CFB
Model
All rankings
Mid-American

Buffalo

Bulls3-310th in Mid-American
UB Stadium · Amherst, NY · 30,270
TeamCarried by the defense
OffensePoor attackweak point: staying on schedule, 130th
DefenseStingy until it breaks · weak · stout against the runweak point: big plays allowed, 98th

The season

Best win
W 23-8 @ #80 Toledo
Wk 6 · Oct 10 · won as a 2% underdog
Worst loss
L 20-33 @ #99 Florida International
Wk 2 · Sep 12 · model had 10%

Schedule

model 5/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 3
    vsUAlbany
    W 21–17
    Win chance 97%Model margin +26.1Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    atFlorida International
    L 20–33
    Win chance 10%Model margin -17.1Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    atPenn State
    L 13–55
    Win chance <1%Model margin -38.8Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsRobert Morris
    W 31–28
    Win chance 94%Model margin +21.4Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsWestern Michigan
    L 17–20
    Win chance 5%Model margin -22.1Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    atToledo
    W 23–8
    Win chance 2%Model margin -26.9Game details
  7. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsMassachusetts
    Win chance 78%Model margin +10.2Game details
  8. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsBowling Green
    Win chance 58%Model margin +2.8Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 4
    atMiami (OH)
    Win chance 26%Model margin -8.7Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 11
    atBall State
    Win chance 51%Model margin +0.2Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 18
    vsCentral Michigan
    Win chance 45%Model margin -1.6Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 27
    atAkron
    Win chance 53%Model margin +1.0Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
19
#125 of 138
Defense efficiency
47
#70 of 138
Efficiency
#1140.03
EPA / play
#910.11
#1180.05
Pass
#960.24
#1050.02
Rush
#560.02
#13035%
Success
#4838%
Big plays & havoc
#931.19
Explosive
#981.29
#9416%
Havoc
#8115%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB62nd
RB76th
WR129th
TE6th
OL110th
DL43rd
LB54th
DB135th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Elijah HolmesSR
253 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
78.9
80th QB
RB
Messiah BurchSR
352 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0
151st RB
WR
Chance MorrowSR
32 rec · 400 yds · 6 TD
77.0
87th WR
WR
Jaylen AndrewsJR
10 rec · 77 yds · 0 TD
59.3
837th WR
TE
Michael GelatkoSO
1 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
88.6
6th TE
Defense
LB
Zach BergmannSR
23 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
79.8
86th LB
LB
Stevie BraceySR
19 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
73.9
217th LB
S
Xavier LeonardJR
6 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
67.8
621st DB
CB
Keontez BradleySR
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
65.0
859th DB
CB
Kobi BlackwellJR
14 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
64.9
871st DB

Injury report

4 out
out
Elijah HolmesQB

Holmes is battling with a knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

78.910-06
out
Jasaiah GathingsWR

Gathings is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

54.810-10
out
Bobby MaysWR

Mays is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

—10-10
out
Terrell RichardsWR

Richards is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

60.0202510-10
Ques.
James McNeil Jr.RB

McNeil Jr is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

73.010-10
Ques.
Terrance Shelton Jr.RB

Shelton Jr. is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

69.110-10
Ques.
Alvin Jones IIIWR

Jones is nursing a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

—10-10
Ques.
Blake SholderK

Sholder is nursing a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

—10-10
Ques.
Jeremiah WatkinsWR

Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

60.7202510-10

Past seasons

Year by year
+0.2 points since 2022
304050607050.4202248.3202347.8202450.52025
2022 50.42023 48.32024 47.82025 50.5

2025

5-7
D-I rank
#109
Rating
50.5
Listed games · 12
LWWLLWWLWLLL
288 pts scored282 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at MinnesotaL 10–23
  2. W2 vs Saint FrancisW 45–6
  3. W3 at Kent StateW 31–28
  4. W4 vs TroyL 17–21
  5. W5 vs UConnL 17–20
  6. W6 vs Eastern MichiganW 31–30
  7. W8 at MassachusettsW 28–21
  8. W9 vs AkronL 16–24
  9. W10 at Bowling GreenW 28–3
  10. W12 at Central MichiganL 19–38
  11. W13 vs Miami (OH)L 20–37
  12. W14 vs OhioL 26–31

2024

8-4
D-I rank
#129
Rating
47.8
Listed games · 12
WLWWLWLLWWWW
349 pts scored336 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs LafayetteW 30–13
  2. W2 at MissouriL 0–38
  3. W3 vs MassachusettsW 34–3
  4. W4 at Northern IllinoisW 23–20
  5. W5 at UConnL 3–47
  6. W7 vs ToledoW 30–15
  7. W8 vs Western MichiganL 41–48
  8. W9 at OhioL 16–47
  9. W10 at AkronW 41–30
  10. W12 vs Ball StateW 51–48
  11. W13 at Eastern MichiganW 37–20
  12. W14 vs Kent StateW 43–7

2023

3-9
D-I rank
#134
Rating
48.3
Listed games · 12
LLLLWWLWLLLL
251 pts scored329 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at WisconsinL 17–38
  2. W2 vs FordhamL 37–40
  3. W3 vs LibertyL 27–55
  4. W4 at LouisianaL 38–45
  5. W5 at AkronW 13–10
  6. W6 vs Central MichiganW 37–13
  7. W7 vs Bowling GreenL 14–24
  8. W8 at Kent StateW 24–6
  9. W10 at ToledoL 13–31
  10. W11 vs OhioL 10–20
  11. W12 at Miami (OH)L 10–23
  12. W13 vs Eastern MichiganL 11–24

2022

6-6
D-I rank
#125
Rating
50.4
Listed games · 12
LLLWWWWWLLLW
348 pts scored326 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at MarylandL 10–31
  2. W2 vs Holy CrossL 31–37
  3. W3 at Coastal CarolinaL 26–38
  4. W4 at Eastern MichiganW 50–31
  5. W5 vs Miami (OH)W 24–20
  6. W6 at Bowling GreenW 38–7
  7. W7 at MassachusettsW 34–7
  8. W8 vs ToledoW 34–27
  9. W10 at OhioL 24–45
  10. W11 at Central MichiganL 27–31
  11. W13 vs Kent StateL 27–30
  12. W14 vs AkronW 23–22