AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3
#21Away
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 67.5
27p
#37Home
Northwestern
0-0 · AVR 59.3
24p
PSU 58%42% NU
Spread
PSU -2.9
Total
51
Moneyline
PSU-139NU+139
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PSU advantageevenNU advantage →
PSU throw
PSU +36
PSU run
PSU +20
NU throw
PSU coverage #19PSU pass rush #93
even
NU run
NU +38

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NU throws
Griffin Wilde
vs
Marcus Neal Jr.
X · NU
CB1 · PSU
81.2
81.6
dead even
when PSU runs
Carson Hansen
vs
Kobie McKinzie
RB · PSU
MLB · NU
79.7
82.9
NU +3
when NU runs
Caleb Komolafe
vs
Caleb Bacon
RB · NU
MLB · PSU
77.0
71.4
NU +6
when PSU throws
Brett Eskildsen
vs
Brenden Deasfernandes
X · PSU
CB1 · NU
71.0
73.9
dead even
over the middle
Alex Honig
vs
Jeremiah Cooper
TE · NU
FS · PSU
59.6
71.5
PSU +12
over the middle
Andrew Rappleyea
vs
Josh Fussell
TE · PSU
FS · NU
66.3
51.5
PSU +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Penn State
QBRocco Becht
90.14/308
SMarcus Neal Jr.
81.674/1427
CBDaryus Dixson
80.389/1427
RBCarson Hansen
79.724/514
CBJahmir Joseph
74.1162/1427
LBCaleb Bacon
71.4129/878

also out — Alex Tatsch (LB), Alex Manske (QB), Eagles CB (CB), OL commit (OL), Penn State Football 2027 Commit

Northwestern
LBKobie McKinzie
82.934/878
WRGriffin Wilde
81.219/777
RBCaleb Komolafe
77.033/514
DBBrenden Deasfernandes
73.9166/1427
DBBraden Turner
72.0190/1427
LBBraydon Brus
68.6166/878

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Penn State
opponent
Northwestern
home+13.3
Minnesota#54
+2.9away
home+12.7
Rutgers#48
+7.3home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPSU +2.995% interval: -26.8 to 2180% interval: -20.3 to 14.5-20+15PSU wins 58%NU wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NU 25–25 PSUNU 21–49 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 25–46 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNU 28–42 PSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNU 32–39 PSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNU 35–35 PSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNU 39–32 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNU 42–28 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 46–25 PSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNU 49–21 PSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 18–46 PSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNU 21–42 PSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNU 25–39 PSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNU 28–35 PSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNU 32–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNU 35–28 PSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNU 39–25 PSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 42–21 PSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 46–18 PSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 14–42 PSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 18–39 PSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 21–35 PSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNU 25–32 PSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNU 28–28 PSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNU 32–25 PSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 35–21 PSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNU 39–18 PSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNU 42–14 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 11–39 PSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 14–35 PSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNU 18–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNU 21–28 PSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNU 25–25 PSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNU 28–21 PSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNU 32–18 PSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNU 35–14 PSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNU 39–11 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 7–35 PSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNU 11–32 PSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNU 14–28 PSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNU 18–25 PSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNU 21–21 PSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNU 25–18 PSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNU 28–14 PSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNU 32–11 PSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 35–7 PSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 4–32 PSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNU 7–28 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 11–25 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNU 14–21 PSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNU 18–18 PSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 21–14 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 25–11 PSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNU 28–7 PSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNU 32–4 PSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 0–28 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 4–25 PSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNU 7–21 PSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 11–18 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNU 14–14 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNU 18–11 PSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNU 21–7 PSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNU 25–4 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 28–0 PSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalPSU +28PSU +14PKNU +14NU +28margin →