowed
116.7
Missed tackles
1
75.7169/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Kalvin Gilbert Jr. · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Gilbert is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Trenton Jones · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Jones is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Tucker Kelleher · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Kelleher is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

Ohio
QBLevi Davis
171 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
81.961/729
LBAlex Brown
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.9
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.051/1796
LBMichael Molnar
45 tkl · 5.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.3
Coverage
73.0
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
31
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
1
82.858/1796
WRRiley Neer
23 rec · 337 yds · 4 TD
76.698/2069
WRZach Hackleman
1 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
74.0149/2069
DBDarren James-Hamilton
15 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
44.9
Coverage
82.9
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
8
72.5306/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Rashad Perry · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Perry is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Hype Grand · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Grand is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against the Hornets on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

TOL
OHIO
vs
Offense
87.8
#28 of 138
QB
81.9
#52 of 138
81.3
#26 of 138
RB
67.8
#130 of 138
75.2
#33 of 138
WR
70.3
#77 of 138
68.5
#77 of 138
TE
60.0
#122 of 138
69.2
#59 of 138
OL
67.7
#69 of 138
Defense
74.4
#60 of 138
DL
70.5
#98 of 138
75.7
#53 of 138
LB
80.7
#17 of 138
74.6
#40 of 138
DB
66.7
#130 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Toledo
opponent
Ohio
A+19.3
SAC#187
+8.9A
A+10.8
EMU#131
+5.8H
A+15.0
BALL#164
+10.2H