AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Wed Nov 11 · 5:00 AM
#116Away
Buffalo
0-0 · AVR 33.9
28p
#136Home
Ball State
0-0 · AVR 22.6
24p
BUF 60%40% BALL
Spread
BUF -3.8
Total
52
Moneyline
BUF-152BALL+152
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BUF advantageevenBALL advantage →
BUF throw
BUF protection #76
even
BUF run
BUF +6
BALL throw
BUF pass rush #123
BUF +22
BALL run
BUF front #123BUF linebackers #14
BUF +46

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BALL runs
Johnny Thompson Jr.
vs
SaVeon Brown
RB · BALL
MLB · BUF
49.3
78.1
BUF +29
when BALL throws
Jabari Smith Jr.
vs
Miles Greer
X · BALL
CB1 · BUF
47.0
76.3
BUF +29
when BUF runs
Terrance Shelton Jr.
vs
Jared Badie
RB · BUF
MLB · BALL
46.0
60.1
BALL +14
when BUF throws
Chance Morrow
vs
Quentavius Scandrett
X · BUF
CB1 · BALL
35.9
55.4
BALL +19
off the edge· hunting Wright
Gabriel Arena
vs
Maverick Gracio
LT · BUF
EDGE · BALL
40.5
47.5
BALL +7
off the edge· hunting Luster
Chris Hood
vs
Jacari Bennett
LT · BALL
EDGE · BUF
12.8
62.0
BUF +49

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Buffalo
LBSaVeon Brown
78.179/878
SMiles Greer
76.3135/1427
CBKobi Blackwell
73.2174/1427
SXavier Leonard
66.6320/1427
CBOliver Bridges
57.6542/1427
CBMikey Crawford
55.6602/1427
Ball State
LBJared Badie
60.1282/878
DBQuentavius Scandrett
55.4609/1427
DBWillizhuan Yates
53.6666/1427
QBKeldric Luster
53.0122/308
RBJohnny Thompson Jr.
49.3310/514
WRJabari Smith Jr.
47.0410/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Buffalo
opponent
Ball State
home+0.5
Bowling Green#114
-10.8away
home+20.3
Massachusetts#138
+9.1away
home+0.4
Central Michigan#107
-5.9home
away-12.3
Toledo#73
-13.6home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBUF +3.895% interval: -27.7 to 20.280% interval: -21.1 to 13.6-21+14BUF wins 60%BALL wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BUF 28–21 BALLBALL 18–53 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 21–49 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 25–46 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBALL 28–42 BUF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBALL 32–39 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBALL 35–35 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBALL 39–32 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBALL 42–28 BUF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBALL 46–25 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 14–49 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 18–46 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBALL 21–42 BUF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBALL 25–39 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBALL 28–35 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBALL 32–32 BUF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBALL 35–28 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBALL 39–25 BUF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBALL 42–21 BUF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBALL 11–46 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 14–42 BUF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBALL 18–39 BUF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBALL 21–35 BUF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBALL 25–32 BUF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBALL 28–28 BUF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBALL 32–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBALL 35–21 BUF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBALL 39–18 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBALL 7–42 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 11–39 BUF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBALL 14–35 BUF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBALL 18–32 BUF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBALL 21–28 BUF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBALL 25–25 BUF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBALL 28–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBALL 32–18 BUF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBALL 35–14 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBALL 4–39 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 7–35 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBALL 11–32 BUF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBALL 14–28 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBALL 18–25 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBALL 21–21 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBALL 25–18 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBALL 28–14 BUF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBALL 32–11 BUF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBALL 0–35 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 4–32 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 7–28 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBALL 11–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBALL 14–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBALL 18–18 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBALL 21–14 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBALL 25–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBALL 28–7 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)BALL 0–28 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBALL 4–25 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBALL 7–21 BUF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBALL 11–18 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBALL 14–14 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBALL 18–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBALL 21–7 BUF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBALL 25–4 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes70635649423528totalBUF +35BUF +21BUF +7BALL +7BALL +21margin →