CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET
#145Away
Buffalo
1-1 · AVR 46.1
13
Final
#17Home
Penn State
2-0 · AVR 73.5
55
Forecast win probability
BUF 0.1%99.9% PSU
Projected margin
PSU by 38.8
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
PSU 21 to PSU 56
Win probability
PSU 99.9%
FinalBUF 13 · PSU 55model had +38.8, off by 3.2

Current team profiles

Buffalo
Penn State

When Buffalo has the ball

Passing

PSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF offense
#118
PSU defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.05
#118
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

BUF offense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF offense
#105
PSU defense
#112
EPA comparison
0.02
#105
0.15
#112
Rush EPA

Drive success

PSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF offense
#130
PSU defense
#58
Success rates
35%
#130
39%
#58
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#114
0.06
#64
EPA / play
1.19
#93
1.22
#73
Explosiveness
16%
#94
17%
#45
Havoc

When Penn State has the ball

Passing

PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF defense
#96
PSU offense
#33
EPA comparison
0.24
#96
0.36
#33
Pass EPA

Rushing

BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF defense
#56
PSU offense
#93
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF defense
#48
PSU offense
#90
Success rates
38%
#48
42%
#90
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#91
0.16
#67
EPA / play
1.29
#98
1.23
#70
Explosiveness
15%
#81
14%
#45
Havoc

Current key players

Buffalo
QBElijah Holmes
253 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
78.980/729
TEMichael Gelatko
1 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
64.6
Run blocking
59.6
Penalties
0
88.66/1017
LBZach Bergmann
23 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.0
Coverage
75.2
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
1
79.886/1796
WRChance Morrow
32 rec · 400 yds · 6 TD
77.087/2069
RBMessiah Burch
352 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0151/1044
LBStevie Bracey
19 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
82.5
Coverage
58.4
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.9217/1796
Availability reports · 9
  • Elijah Holmes · QBout · 2026-10-06

    Holmes is battling with a knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Jasaiah Gathings · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Gathings is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Bobby Mays · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Mays is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Terrell Richards · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Richards is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • James McNeil Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    McNeil Jr is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Terrance Shelton Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Shelton Jr. is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Alvin Jones III · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Jones is nursing a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Blake Sholder · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Sholder is nursing a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jeremiah Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

Penn State
QBAlex Manske
102 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
67.2189/729
WRKoby Howard
12 rec · 344 yds · 2 TD
93.02/2069
SBryson Williams
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.1
Coverage
93.6
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
1
92.82/2969
LBTony Rojas
34 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.6
Coverage
87.8
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
25
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
85.038/1796
RBCam Wallace
125 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 YPC
77.4126/1044
CBDaryus Dixson
10 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
79.7
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
33
Passer rating allowed
14.8
Missed tackles
1
77.2114/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Koby Howard · WRout · 2026-09-23

    Howard is tending to an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Max Granville · DLout · 2026-09-12

    Granville has been shut down for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury.

  • Brian Kortovich · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Kortovich is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cristiano Rosa · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rosa is dealing with an undisclosed injury and, it is unclear if he will play Saturday against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17th.

  • D'Antae Sheffey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sheffey is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, Octob

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BUF
PSU
vs
Offense
78.9
#62 of 138
QB
67.2
#113 of 138
74.5
#76 of 138
RB
76.4
#60 of 138
65.1
#129 of 138
WR
79.8
#11 of 138
88.6
#6 of 138
TE
68.7
#73 of 138
63.5
#110 of 138
OL
71.1
#45 of 138
Defense
76.3
#43 of 138
DL
72.0
#85 of 138
75.7
#54 of 138
LB
78.5
#33 of 138
64.7
#135 of 138
DB
80.2
#1 of 138
Common opponents