Passing
TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BUF offense
- #118
- TOL defense
- #79
EPA comparison
0.05
#118
0.17
#79
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
BUF 4.1%95.9% TOL
- Projected margin
- TOL by 26.9
- Projected total
- 56
- 80% outcome range
- TOL 7 to TOL 47
- Win probability
- TOL 95.9%
FinalBUF 23 · TOL 8model had +26.9, off by 41.9
Current team profiles
BuffaloToledoWhen Buffalo has the ball
Rushing
TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BUF offense
- #105
- TOL defense
- #34
EPA comparison
0.02
#105
-0.04
#34
Rush EPA
Drive success
TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BUF offense
- #130
- TOL defense
- #10
Success rates
35%
#130
34%
#10
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#114
0.01
#43
EPA / play
1.19
#93
1.32
#109
Explosiveness
16%
#94
14%
#97
Havoc
When Toledo has the ball
Passing
TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BUF defense
- #96
- TOL offense
- #38
EPA comparison
0.24
#96
0.33
#38
Pass EPA
Rushing
TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BUF defense
- #56
- TOL offense
- #55
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.14
#55
Rush EPA
Drive success
BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BUF defense
- #48
- TOL offense
- #81
Success rates
38%
#48
43%
#81
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#91
0.23
#36
EPA / play
1.29
#98
1.44
#3
Explosiveness
15%
#81
14%
#45
Havoc
Current key players
BuffaloQBElijah Holmes
253 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
78.980/729
TEMichael Gelatko
1 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 64.6
- Run blocking
- 59.6
- Penalties
- 0
88.66/1017
LBZach Bergmann
23 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 85.0
- Coverage
- 75.2
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 11
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
79.886/1796
WRChance Morrow
32 rec · 400 yds · 6 TD
77.087/2069
RBMessiah Burch
352 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0151/1044
LBStevie Bracey
19 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.5
- Coverage
- 58.4
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
73.9217/1796
Availability reports · 9
- Elijah Holmes · QBout · 2026-10-06
Holmes is battling with a knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Jasaiah Gathings · WRout · 2026-10-10
Gathings is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- Bobby Mays · WRout · 2026-10-10
Mays is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.
- Terrell Richards · WRout · 2026-10-10
Richards is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- James McNeil Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
McNeil Jr is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Terrance Shelton Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Shelton Jr. is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Alvin Jones III · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Jones is nursing a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Blake Sholder · KQues. · 2026-10-10
Sholder is nursing a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jeremiah Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
ToledoQBKhamoni Robinson
21 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
87.830/729
WRAdjatay Dabbs
25 rec · 367 yds · 4 TD
84.125/2069
RBAutavius Ison
175 yds · 1 TD · 4.5 YPC
82.554/1044
CBIsrael Petite
23 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.7
- Coverage
- 80.5
- Targets allowed
- 23
- Rec allowed
- 14
- Yards allowed
- 121
- Passer rating allowed
- 74.7
- Missed tackles
- 2
80.953/2969
LBJulian Fox
36 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.7
- Coverage
- 82.7
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 8
- Missed tackles
- 4
- Forced fumbles
- 1
80.872/1796
SNicholas Thompson
15 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.5
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- -6
- Passer rating allowed
- 116.7
- Missed tackles
- 1
75.7169/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Kalvin Gilbert Jr. · WRout · 2026-10-10
Gilbert is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Trenton Jones · WRout · 2026-10-10
Jones is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Tucker Kelleher · TEout · 2026-10-10
Kelleher is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
BUFBuffalo
TOLToledo
vs
Offense
78.9
#62 of 138
QB
Quarterback
87.8
#28 of 138
74.5
#76 of 138
RB
Running backs
81.3
#26 of 138
65.1
#129 of 138
WR
Receivers
75.2
#33 of 138
88.6
#6 of 138
TE
Tight ends
68.5
#77 of 138
63.5
#110 of 138
OL
Offensive line
69.2
#59 of 138
Defense
76.3
#43 of 138
DL
Defensive line
74.4
#60 of 138
75.7
#54 of 138
LB
Linebackers
75.7
#53 of 138
64.7
#135 of 138
DB
Secondary
74.6
#40 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Buffalo
opponent
Toledo
Hhome+10.2
MASSMassachusetts#134+25.2Hhome
Hhome+2.8
BGSUBowling Green#144+17.8Hhome
Aaway+0.2
BALLBall State#164+15.0Aaway
Hhome-3.0
WMUWestern Michigan#79+10.7Hhome