CFB
Model
All rankings
Big Ten

Penn State

Nittany Lions3-311th in Big Ten
Beaver Stadium · University Park, PA · 106,572
TeamMiddle of the pack
OffensePassing attack · averageweak point: run game, 93rd
DefenseBuilt to defend the pass · averageweak point: run defense, 112th

The season

Best win
W 27-9 @ #108 Temple
Wk 2 · Sep 12 · model had 88%
Worst loss
L 20-24 vs #32 Wisconsin
Wk 4 · Sep 26 · lost as a 84% favorite

Schedule

model 5/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsMarshall
    W 45–0
    Win chance 88%Model margin +15.9Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    atTemple
    W 27–9
    Win chance 88%Model margin +15.5Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsBuffalo
    W 55–13
    Win chance >99%Model margin +38.8Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsWisconsin
    L 20–24
    Win chance 84%Model margin +13.3Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 2
    atNorthwestern
    L 13–34
    Win chance 47%Model margin -1.0Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    vsUSC
    L 23–31
    Win chance 48%Model margin -0.5Game details
  7. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atMichigan
    Win chance 59%Model margin +3.0Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsPurdue
    Win chance 93%Model margin +19.7Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atWashington
    Win chance 55%Model margin +1.6Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsMinnesota
    Win chance 90%Model margin +17.6Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsRutgers
    Win chance 93%Model margin +19.5Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atMaryland
    Win chance 84%Model margin +13.2Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
46
#81 of 138
Defense efficiency
59
#54 of 138
Efficiency
#670.16
EPA / play
#640.06
#330.36
Pass
#200.00
#930.04
Rush
#1120.15
#9042%
Success
#5839%
Big plays & havoc
#701.23
Explosive
#731.22
#4514%
Havoc
#4517%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB113th
RB60th
WR11th
TE73rd
OL45th
DL85th
LB33rd
DB1st

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Alex ManskeFR
102 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
67.2
189th QB
RB
Cam WallaceJR
125 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 YPC
77.4
126th RB
WR
Koby HowardSO
12 rec · 344 yds · 2 TD
93.0
2nd WR
WR
Chase SowellSR
19 rec · 264 yds · 2 TD
76.5
99th WR
TE
Benjamin BrahmerSR
16 rec · 178 yds · 3 TD
68.7
115th TE
Defense
LB
Tony RojasJR
34 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
85.0
38th LB
LB
Cael BrezinaJR
19 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
75.7
165th LB
S
Bryson WilliamsFR
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
92.8
2nd DB
CB
Daryus DixsonSO
10 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
77.2
114th DB
S
Marcus Neal Jr.JR
19 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
77.2
116th DB

Injury report

2 out
out
Koby HowardWR

Howard is tending to an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

93.009-23
out
Max GranvilleDL

Granville has been shut down for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury.

54.209-12
Ques.
Brian KortovichTE

Kortovich is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17t

39.410-11
Ques.
Cristiano RosaK

Rosa is dealing with an undisclosed injury and, it is unclear if he will play Saturday against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17th.

—10-11
Ques.
D'Antae SheffeyRB

Sheffey is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, Octob

—10-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atMichigan
    Playoff chance if win
    26.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    10.3%
  2. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsPurdue
    Playoff chance if win
    20.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.8%
  3. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atWashington
    Playoff chance if win
    26.4%
    Playoff chance if loss
    11.0%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsMinnesota
    Playoff chance if win
    21.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    7.2%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsRutgers
    Playoff chance if win
    20.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    6.8%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atMaryland
    Playoff chance if win
    22.2%
    Playoff chance if loss
    7.6%

Past seasons

Year by year
+3.1 points since 2022
6070809010074.2202282.1202379.7202477.32025
2022 74.22023 82.12024 79.72025 77.3

2025

6-6
D-I rank
#10
Rating
77.3
Listed games · 12
WWWLLLLLLWWW
381 pts scored257 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs NevadaW 46–11
  2. W2 vs Florida InternationalW 34–0
  3. W3 vs VillanovaW 52–6
  4. W5 vs OregonL 24–30
  5. W6 at UCLAL 37–42
  6. W7 vs NorthwesternL 21–22
  7. W8 at IowaL 24–25
  8. W10 at Ohio StateL 14–38
  9. W11 vs IndianaL 24–27
  10. W12 at Michigan StateW 28–10
  11. W13 vs NebraskaW 37–10
  12. W14 at RutgersW 40–36

2024

11-2
D-I rank
#8
Rating
79.7
Listed games · 13
WWWWWWWLWWWWL
437 pts scored213 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at West VirginiaW 34–12
  2. W2 vs Bowling GreenW 34–27
  3. W4 vs Kent StateW 56–0
  4. W5 vs IllinoisW 21–7
  5. W6 vs UCLAW 27–11
  6. W7 at USCW 33–30
  7. W9 at WisconsinW 28–13
  8. W10 vs Ohio StateL 13–20
  9. W11 vs WashingtonW 35–6
  10. W12 at PurdueW 49–10
  11. W13 at MinnesotaW 26–25
  12. W14 vs MarylandW 44–7
  13. W15 vs OregonL 37–45

2023

10-2
D-I rank
#6
Rating
82.1
Listed games · 12
WWWWWWLWWLWW
446 pts scored137 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs West VirginiaW 38–15
  2. W2 vs DelawareW 63–7
  3. W3 at IllinoisW 30–13
  4. W4 vs IowaW 31–0
  5. W5 at NorthwesternW 41–13
  6. W7 vs MassachusettsW 63–0
  7. W8 at Ohio StateL 12–20
  8. W9 vs IndianaW 33–24
  9. W10 at MarylandW 51–15
  10. W11 vs MichiganL 15–24
  11. W12 vs RutgersW 27–6
  12. W13 vs Michigan StateW 42–0

2022

10-2
D-I rank
#12
Rating
74.2
Listed games · 12
WWWWWLWLWWWW
430 pts scored216 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at PurdueW 35–31
  2. W2 vs OhioW 46–10
  3. W3 at AuburnW 41–12
  4. W4 vs Central MichiganW 33–14
  5. W5 vs NorthwesternW 17–7
  6. W7 at MichiganL 17–41
  7. W8 vs MinnesotaW 45–17
  8. W9 vs Ohio StateL 31–44
  9. W10 at IndianaW 45–14
  10. W11 vs MarylandW 30–0
  11. W12 at RutgersW 55–10
  12. W13 vs Michigan StateW 35–16