AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#37Away
Northwestern
0-0 · AVR 59.3
15p
#2Home
Oregon
0-0 · AVR 85.1
38p
NU 6%94% ORE
Spread
ORE -22.9
Total
53
Moneyline
NU+1606ORE-1606
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NU advantageevenORE advantage →
NU throw
ORE +7
NU run
ORE linebackers #1
NU +14
ORE throw
ORE +35
ORE run
ORE +27

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NU throws
Griffin Wilde
vs
Brandon Finney Jr.
X · NU
CB1 · ORE
81.2
88.9
ORE +8
when NU runs
Caleb Komolafe
vs
Teitum Tuioti
RB · NU
MLB · ORE
77.0
91.9
ORE +15
when ORE runs
Jordon Davison
vs
Kobie McKinzie
RB · ORE
MLB · NU
79.1
82.9
NU +4
off the edge· hunting Moore
Iapani Laloulu
vs
Michael Kilbane
LT · ORE
EDGE · NU
79.3
81.1
dead even
when ORE throws
Jeremiah McClellan
vs
Brenden Deasfernandes
X · ORE
CB1 · NU
75.6
73.9
dead even
over the middle
Jamari Johnson
vs
Josh Fussell
TE · ORE
FS · NU
84.5
51.5
ORE +33

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northwestern
LBKobie McKinzie
82.934/878
WRGriffin Wilde
81.219/777
RBCaleb Komolafe
77.033/514
DBBrenden Deasfernandes
73.9166/1427
DBBraden Turner
72.0190/1427
LBBraydon Brus
68.6166/878
Oregon
LBTeitum Tuioti
91.97/878
LBMatayo Uiagalelei
90.610/878
DBBrandon Finney Jr.
88.917/1427
TEJamari Johnson
84.51/287
DBPeyton Woodyard
81.377/1427
QBDante Moorequestionable
79.922/308

also out — Surprise Player Standing, Brayden Platt (LB), J. Davison (RB), Tony Cumberland

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Northwestern
opponent
Oregon
away+7.5
Michigan State#65
+27.9away
away-25.4
Ohio State#1
-5.0away
home+3.2
Illinois#35
+18.6away

Projected margin

80% between 6 and 40
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKORE +22.995% interval: -1 to 46.880% interval: 5.5 to 40.3+6+40NU wins 6%ORE wins 94%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ORE 39–18 NUORE 35–42 NU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesORE 39–39 NU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 42–35 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 46–32 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORE 49–28 NU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORE 53–25 NU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 56–21 NU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 60–18 NU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 63–14 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 32–39 NU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORE 35–35 NU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 39–32 NU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 42–28 NU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 46–25 NU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORE 49–21 NU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORE 53–18 NU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 56–14 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 60–11 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 28–35 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 32–32 NU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORE 35–28 NU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORE 39–25 NU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORE 42–21 NU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesORE 46–18 NU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 49–14 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORE 53–11 NU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORE 56–7 NU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 25–32 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 28–28 NU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORE 32–25 NU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORE 35–21 NU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesORE 39–18 NU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesORE 42–14 NU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORE 46–11 NU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORE 49–7 NU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORE 53–4 NU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORE 21–28 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 25–25 NU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORE 28–21 NU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORE 32–18 NU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesORE 35–14 NU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesORE 39–11 NU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORE 42–7 NU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORE 46–4 NU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORE 49–0 NU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORE 18–25 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 21–21 NU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORE 25–18 NU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORE 28–14 NU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORE 32–11 NU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesORE 35–7 NU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 39–4 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORE 42–0 NU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ORE 14–21 NU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORE 18–18 NU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 21–14 NU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 25–11 NU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 28–7 NU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORE 32–4 NU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORE 35–0 NU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalNU +7ORE +7ORE +21ORE +35ORE +49margin →