CFB
Model
All rankings
Big Ten

Northwestern

Wildcats4-15th in Big Ten
Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · Evanston, IL · 12,023
TeamCarried by the offense
OffenseEfficient and explosive · elite
DefenseBend-don't-break · averageweak point: getting off the field, 104th

The season

Best win
W 34-13 vs #43 Penn State
Wk 5 · Oct 2 · model had 53%
Worst loss
L 23-29 @ #5 Indiana
Wk 4 · Sep 25 · model had 13%

Schedule

model 5/5 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsSouth Dakota State
    W 34–18
    Win chance 98%Model margin +28.0Game details
  2. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsColorado
    W 41–7
    Win chance 56%Model margin +2.1Game details
  3. Week 4 · Sep 25
    atIndiana
    L 23–29
    Win chance 13%Model margin -15.1Game details
  4. Week 5 · Oct 2
    vsPenn State
    W 34–13
    Win chance 53%Model margin +1.0Game details
  5. Week 6 · Oct 10
    vsBall State
    W 45–14
    Win chance >99%Model margin +37.3Game details
  6. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atMichigan State
    Win chance 75%Model margin +8.9Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsRutgers
    Win chance 88%Model margin +15.7Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atOregon
    Win chance 18%Model margin -12.2Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsIowa
    Win chance 57%Model margin +2.3Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atOhio State
    Win chance 10%Model margin -17.5Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    atMinnesota
    Win chance 74%Model margin +8.5Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsIllinois
    Win chance 69%Model margin +6.8Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
86
#7 of 138
Defense efficiency
46
#72 of 138
Efficiency
#80.33
EPA / play
#690.06
#90.52
Pass
#550.10
#210.23
Rush
#730.05
#2149%
Success
#10443%
Big plays & havoc
#291.31
Explosive
#261.11
#6915%
Havoc
#4917%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB87th
RB34th
WR126th
TE11th
OL89th
DL118th
LB115th
DB75th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Aidan ChilesSR
900 yds · 6 TD · 0 INT
73.8
122nd QB
RB
Joseph Himon IISR
277 yds · 3 TD · 13.8 YPC
86.6
25th RB
WR
Griffin WildeSR
16 rec · 281 yds · 2 TD
74.2
140th WR
WR
Drew WagnerJR
12 rec · 97 yds · 0 TD
63.1
565th WR
TE
Luke DehnickeSO
11 rec · 208 yds · 0 TD
85.0
11th TE
Defense
LB
Braydon BrusSR
29 tkl · 5.0 TFL · 3.0 sk
72.5
275th LB
LB
Miles CrutchleySR
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
69.7
381st LB
DB
Braden TurnerSR
15 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
78.3
89th DB
DB
Robert FitzgeraldSR
42 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
74.0
227th DB
DB
Josh FussellJR
10 tkl · 5 PD · 0 INT
71.0
381st DB

Injury report

2 out
out
Josh FussellCB

Fussell is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

71.010-10
out
Tom McGlincheyTE

McGlinchey is sidelined with an undisclosed injury and there is no timetable for return.

—10-10
Ques.
Luke DehnickeTE

Dehnicke is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.

85.010-10
Ques.
Braden TurnerCB

Turner is bothered by a Undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.

78.310-10
Ques.
Chase FarrellWR

Farrell has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will be available against the MI State on Saturday,

49.7202510-10
Ques.
Chris PetrucciTE

Petrucci has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.

62.4202510-10
Ques.
Jaden McDuffieWR

McDuffie is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be active against the MI State on Saturday, October 17th.

—10-10

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atMichigan State
    Playoff chance if win
    6.4%
    Playoff chance if loss
    1.6%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsRutgers
    Playoff chance if win
    5.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    1.0%
  3. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atOregon
    Playoff chance if win
    13.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    2.6%
  4. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsIowa
    Playoff chance if win
    7.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    1.7%
  5. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atOhio State
    Playoff chance if win
    14.4%
    Playoff chance if loss
    3.7%
  6. Week 12 · Nov 21
    atMinnesota
    Playoff chance if win
    6.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    1.5%
  7. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsIllinois
    Playoff chance if win
    6.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    1.5%

Past seasons

Year by year
+11.6 points since 2022
405060708054.8202256.5202358.3202466.42025
2022 54.82023 56.52024 58.32025 66.4

2025

6-6
D-I rank
#46
Rating
66.4
Listed games · 12
LWLWWWWLLLWL
270 pts scored251 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at TulaneL 3–23
  2. W2 vs Western IllinoisW 42–7
  3. W3 vs OregonL 14–34
  4. W5 vs UCLAW 17–14
  5. W6 vs UL MonroeW 42–7
  6. W7 at Penn StateW 22–21
  7. W8 vs PurdueW 19–0
  8. W9 at NebraskaL 21–28
  9. W11 at USCL 17–38
  10. W12 vs MichiganL 22–24
  11. W13 vs MinnesotaW 38–35
  12. W14 at IllinoisL 13–20

2024

4-8
D-I rank
#78
Rating
58.3
Listed games · 12
WLWLLWLLWLLL
214 pts scored316 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Miami (OH)W 13–6
  2. W2 vs DukeL 20–26
  3. W3 vs Eastern IllinoisW 31–7
  4. W4 at WashingtonL 5–24
  5. W6 vs IndianaL 24–41
  6. W7 at MarylandW 37–10
  7. W8 vs WisconsinL 3–23
  8. W9 at IowaL 14–40
  9. W10 at PurdueW 26–20
  10. W12 vs Ohio StateL 7–31
  11. W13 at MichiganL 6–50
  12. W14 vs IllinoisL 28–38

2023

7-5
D-I rank
#80
Rating
56.5
Listed games · 12
LWLWLWLWLWWW
273 pts scored286 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at RutgersL 7–24
  2. W2 vs UTEPW 38–7
  3. W3 at DukeL 14–38
  4. W4 vs MinnesotaW 37–34
  5. W5 vs Penn StateL 13–41
  6. W6 vs HowardW 23–20
  7. W8 at NebraskaL 9–17
  8. W9 vs MarylandW 33–27
  9. W10 vs IowaL 7–10
  10. W11 at WisconsinW 24–10
  11. W12 vs PurdueW 23–15
  12. W13 at IllinoisW 45–43

2022

1-11
D-I rank
#97
Rating
54.8
Listed games · 12
WLLLLLLLLLLL
165 pts scored340 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs NebraskaW 31–28
  2. W2 vs DukeL 23–31
  3. W3 vs Southern IllinoisL 24–31
  4. W4 vs Miami (OH)L 14–17
  5. W5 at Penn StateL 7–17
  6. W6 vs WisconsinL 7–42
  7. W8 at MarylandL 24–31
  8. W9 at IowaL 13–33
  9. W10 vs Ohio StateL 7–21
  10. W11 at MinnesotaL 3–31
  11. W12 at PurdueL 9–17
  12. W13 vs IllinoisL 3–41