Passing
BUF offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BUF offense
- #118
- BALL defense
- #132
EPA comparison
0.05
#118
0.45
#132
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 11 · Wed Nov 11 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
BUF 50.8%49.2% BALL
- Projected margin
- BUF by 0.2
- Projected total
- 53
- 80% outcome range
- BUF 19 to BALL 18
- Win probability
- BUF 50.8%
Current team profiles
Buffalo
Ball StateWhen Buffalo has the ball
Rushing
BUF offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BUF offense
- #105
- BALL defense
- #133
EPA comparison
0.02
#105
0.25
#133
Rush EPA
Drive success
BALL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BUF offense
- #130
- BALL defense
- #114
Success rates
35%
#130
45%
#114
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#114
0.32
#136
EPA / play
1.19
#93
1.44
#135
Explosiveness
16%
#94
13%
#113
Havoc
When Ball State has the ball
Passing
BALL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BUF defense
- #96
- BALL offense
- #92
EPA comparison
0.24
#96
0.13
#92
Pass EPA
Rushing
BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BUF defense
- #56
- BALL offense
- #100
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.03
#100
Rush EPA
Drive success
BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BUF defense
- #48
- BALL offense
- #128
Success rates
38%
#48
36%
#128
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#91
0.05
#107
EPA / play
1.29
#98
1.38
#13
Explosiveness
15%
#81
18%
#125
Havoc
Current key players
BuffaloQBElijah Holmes
253 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
78.980/729
TEMichael Gelatko
1 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 64.6
- Run blocking
- 59.6
- Penalties
- 0
88.66/1017
LBZach Bergmann
23 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 85.0
- Coverage
- 75.2
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 11
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
79.886/1796
WRChance Morrow
32 rec · 400 yds · 6 TD
77.087/2069
RBMessiah Burch
352 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0151/1044
LBStevie Bracey
19 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.5
- Coverage
- 58.4
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
73.9217/1796
Availability reports · 9
- Elijah Holmes · QBout · 2026-10-06
Holmes is battling with a knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Jasaiah Gathings · WRout · 2026-10-10
Gathings is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- Bobby Mays · WRout · 2026-10-10
Mays is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.
- Terrell Richards · WRout · 2026-10-10
Richards is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- James McNeil Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
McNeil Jr is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Terrance Shelton Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Shelton Jr. is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Alvin Jones III · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Jones is nursing a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Blake Sholder · KQues. · 2026-10-10
Sholder is nursing a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jeremiah Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
Ball StateQBKeldric Luster
662 yds · 5 TD · 3 INT
67.4185/729
RBElijah Jackson
25 yds · 0 TD · 6.2 YPC
80.668/1044
DBGabe Aramboles
5 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.6
- Coverage
- 71.7
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 6
- Passer rating allowed
- 91.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.2220/2969
LBKaleb Stewart
23 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.9
- Coverage
- 60.9
- Pressures
- 4
- Pass-rush snaps
- 7
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
72.9260/1796
DBQuentavius Scandrett
25 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 66.2
- Coverage
- 74.3
- Targets allowed
- 9
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 60
- Passer rating allowed
- 94.4
- Missed tackles
- 3
70.9387/2969
LBLayton Starks
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.6
- Coverage
- 66.6
- Pressures
- 8
- Pass-rush snaps
- 66
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
68.2443/1796
Availability reports · 6
- Isaiah Thacker · WRout · 2026-10-10
Thacker is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Derion Talbert · WRout · 2026-09-26
Talbert is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Cole Coonrod · TEout · 2026-10-10
Coonrod is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Jalen Bonds · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Bonds is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bowling Green on Saturday, October 17th.
- Mason Riggins · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Riggins is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will play against the Bowling Green on Saturday, October 17th.
- Char'Rese Breveard · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Breveard is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Bowling Green on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
BUFBuffalo
BALLBall State
vs
Offense
78.9
#62 of 138
QB
Quarterback
67.4
#112 of 138
74.5
#76 of 138
RB
Running backs
80.2
#35 of 138
65.1
#129 of 138
WR
Receivers
64.8
#130 of 138
88.6
#6 of 138
TE
Tight ends
58.7
#130 of 138
63.5
#110 of 138
OL
Offensive line
66.4
#86 of 138
Defense
76.3
#43 of 138
DL
Defensive line
68.0
#121 of 138
75.7
#54 of 138
LB
Linebackers
68.5
#116 of 138
64.7
#135 of 138
DB
Secondary
67.8
#118 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Buffalo
opponent
Ball State
Aaway+15.0
TOLToledo#80-15.0Hhome
Hhome+2.8
BGSUBowling Green#144-5.4Aaway
Hhome+10.2
MASSMassachusetts#134+2.1Aaway
Hhome-1.6
CMUCentral Michigan#138-4.4Hhome