AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#116Away
Buffalo
0-0 · AVR 33.9
20p
#73Home
Toledo
0-0 · AVR 47.9
32p
BUF 21%79% TOL
Spread
TOL -12.3
Total
53
Moneyline
BUF+386TOL-386
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BUF advantageevenTOL advantage →
BUF throw
BUF protection #76TOL coverage #27
TOL +47
BUF run
TOL linebackers #35
TOL +29
TOL throw
BUF pass rush #123
BUF +5
TOL run
BUF front #123BUF linebackers #14
BUF +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TOL throws
Tashi Braceful
vs
Miles Greer
X · TOL
CB1 · BUF
52.1
76.3
BUF +24
when TOL runs
Dane Nauman
vs
SaVeon Brown
RB · TOL
MLB · BUF
49.8
78.1
BUF +28
when BUF runs
Terrance Shelton Jr.
vs
Sam Smith Jr.
RB · BUF
MLB · TOL
46.0
79.0
TOL +33
off the edge· hunting DeHaan
Jonathan Harder
vs
Jacari Bennett
LT · TOL
EDGE · BUF
57.7
62.0
BUF +4
when BUF throws
Chance Morrow
vs
Hyajah Miller
X · BUF
CB1 · TOL
35.9
79.6
TOL +44
over the middle
Sam Lee
vs
Oliver Bridges
TE · TOL
FS · BUF
52.4
57.6
BUF +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Buffalo
LBSaVeon Brown
78.179/878
SMiles Greer
76.3135/1427
CBKobi Blackwell
73.2174/1427
SXavier Leonard
66.6320/1427
CBOliver Bridges
57.6542/1427
CBMikey Crawford
55.6602/1427
Toledo
CBHyajah Miller
79.695/1427
LBSam Smith Jr.
79.065/878
SDylan Hohler
78.6105/1427
LBLangston Long
70.2142/878
STyler Hackenbracht
69.7246/1427
TESam Lee
52.4113/287

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Buffalo
opponent
Toledo
home-6.4
Western Michigan#84
+3.4home
home+20.3
Massachusetts#138
+30.1home
home+0.5
Bowling Green#114
+10.3home
away+3.8
Ball State#136
+13.6away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTOL +12.395% interval: -11.6 to 36.280% interval: -5.1 to 29.7-5+30BUF wins 21%TOL wins 79%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TOL 35–21 BUFTOL 32–46 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 35–42 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 39–39 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTOL 42–35 BUF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTOL 46–32 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTOL 49–28 BUF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 53–25 BUF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTOL 56–21 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 60–18 BUF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTOL 28–42 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTOL 32–39 BUF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTOL 35–35 BUF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTOL 39–32 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 42–28 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTOL 46–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTOL 49–21 BUF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTOL 53–18 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 56–14 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 25–39 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 28–35 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTOL 32–32 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTOL 35–28 BUF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTOL 39–25 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTOL 42–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 46–18 BUF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTOL 49–14 BUF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTOL 53–11 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 21–35 BUF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 25–32 BUF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTOL 28–28 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 32–25 BUF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTOL 35–21 BUF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTOL 39–18 BUF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTOL 42–14 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTOL 46–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTOL 49–7 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 18–32 BUF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 21–28 BUF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTOL 25–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 28–21 BUF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTOL 32–18 BUF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTOL 35–14 BUF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTOL 39–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTOL 42–7 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTOL 46–4 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 14–28 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 18–25 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTOL 21–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTOL 25–18 BUF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTOL 28–14 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTOL 32–11 BUF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 35–7 BUF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTOL 39–4 BUF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTOL 42–0 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 11–25 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTOL 14–21 BUF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTOL 18–18 BUF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTOL 21–14 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 25–11 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTOL 28–7 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTOL 32–4 BUF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTOL 35–0 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalBUF +14PKTOL +14TOL +28TOL +42margin →