AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 10:00 PM
#116Away
Buffalo
0-0 · AVR 33.9
24p
#109Home
Florida International
0-0 · AVR 36.2
29p
BUF 36%64% FIU
Spread
FIU -5.4
Total
53
Moneyline
BUF+180FIU-180
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BUF advantageevenFIU advantage →
BUF throw
BUF protection #76
FIU +44
BUF run
FIU +29
FIU throw
FIU protection #99BUF pass rush #123
even
FIU run
BUF front #123BUF linebackers #14
BUF +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FIU runs
Anthony Carrie
vs
SaVeon Brown
RB · FIU
MLB · BUF
57.2
78.1
BUF +21
when FIU throws
Maguire Anderson
vs
Miles Greer
X · FIU
CB1 · BUF
51.3
76.3
BUF +25
when BUF throws
Chance Morrow
vs
Shamir Sterlin
X · BUF
CB1 · FIU
35.9
81.3
FIU +45
when BUF runs
Terrance Shelton Jr.
vs
Brayshawn Littlejohn
RB · BUF
MLB · FIU
46.0
70.1
FIU +24
off the edge· hunting Wright
Gabriel Arena
vs
Dante Anderson
LT · BUF
EDGE · FIU
40.5
74.1
FIU +34
over the middle
Jackson Verdugo
vs
Oliver Bridges
TE · FIU
FS · BUF
47.0
57.6
BUF +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Buffalo
LBSaVeon Brown
78.179/878
SMiles Greer
76.3135/1427
CBKobi Blackwell
73.2174/1427
SXavier Leonard
66.6320/1427
CBOliver Bridges
57.6542/1427
CBMikey Crawford
55.6602/1427
Florida International
DBShamir Sterlin
81.379/1427
DBJai-Ayviauynn Celestine
70.2233/1427
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn
70.1144/878
QBJJ Kohl
68.047/308
DBLawrence Johnson
61.5445/1427
RBAnthony Carrie
57.2136/514

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFIU +5.495% interval: -18.5 to 29.380% interval: -12 to 22.8-12+23BUF wins 36%FIU wins 64%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FIU 32–25 BUFFIU 28–49 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 32–46 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFIU 35–42 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFIU 39–39 BUF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFIU 42–35 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 46–32 BUF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFIU 49–28 BUF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFIU 53–25 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFIU 56–21 BUF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesFIU 25–46 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 28–42 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFIU 32–39 BUF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFIU 35–35 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFIU 39–32 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFIU 42–28 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFIU 46–25 BUF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFIU 49–21 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFIU 53–18 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFIU 21–42 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFIU 25–39 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFIU 28–35 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFIU 32–32 BUF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFIU 35–28 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFIU 39–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFIU 42–21 BUF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFIU 46–18 BUF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 49–14 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 18–39 BUF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFIU 21–35 BUF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFIU 25–32 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFIU 28–28 BUF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFIU 32–25 BUF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFIU 35–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFIU 39–18 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 42–14 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFIU 46–11 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 14–35 BUF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFIU 18–32 BUF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFIU 21–28 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFIU 25–25 BUF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFIU 28–21 BUF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFIU 32–18 BUF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFIU 35–14 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFIU 39–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFIU 42–7 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 11–32 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFIU 14–28 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFIU 18–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFIU 21–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFIU 25–18 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFIU 28–14 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFIU 32–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFIU 35–7 BUF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFIU 39–4 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFIU 7–28 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFIU 11–25 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFIU 14–21 BUF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFIU 18–18 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFIU 21–14 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFIU 25–11 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFIU 28–7 BUF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFIU 32–4 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFIU 35–0 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalBUF +21BUF +7FIU +7FIU +21FIU +35margin →