AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26
#37Away
Northwestern
0-0 · AVR 59.3
19p
#7Home
Indiana
0-0 · AVR 76.7
33p
NU 17%83% IU
Spread
IU -14.0
Total
52
Moneyline
NU+478IU-478
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NU advantageevenIU advantage →
NU throw
IU +20
NU run
IU +5
IU throw
IU +33
IU run
IU +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hoover
Carter Smith
vs
Michael Kilbane
LT · IU
EDGE · NU
94.5
81.1
IU +13
when NU runs
Caleb Komolafe
vs
Rolijah Hardy
RB · NU
MLB · IU
77.0
93.9
IU +17
when NU throws
Griffin Wilde
vs
Amare Ferrell
X · NU
CB1 · IU
81.2
86.8
IU +6
when IU runs
Turbo Richard
vs
Kobie McKinzie
RB · IU
MLB · NU
77.5
82.9
NU +5
when IU throws
Shazz Preston
vs
Brenden Deasfernandes
X · IU
CB1 · NU
78.0
73.9
IU +4
over the middle
Alex Honig
vs
Garrett Reese
TE · NU
FS · IU
59.6
63.5
IU +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northwestern
LBKobie McKinzie
82.934/878
WRGriffin Wilde
81.219/777
RBCaleb Komolafe
77.033/514
DBBrenden Deasfernandes
73.9166/1427
DBBraden Turner
72.0190/1427
LBBraydon Brus
68.6166/878
Indiana
LBRolijah Hardy
93.91/878
LBIsaiah Jonesprobable
93.53/878
DBAmare Ferrell
86.831/1427
DBJamari Sharpe
85.736/1427
QBJosh Hoover
80.220/308
WRShazz Preston
78.027/777

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Northwestern
opponent
Indiana
away-25.4
Ohio State#1
-8.9home
away+2.9
Minnesota#54
+19.4home
home+7.3
Rutgers#48
+13.8away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 31
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIU +14.095% interval: -9.9 to 37.980% interval: -3.4 to 31.4-3+31NU wins 17%IU wins 83%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IU 32–18 NUIU 28–42 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 32–39 NU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 35–35 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIU 39–32 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 42–28 NU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIU 46–25 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 49–21 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIU 53–18 NU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 56–14 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 25–39 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 28–35 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIU 32–32 NU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIU 35–28 NU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIU 39–25 NU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIU 42–21 NU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIU 46–18 NU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIU 49–14 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIU 53–11 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 21–35 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 25–32 NU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIU 28–28 NU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 32–25 NU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIU 35–21 NU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesIU 39–18 NU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIU 42–14 NU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 46–11 NU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIU 49–7 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 18–32 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 21–28 NU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIU 25–25 NU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 28–21 NU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIU 32–18 NU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesIU 35–14 NU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIU 39–11 NU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 42–7 NU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIU 46–4 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 14–28 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 18–25 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIU 21–21 NU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIU 25–18 NU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 28–14 NU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIU 32–11 NU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 35–7 NU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIU 39–4 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIU 42–0 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 11–25 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 14–21 NU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 18–18 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIU 21–14 NU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 25–11 NU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIU 28–7 NU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 32–4 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIU 35–0 NU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)IU 7–21 NU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 11–18 NU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 14–14 NU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIU 18–11 NU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 21–7 NU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIU 25–4 NU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 28–0 NU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalNU +14PKIU +14IU +28IU +42margin →