AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 4:00 PM
#116Away
Buffalo
0-0 · AVR 33.9
13p
#21Home
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 67.5
41p
BUF 2%98% PSU
Spread
PSU -28.7
Total
54
Moneyline
BUF—PSU—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BUF advantageevenPSU advantage →
BUF throw
BUF protection #76PSU coverage #19
PSU +54
BUF run
PSU +29
PSU throw
BUF pass rush #123
PSU +44
PSU run
BUF front #123BUF linebackers #14
PSU +31

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when PSU runs
Carson Hansen
vs
SaVeon Brown
RB · PSU
MLB · BUF
79.7
78.1
dead even
when PSU throws
Brett Eskildsen
vs
Miles Greer
X · PSU
CB1 · BUF
71.0
76.3
BUF +5
over the middle
Andrew Rappleyea
vs
Oliver Bridges
TE · PSU
FS · BUF
66.3
57.6
PSU +9
when BUF throws
Chance Morrow
vs
Marcus Neal Jr.
X · BUF
CB1 · PSU
35.9
81.6
PSU +46
when BUF runs
Terrance Shelton Jr.
vs
Caleb Bacon
RB · BUF
MLB · PSU
46.0
71.4
PSU +25
off the edge· hunting Wright
Gabriel Arena
vs
Yvan Kemajou
LT · BUF
EDGE · PSU
40.5
63.1
PSU +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Buffalo
LBSaVeon Brown
78.179/878
SMiles Greer
76.3135/1427
CBKobi Blackwell
73.2174/1427
SXavier Leonard
66.6320/1427
CBOliver Bridges
57.6542/1427
CBMikey Crawford
55.6602/1427
Penn State
QBRocco Becht
90.14/308
SMarcus Neal Jr.
81.674/1427
CBDaryus Dixson
80.389/1427
RBCarson Hansen
79.724/514
CBJahmir Joseph
74.1162/1427
LBCaleb Bacon
71.4129/878

also out — Alex Tatsch (LB), Alex Manske (QB), Eagles CB (CB), OL commit (OL), Penn State Football 2027 Commit

Projected margin

80% between 11 and 46
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPSU +28.795% interval: 4.8 to 52.680% interval: 11.3 to 46.1+11+46BUF wins 2%PSU wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PSU 42–14 BUFPSU 39–39 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 42–35 BUF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 46–32 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPSU 49–28 BUF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 53–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPSU 56–21 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 60–18 BUF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 63–14 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 67–11 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 35–35 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 39–32 BUF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPSU 42–28 BUF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 46–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPSU 49–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPSU 53–18 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPSU 56–14 BUF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 60–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 63–7 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 32–32 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 35–28 BUF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPSU 39–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 42–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPSU 46–18 BUF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPSU 49–14 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPSU 53–11 BUF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 56–7 BUF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPSU 60–4 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 28–28 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 32–25 BUF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPSU 35–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPSU 39–18 BUF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 42–14 BUF neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesPSU 46–11 BUF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPSU 49–7 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 53–4 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPSU 56–0 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 25–25 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 28–21 BUF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPSU 32–18 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPSU 35–14 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPSU 39–11 BUF neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesPSU 42–7 BUF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPSU 46–4 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 49–0 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)PSU 21–21 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 25–18 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 28–14 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 32–11 BUF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPSU 35–7 BUF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 39–4 BUF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPSU 42–0 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)PSU 18–18 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 21–14 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 25–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPSU 28–7 BUF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 32–4 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPSU 35–0 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKPSU +14PSU +28PSU +42PSU +56margin →