Passing
PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- PSU offense
- #33
- NU defense
- #55
EPA comparison
0.36
#33
0.10
#55
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 5 · Fri Oct 2 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
PSU 49.3%50.7% NU
- Projected margin
- NU by 1.0
- Projected total
- 48
- 80% outcome range
- PSU 18 to NU 21
- Win probability
- NU 50.7%
FinalPSU 13 · NU 34model had +1.0, off by 20.0
Current team profiles
Penn State
NorthwesternWhen Penn State has the ball
Rushing
NU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- PSU offense
- #93
- NU defense
- #73
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
0.05
#73
Rush EPA
Drive success
PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- PSU offense
- #90
- NU defense
- #104
Success rates
42%
#90
43%
#104
Success rate
More metrics
0.16
#67
0.06
#69
EPA / play
1.23
#70
1.11
#26
Explosiveness
14%
#45
17%
#49
Havoc
When Northwestern has the ball
Passing
NU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- PSU defense
- #20
- NU offense
- #9
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.52
#9
Pass EPA
Rushing
NU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- PSU defense
- #112
- NU offense
- #21
EPA comparison
0.15
#112
0.23
#21
Rush EPA
Drive success
NU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- PSU defense
- #58
- NU offense
- #21
Success rates
39%
#58
49%
#21
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#64
0.33
#8
EPA / play
1.22
#73
1.31
#29
Explosiveness
17%
#45
15%
#69
Havoc
Current key players
Penn StateQBAlex Manske
102 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
67.2189/729
WRKoby Howard
12 rec · 344 yds · 2 TD
93.02/2069
SBryson Williams
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.1
- Coverage
- 93.6
- Targets allowed
- 0
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Missed tackles
- 1
92.82/2969
LBTony Rojas
34 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.6
- Coverage
- 87.8
- Pressures
- 8
- Pass-rush snaps
- 25
- Missed tackles
- 4
- Forced fumbles
- 0
85.038/1796
RBCam Wallace
125 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 YPC
77.4126/1044
CBDaryus Dixson
10 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 62.7
- Coverage
- 79.7
- Targets allowed
- 9
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 33
- Passer rating allowed
- 14.8
- Missed tackles
- 1
77.2114/2969
Availability reports · 5
- Koby Howard · WRout · 2026-09-23
Howard is tending to an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- Max Granville · DLout · 2026-09-12
Granville has been shut down for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury.
- Brian Kortovich · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Kortovich is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17t
- Cristiano Rosa · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Rosa is dealing with an undisclosed injury and, it is unclear if he will play Saturday against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17th.
- D'Antae Sheffey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Sheffey is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, Octob
NorthwesternQBAidan Chiles
900 yds · 6 TD · 0 INT
73.8122/729
RBJoseph Himon II
277 yds · 3 TD · 13.8 YPC
86.625/1044
TELuke Dehnicke
11 rec · 208 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 35.0
- Run blocking
- 60.8
- Penalties
- 1
85.011/1017
DBBraden Turner
15 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.0
- Coverage
- 78.9
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 8
- Yards allowed
- 100
- Passer rating allowed
- 73.5
- Missed tackles
- 1
78.389/2969
WRGriffin Wilde
16 rec · 281 yds · 2 TD
74.2140/2069
DBRobert Fitzgerald
42 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.6
- Coverage
- 74.4
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 9
- Passer rating allowed
- 0.0
- Missed tackles
- 9
74.0227/2969
Availability reports · 7
- Josh Fussell · CBout · 2026-10-10
Fussell is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- Tom McGlinchey · TEout · 2026-10-10
McGlinchey is sidelined with an undisclosed injury and there is no timetable for return.
- Luke Dehnicke · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Dehnicke is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
- Braden Turner · CBQues. · 2026-10-10
Turner is bothered by a Undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
- Chase Farrell · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Farrell has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will be available against the MI State on Saturday,
- Chris Petrucci · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Petrucci has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jaden McDuffie · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
McDuffie is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be active against the MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
PSUPenn State
NUNorthwestern
vs
Offense
67.2
#113 of 138
QB
Quarterback
73.8
#87 of 138
76.4
#60 of 138
RB
Running backs
80.3
#34 of 138
79.8
#11 of 138
WR
Receivers
66.2
#126 of 138
68.7
#73 of 138
TE
Tight ends
85.0
#11 of 138
71.1
#45 of 138
OL
Offensive line
65.8
#89 of 138
Defense
72.0
#85 of 138
DL
Defensive line
68.7
#118 of 138
78.5
#33 of 138
LB
Linebackers
68.7
#115 of 138
80.2
#1 of 138
DB
Secondary
71.6
#75 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Penn State
opponent
Northwestern
Hhome+17.6
MINNMinnesota#54+8.5Aaway
Hhome+19.5
RUTGRutgers#89+15.7Hhome