CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 6:00 PM ET
#150Away
Buffalo
1-0 · AVR 45.7
20
Final
#97Home
Florida International
0-1 · AVR 54.0
33
Forecast win probability
BUF 12.4%87.6% FIU
Projected margin
FIU by 17.1
Projected total
46
80% outcome range
BUF 3 to FIU 35
Win probability
FIU 87.6%
FinalBUF 20 · FIU 33model had +17.1, off by 4.1

Current team profiles

Buffalo
Florida International

When Buffalo has the ball

Passing

FIU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF offense
#118
FIU defense
#14
EPA comparison
0.05
#118
-0.05
#14
Pass EPA

Rushing

FIU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF offense
#105
FIU defense
#29
EPA comparison
0.02
#105
-0.06
#29
Rush EPA

Drive success

FIU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF offense
#130
FIU defense
#11
Success rates
35%
#130
34%
#11
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#114
-0.07
#14
EPA / play
1.19
#93
1.14
#28
Explosiveness
16%
#94
18%
#31
Havoc

When Florida International has the ball

Passing

BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF defense
#96
FIU offense
#107
EPA comparison
0.24
#96
0.10
#107
Pass EPA

Rushing

BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF defense
#56
FIU offense
#129
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
-0.09
#129
Rush EPA

Drive success

BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF defense
#48
FIU offense
#115
Success rates
38%
#48
39%
#115
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#91
-0.01
#124
EPA / play
1.29
#98
1.13
#116
Explosiveness
15%
#81
16%
#98
Havoc

Current key players

Buffalo
QBElijah Holmes
253 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
78.980/729
TEMichael Gelatko
1 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
64.6
Run blocking
59.6
Penalties
0
88.66/1017
LBZach Bergmann
23 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.0
Coverage
75.2
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
1
79.886/1796
WRChance Morrow
32 rec · 400 yds · 6 TD
77.087/2069
RBMessiah Burch
352 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0151/1044
LBStevie Bracey
19 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
82.5
Coverage
58.4
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.9217/1796
Availability reports · 9
  • Elijah Holmes · QBout · 2026-10-06

    Holmes is battling with a knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Jasaiah Gathings · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Gathings is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Bobby Mays · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Mays is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Terrell Richards · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Richards is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • James McNeil Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    McNeil Jr is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Terrance Shelton Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Shelton Jr. is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Alvin Jones III · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Jones is nursing a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Blake Sholder · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Sholder is nursing a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jeremiah Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

Florida International
QBZach Marker
92 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
72.7132/729
RBJayden Ford
11 yds · 0 TD · 11.0 YPC
89.013/1044
WRMaguire Anderson
24 rec · 383 yds · 2 TD
79.362/2069
LBCam Davis
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.4
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
78.3115/1796
DBRyan Gadson
15 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.7
Coverage
76.9
Targets allowed
20
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
66.9
Missed tackles
2
77.0127/2969
DBJai-Ayviauynn Celestine
13 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
83.8
Coverage
73.1
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
33.3
Missed tackles
2
76.2151/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Ayden Passley · TEQues. · 2026-10-08

    Passley is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Jacksonville St. on Tuesday, Octob

  • Kevin Schaeffer · TEQues. · 2026-10-08

    Schaeffer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Jacksonville St. on Tuesday, Octo

  • Noah Sidan · KQues. · 2026-10-08

    Sidan is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Jacksonville St. on Tuesday, October

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BUF
FIU
vs
Offense
78.9
#62 of 138
QB
72.7
#92 of 138
74.5
#76 of 138
RB
74.8
#73 of 138
65.1
#129 of 138
WR
71.2
#72 of 138
88.6
#6 of 138
TE
60.0
#120 of 138
63.5
#110 of 138
OL
62.6
#118 of 138
Defense
76.3
#43 of 138
DL
76.1
#45 of 138
75.7
#54 of 138
LB
75.9
#52 of 138
64.7
#135 of 138
DB
72.6
#63 of 138
Common opponents